| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 0.018194061774641 |
| beta | 0.206794860190384 |
| gamma | 1 |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 13 | 1260 | 1259.38169341445 | 0.61830658554868 |
| 14 | 1360 | 1355.36095738305 | 4.63904261694915 |
| 15 | 1320 | 1309.36342741051 | 10.6365725894934 |
| 16 | 1300 | 1290.7439535171 | 9.25604648289664 |
| 17 | 1440 | 1435.04192914898 | 4.95807085102024 |
| 18 | 1360 | 1358.18814610577 | 1.81185389422853 |
| 19 | 1330 | 1294.00792437545 | 35.9920756245526 |
| 20 | 1420 | 1346.07132760559 | 73.9286723944138 |
| 21 | 1510 | 1422.57113451698 | 87.4288654830164 |
| 22 | 1280 | 1395.96755488944 | -115.967554889442 |
| 23 | 1310 | 1311.81156352198 | -1.81156352198013 |
| 24 | 1460 | 1528.31873140404 | -68.318731404036 |
| 25 | 1280 | 1284.47603135997 | -4.47603135997338 |
| 26 | 1370 | 1386.38472563129 | -16.3847256312861 |
| 27 | 1390 | 1345.17988600569 | 44.8201139943149 |
| 28 | 1390 | 1325.61134377615 | 64.3886562238529 |
| 29 | 1460 | 1470.00346473703 | -10.0034647370287 |
| 30 | 1410 | 1388.48159395573 | 21.5184060442739 |
| 31 | 1230 | 1357.96258901141 | -127.962589011409 |
| 32 | 1260 | 1445.70476325601 | -185.704763256014 |
| 33 | 1590 | 1530.74695018007 | 59.2530498199299 |
| 34 | 1250 | 1299.27277030251 | -49.2727703025066 |
| 35 | 1400 | 1327.84704212757 | 72.1529578724278 |
| 36 | 1450 | 1481.76263600476 | -31.7626360047632 |
| 37 | 1220 | 1298.07157499738 | -78.0715749973756 |
| 38 | 1290 | 1387.20367227088 | -97.203672270876 |
| 39 | 1400 | 1403.57627099938 | -3.5762709993769 |
| 40 | 1400 | 1400.85657007494 | -0.856570074935007 |
| 41 | 1460 | 1469.81754003931 | -9.81754003931314 |
| 42 | 1450 | 1417.22403807272 | 32.7759619272806 |
| 43 | 1270 | 1237.51422916118 | 32.485770838822 |
| 44 | 1260 | 1270.37970065924 | -10.3797006592417 |
| 45 | 1550 | 1601.32778977433 | -51.3277897743305 |
| 46 | 1230 | 1258.38946525589 | -28.3894652558872 |
| 47 | 1380 | 1406.78073094817 | -26.7807309481736 |
| 48 | 1490 | 1456.01923935694 | 33.9807606430606 |
| 49 | 1180 | 1226.23554821402 | -46.2355482140231 |
| 50 | 1190 | 1296.73596465017 | -106.735964650167 |
| 51 | 1400 | 1404.52932065687 | -4.52932065686514 |
| 52 | 1380 | 1403.72114201785 | -23.7211420178503 |
| 53 | 1510 | 1462.74652666381 | 47.2534733361906 |
| 54 | 1400 | 1452.32782255066 | -52.3278225506592 |
| 55 | 1290 | 1269.75438471602 | 20.2456152839795 |
| 56 | 1200 | 1259.42430656984 | -59.4243065698365 |
| 57 | 1600 | 1547.5507676978 | 52.4492323021952 |
| 58 | 1220 | 1228.57998875956 | -8.57998875956173 |
| 59 | 1380 | 1377.96203260185 | 2.03796739815061 |
| 60 | 1450 | 1486.5169576505 | -36.5169576504961 |
| 61 | 1260 | 1176.76422868582 | 83.2357713141782 |
| 62 | 1130 | 1189.76420762641 | -59.7642076264117 |
| 63 | 1390 | 1398.36265858738 | -8.36265858738102 |
| 64 | 1380 | 1378.48518283179 | 1.51481716821127 |
| 65 | 1570 | 1507.39759355801 | 62.6024064419867 |
| 66 | 1320 | 1399.52659484626 | -79.5265948462622 |
| 67 | 1210 | 1287.7246858408 | -77.7246858408023 |
| 68 | 1190 | 1197.1286775289 | -7.12867752889656 |
| 69 | 1580 | 1594.6399167372 | -14.6399167371997 |
| 70 | 1150 | 1215.38099461656 | -65.3809946165645 |
| 71 | 1330 | 1372.6036821872 | -42.6036821871955 |
| 72 | 1420 | 1441.05239440475 | -21.0523944047509 |
| 73 | 1260 | 1249.4564508601 | 10.5435491399037 |
| 74 | 1040 | 1120.73676846629 | -80.7367684662852 |
| 75 | 1450 | 1375.59907230411 | 74.4009276958923 |
| 76 | 1360 | 1365.9883172608 | -5.98831726079993 |
| 77 | 1500 | 1551.55761869257 | -51.5576186925737 |
| 78 | 1240 | 1303.67396854482 | -63.6739685448169 |
| 79 | 1260 | 1194.05371374541 | 65.9462862545934 |
| 80 | 1220 | 1174.92470903865 | 45.0752909613493 |
| 81 | 1680 | 1560.66428562383 | 119.335714376174 |
| 82 | 1210 | 1138.50046636234 | 71.4995336376639 |
| 83 | 1350 | 1319.39009739027 | 30.6099026097259 |
| 84 | 1480 | 1410.40110753907 | 69.5988924609292 |
| 85 | 1270 | 1253.39163923711 | 16.6083607628864 |
| 86 | 1040 | 1036.98113387643 | 3.01886612356975 |
| 87 | 1450 | 1446.01175127133 | 3.98824872866726 |
| 88 | 1310 | 1357.64365477891 | -47.6436547789092 |
| 89 | 1510 | 1498.51191413762 | 11.4880858623833 |
| 90 | 1160 | 1241.19945428098 | -81.1994542809773 |
| 91 | 1290 | 1259.54887326752 | 30.4511267324801 |
| 92 | 1230 | 1220.16797991325 | 9.8320200867463 |
| 93 | 1680 | 1679.21735373014 | 0.782646269861061 |
| 94 | 1190 | 1208.4936357125 | -18.493635712495 |
| 95 | 1310 | 1347.45549968138 | -37.4554996813788 |
| 96 | 1480 | 1474.94338442619 | 5.0566155738079 |
| 97 | 1320 | 1265.04821973865 | 54.9517802613457 |
| 98 | 1050 | 1036.50994985583 | 13.4900501441664 |
| 99 | 1380 | 1445.18140770113 | -65.181407701134 |
| 100 | 1320 | 1304.97249732316 | 15.0275026768397 |
| 101 | 1480 | 1504.07139036359 | -24.0713903635929 |
| 102 | 1150 | 1156.19880104342 | -6.19880104342178 |
| 103 | 1250 | 1285.05412040708 | -35.0541204070771 |
| 104 | 1260 | 1224.23230774747 | 35.7676922525268 |
| 105 | 1680 | 1672.76905999695 | 7.23094000305309 |
| 106 | 1150 | 1185.15705683253 | -35.157056832526 |
| 107 | 1310 | 1304.3947700916 | 5.60522990839786 |
| 108 | 1470 | 1473.60947529082 | -3.60947529082 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 109 | 1313.10240226378 | 1211.08416217268 | 1415.12064235488 |
| 110 | 1044.01435716921 | 941.980559661635 | 1146.04815467678 |
| 111 | 1372.86163195548 | 1270.76391702326 | 1474.9593468877 |
| 112 | 1312.73893653277 | 1210.60039739043 | 1414.8774756751 |
| 113 | 1472.04632299254 | 1369.79906358961 | 1574.29358239548 |
| 114 | 1143.81283813373 | 1041.60226145051 | 1246.02341481696 |
| 115 | 1243.78833151265 | 1141.4549544031 | 1346.1217086222 |
| 116 | 1253.09679823046 | 1150.65619695549 | 1355.53739950544 |
| 117 | 1670.51267162665 | 1567.53230011612 | 1773.49304313717 |
| 118 | 1144.00061162253 | 1041.42262138543 | 1246.57860185963 |
| 119 | 1303.07010698781 | 1200.15217495572 | 1405.9880390199 |
| 120 | 1462.27199149706 | 1277.87202021479 | 1646.67196277933 |
