| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 0.405343002238673 |
| beta | 0.0645195510986042 |
| gamma | 1 |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 13 | 18843 | 18842.1805555555 | 0.819444444456167 |
| 14 | 18843 | 18800.8258088541 | 42.1741911458957 |
| 15 | 18701 | 18632.3368819188 | 68.6631180812401 |
| 16 | 18330 | 18259.547438349 | 70.4525616509709 |
| 17 | 20246 | 20194.7841805802 | 51.2158194197509 |
| 18 | 20538 | 20490.3545348325 | 47.645465167494 |
| 19 | 20097 | 19387.8487213139 | 709.151278686135 |
| 20 | 19064 | 19014.5674401537 | 49.4325598462601 |
| 21 | 19506 | 19180.1249136204 | 325.87508637955 |
| 22 | 18843 | 19407.4255614215 | -564.425561421544 |
| 23 | 19142 | 19328.9212381859 | -186.921238185907 |
| 24 | 19285 | 19427.7138505995 | -142.713850599517 |
| 25 | 19434 | 19577.1389090191 | -143.138909019126 |
| 26 | 19064 | 19510.5861601928 | -446.586160192761 |
| 27 | 19142 | 19155.5137615691 | -13.5137615690983 |
| 28 | 18622 | 18744.109755927 | -122.109755927002 |
| 29 | 20246 | 20578.4486073916 | -332.448607391598 |
| 30 | 20759 | 20694.9414928804 | 64.0585071195601 |
| 31 | 20318 | 19971.4482530007 | 346.551746999328 |
| 32 | 19506 | 19028.3911353585 | 477.608864641476 |
| 33 | 20389 | 19512.6009611919 | 876.399038808107 |
| 34 | 19434 | 19428.7323353513 | 5.26766464872708 |
| 35 | 20318 | 19815.636896977 | 502.363103023035 |
| 36 | 20246 | 20248.1430029821 | -2.14300298210583 |
| 37 | 20467 | 20485.9996697037 | -18.9996697036877 |
| 38 | 19655 | 20324.270381823 | -669.270381822989 |
| 39 | 20538 | 20165.5917850627 | 372.408214937324 |
| 40 | 20467 | 19885.2617876904 | 581.738212309596 |
| 41 | 21792 | 21937.4490396096 | -145.449039609604 |
| 42 | 21493 | 22428.0451587156 | -935.045158715624 |
| 43 | 20318 | 21503.9482512596 | -1185.94825125958 |
| 44 | 19726 | 20013.9476648707 | -287.947664870684 |
| 45 | 20538 | 20401.2772714185 | 136.722728581546 |
| 46 | 19434 | 19456.506636145 | -22.5066361450117 |
| 47 | 20246 | 20083.9729659891 | 162.027034010862 |
| 48 | 20389 | 20025.8360917976 | 363.163908202358 |
| 49 | 20688 | 20358.6150806772 | 329.384919322787 |
| 50 | 20026 | 19917.3958203871 | 108.604179612947 |
| 51 | 20389 | 20679.790904678 | -290.790904678022 |
| 52 | 20610 | 20224.0991896586 | 385.900810341376 |
| 53 | 21422 | 21728.3383427159 | -306.33834271587 |
| 54 | 20759 | 21643.8327953702 | -884.832795370246 |
| 55 | 19876 | 20551.85356388 | -675.853563879984 |
| 56 | 18921 | 19776.924623863 | -855.924623863 |
| 57 | 19805 | 20146.0139225397 | -341.013922539678 |
| 58 | 17375 | 18859.867148558 | -1484.86714855803 |
| 59 | 18551 | 18913.0235876548 | -362.023587654847 |
| 60 | 19213 | 18657.0821230035 | 555.917876996518 |
| 61 | 19876 | 18947.9548918045 | 928.045108195496 |
| 62 | 18921 | 18533.8152472366 | 387.184752763358 |
| 63 | 18921 | 19094.619236915 | -173.619236915034 |
| 64 | 18921 | 19014.8773401231 | -93.8773401230719 |
| 65 | 19434 | 19826.5051383773 | -392.50513837731 |
| 66 | 18701 | 19274.3214452461 | -573.32144524606 |
| 67 | 17739 | 18352.2836740437 | -613.283674043687 |
| 68 | 16934 | 17416.6743991956 | -482.674399195577 |
| 69 | 17518 | 18174.0526749956 | -656.052674995597 |
| 70 | 15238 | 16002.5671144473 | -764.567114447258 |
| 71 | 16635 | 16956.7968868138 | -321.796886813805 |
| 72 | 17447 | 17205.4713541366 | 241.528645863378 |
| 73 | 17596 | 17524.4246353742 | 71.5753646258163 |
| 74 | 16784 | 16353.323637071 | 430.676362929033 |
| 75 | 16855 | 16511.2371048167 | 343.762895183278 |
| 76 | 16635 | 16615.1288480878 | 19.8711519121971 |
| 77 | 17375 | 17224.7548409973 | 150.245159002719 |
| 78 | 16855 | 16728.7139535349 | 126.286046465131 |
| 79 | 15830 | 16028.4563361522 | -198.456336152176 |
| 80 | 15089 | 15311.4739029503 | -222.473902950263 |
| 81 | 16342 | 16050.8386940613 | 291.16130593872 |
| 82 | 13621 | 14203.1595510917 | -582.1595510917 |
| 83 | 15388 | 15503.7825193006 | -115.782519300616 |
| 84 | 16193 | 16185.4958918453 | 7.50410815474061 |
| 85 | 16193 | 16316.9516712724 | -123.951671272445 |
| 86 | 15238 | 15283.4501633476 | -45.450163347592 |
| 87 | 14355 | 15187.5465361841 | -832.546536184102 |
| 88 | 14284 | 14582.1226643135 | -298.122664313456 |
| 89 | 15089 | 15092.1612289709 | -3.16122897093919 |
| 90 | 14355 | 14467.4600379731 | -112.460037973091 |
| 91 | 12959 | 13418.8435733541 | -459.843573354143 |
| 92 | 11997 | 12516.3170337979 | -519.317033797888 |
| 93 | 13030 | 13367.7217012154 | -337.721701215432 |
| 94 | 10601 | 10656.2823706669 | -55.282370666866 |
| 95 | 12809 | 12372.0643611103 | 436.935638889699 |
| 96 | 13984 | 13289.8450940587 | 694.154905941301 |
| 97 | 14355 | 13578.1302055649 | 776.869794435084 |
| 98 | 13543 | 12936.6819585132 | 606.318041486829 |
| 99 | 12517 | 12634.1911583183 | -117.191158318312 |
| 100 | 13251 | 12652.5143564819 | 598.485643518077 |
| 101 | 13543 | 13740.8201766849 | -197.820176684876 |
| 102 | 13322 | 13006.5616848288 | 315.438315171206 |
| 103 | 11113 | 11970.3490485989 | -857.349048598891 |
| 104 | 10088 | 10906.4666311222 | -818.466631122232 |
| 105 | 10821 | 11771.913007812 | -950.913007811991 |
| 106 | 8613 | 8991.15185093047 | -378.15185093047 |
| 107 | 10893 | 10871.594435439 | 21.4055645610242 |
| 108 | 11705 | 11765.8656219282 | -60.8656219282457 |
| 109 | 12367 | 11769.5151464484 | 597.484853551568 |
| 110 | 11263 | 10921.4630154272 | 341.536984572795 |
| 111 | 10230 | 10042.008898529 | 187.991101470998 |
| 112 | 10821 | 10578.2027427683 | 242.79725723167 |
| 113 | 11113 | 11008.0867127967 | 104.913287203348 |
| 114 | 10529 | 10668.9518940503 | -139.951894050324 |
| 115 | 8321 | 8706.0342240553 | -385.034224055298 |
| 116 | 7359 | 7824.36566716371 | -465.365667163711 |
| 117 | 8242 | 8731.05602401281 | -489.056024012807 |
| 118 | 5813 | 6467.05767078637 | -654.057670786373 |
| 119 | 8463 | 8455.00361197263 | 7.9963880273699 |
| 120 | 10088 | 9276.3058985918 | 811.694101408204 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 121 | 10029.3433315122 | 9116.37184526206 | 10942.3148177623 |
| 122 | 8775.48716645914 | 7781.14913149544 | 9769.82520142283 |
| 123 | 7645.93768807488 | 6567.382450458 | 8724.49292569175 |
| 124 | 8113.2564715661 | 6947.76218559645 | 9278.75075753574 |
| 125 | 8331.11579037275 | 7076.07200812334 | 9586.15957262216 |
| 126 | 7769.48574705583 | 6422.37941410658 | 9116.59208000508 |
| 127 | 5686.85820988196 | 4245.26227522092 | 7128.454144543 |
| 128 | 4892.86208726806 | 3354.42613718211 | 6431.29803735401 |
| 129 | 5965.63918322534 | 4328.08165727244 | 7603.19670917823 |
| 130 | 3806.08860346955 | 2067.19025935288 | 5544.98694758623 |
| 131 | 6474.28431885664 | 4631.88269296362 | 8316.68594474966 |
| 132 | 7791.49766428351 | 5843.48233373663 | 9739.51299483039 |
