| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 0.00926118605787754 |
| beta | 1 |
| gamma | 0.929768627341831 |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 13 | 6000 | 6205.18162393162 | -205.181623931624 |
| 14 | 4500 | 4700.18653484721 | -200.186534847209 |
| 15 | 5300 | 5543.38374146668 | -243.383741466678 |
| 16 | 4000 | 4233.92686860528 | -233.926868605279 |
| 17 | 5600 | 5747.39113734889 | -147.391137348885 |
| 18 | 4600 | 4660.29181285404 | -60.2918128540414 |
| 19 | 6100 | 5827.60742437892 | 272.392575621081 |
| 20 | 5500 | 6000.52676624762 | -500.526766247624 |
| 21 | 5800 | 6694.98582010772 | -894.985820107719 |
| 22 | 6500 | 5765.00308507862 | 734.996914921378 |
| 23 | 6400 | 5452.75619994414 | 947.243800055858 |
| 24 | 7600 | 6876.24757377759 | 723.752426222411 |
| 25 | 5500 | 5607.0339578938 | -107.033957893802 |
| 26 | 4600 | 4110.24094600832 | 489.75905399168 |
| 27 | 5100 | 4929.11798264558 | 170.882017354417 |
| 28 | 3700 | 3645.12712942198 | 54.872870578019 |
| 29 | 5300 | 5256.57187856674 | 43.4281214332632 |
| 30 | 4100 | 4268.83199001845 | -168.831990018452 |
| 31 | 5800 | 5757.95201700596 | 42.0479829940359 |
| 32 | 5500 | 5230.97888275944 | 269.021117240562 |
| 33 | 4900 | 5590.55424857441 | -690.554248574411 |
| 34 | 7000 | 6187.1779373185 | 812.822062681497 |
| 35 | 6300 | 6095.12717189337 | 204.872828106634 |
| 36 | 7200 | 7322.95971563057 | -122.959715630571 |
| 37 | 5400 | 5289.86481161096 | 110.135188389037 |
| 38 | 5000 | 4356.08054953951 | 643.919450460486 |
| 39 | 4500 | 4895.33383949158 | -395.333839491585 |
| 40 | 3700 | 3506.67722339594 | 193.322776604065 |
| 41 | 4900 | 5117.58477824287 | -217.584778242875 |
| 42 | 4400 | 3938.20825618032 | 461.791743819679 |
| 43 | 6000 | 5639.56840383085 | 360.431596169152 |
| 44 | 5800 | 5339.71662835167 | 460.283371648332 |
| 45 | 5000 | 4834.0088881831 | 165.991111816899 |
| 46 | 6700 | 6848.21072112326 | -148.210721123255 |
| 47 | 6200 | 6203.14073057057 | -3.14073057056976 |
| 48 | 8000 | 7141.03314152905 | 858.966858470947 |
| 49 | 6400 | 5354.81489776577 | 1045.18510223423 |
| 50 | 3900 | 4953.11520142444 | -1053.11520142444 |
| 51 | 3900 | 4535.344362286 | -635.344362285998 |
| 52 | 3900 | 3700.49662341759 | 199.50337658241 |
| 53 | 4600 | 4946.79391724362 | -346.793917243618 |
| 54 | 4600 | 4404.68038953215 | 195.319610467852 |
| 55 | 6200 | 6020.38273996362 | 179.61726003638 |
| 56 | 5700 | 5819.33985079777 | -119.339850797771 |
| 57 | 5100 | 5040.31067624406 | 59.6893237559352 |
| 58 | 6400 | 6766.25025213102 | -366.250252131017 |
| 59 | 5900 | 6252.92572917807 | -352.925729178066 |
| 60 | 8500 | 7978.60888934583 | 521.391110654168 |
| 61 | 6700 | 6354.56732743833 | 345.43267256167 |
| 62 | 3900 | 4000.80735739248 | -100.807357392485 |
| 63 | 4100 | 3972.79450960493 | 127.205490395069 |
| 64 | 3400 | 3917.20316145674 | -517.203161456743 |
| 65 | 4700 | 4650.16701228032 | 49.832987719682 |
| 66 | 5400 | 4611.30225617761 | 788.697743822392 |
| 67 | 6800 | 6223.73442870586 | 576.265571294136 |
| 68 | 6700 | 5760.35049302479 | 939.649506975211 |
| 69 | 5400 | 5175.22266024475 | 224.777339755248 |
| 70 | 6300 | 6531.04217827994 | -231.042178279936 |
| 71 | 5600 | 6053.20464127805 | -453.204641278046 |
| 72 | 8000 | 8604.37504314332 | -604.37504314332 |
| 73 | 6100 | 6818.4282301061 | -718.428230106098 |
| 74 | 4900 | 4044.51169654605 | 855.488303453952 |
| 75 | 4400 | 4245.00110582851 | 154.998894171489 |
| 76 | 3300 | 3605.93245466192 | -305.932454661922 |
| 77 | 4900 | 4875.00674624832 | 24.9932537516788 |
| 78 | 5900 | 5528.11699585024 | 371.883004149764 |
| 79 | 6900 | 6948.73917201942 | -48.7391720194246 |
| 80 | 6500 | 6816.24640648133 | -316.246406481328 |
| 81 | 4800 | 5551.29176568286 | -751.291765682865 |
| 82 | 6900 | 6459.46483202976 | 440.535167970243 |
| 83 | 5400 | 5770.69464089138 | -370.694640891383 |
| 84 | 8300 | 8171.6359624084 | 128.3640375916 |
| 85 | 6900 | 6282.45880898686 | 617.541191013141 |
| 86 | 5000 | 4978.15781231195 | 21.8421876880511 |
| 87 | 4600 | 4525.36206632086 | 74.6379336791388 |
| 88 | 3100 | 3459.91112805968 | -359.911128059679 |
| 89 | 4900 | 5031.7729151798 | -131.772915179796 |
| 90 | 4700 | 5999.97228840143 | -1299.97228840143 |
| 91 | 7100 | 6999.16905375072 | 100.830946249278 |
| 92 | 7100 | 6604.54766683006 | 495.452333169943 |
| 93 | 5400 | 4936.78473241479 | 463.215267585211 |
| 94 | 7000 | 6955.73397462049 | 44.266025379512 |
| 95 | 5200 | 5514.02086261856 | -314.02086261856 |
| 96 | 8100 | 8373.72146662011 | -273.721466620114 |
| 97 | 6900 | 6926.22870739734 | -26.2287073973403 |
| 98 | 5100 | 5056.06954136256 | 43.9304586374446 |
| 99 | 3900 | 4641.15286609441 | -741.152866094406 |
| 100 | 2700 | 3149.34455057975 | -449.344550579745 |
| 101 | 5300 | 4911.18722813348 | 388.812771866518 |
| 102 | 5100 | 4793.5908806127 | 306.409119387301 |
| 103 | 6700 | 7098.38164133232 | -398.381641332322 |
| 104 | 7700 | 7058.37832660954 | 641.621673390458 |
| 105 | 5700 | 5359.36014629908 | 340.639853700925 |
| 106 | 6400 | 6987.20708993047 | -587.207089930472 |
| 107 | 4800 | 5199.71009786023 | -399.710097860232 |
| 108 | 8300 | 8085.0487351223 | 214.9512648777 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 109 | 6863.89676782999 | 5947.27011022741 | 7780.52342543257 |
| 110 | 5052.68628805136 | 4135.90240658924 | 5969.47016951348 |
| 111 | 3907.8483451559 | 2990.71080855564 | 4824.98588175616 |
| 112 | 2692.24072576545 | 1774.4748054102 | 3610.0066461207 |
| 113 | 5235.01675774082 | 4316.26984818288 | 6153.76366729877 |
| 114 | 5039.00858211916 | 4118.8508854432 | 5959.16627879512 |
| 115 | 6689.99617729782 | 5767.92171105594 | 7612.07064353971 |
| 116 | 7613.63717095485 | 6689.06515353676 | 8538.20918837294 |
| 117 | 5627.43045091071 | 4699.70711015418 | 6555.15379166724 |
| 118 | 6390.27983385134 | 5458.68067433503 | 7321.87899336765 |
| 119 | 4779.22431926918 | 3842.95687114647 | 5715.49176739189 |
| 120 | 8236.45559965845 | 7294.66265737594 | 9178.24854194096 |
