| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 0.972814985680872 |
| beta | 0.0392069048110908 |
| gamma | FALSE |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 3 | 2080 | 2080 | 0 |
| 4 | 2040 | 2060 | -20 |
| 5 | 2440 | 2019.78087899553 | 420.219121004465 |
| 6 | 2420 | 2423.84112050365 | -3.84112050365275 |
| 7 | 2120 | 2415.22269981618 | -295.222699816179 |
| 8 | 1920 | 2111.88380417405 | -191.883804174052 |
| 9 | 1940 | 1901.75588225666 | 38.2441177433441 |
| 10 | 1940 | 1916.95852276732 | 23.0414772326842 |
| 11 | 1960 | 1918.25063323757 | 41.7493667624294 |
| 12 | 2000 | 1939.33442428511 | 60.6655757148862 |
| 13 | 2120 | 1981.13403651272 | 138.865963487279 |
| 14 | 2080 | 2104.30465352748 | -24.3046535274766 |
| 15 | 2140 | 2067.81344372861 | 72.1865562713883 |
| 16 | 2240 | 2127.9436009104 | 112.0563990896 |
| 17 | 2800 | 2231.13368901255 | 568.866310987451 |
| 18 | 2800 | 2800.41247169985 | -0.412471699851721 |
| 19 | 2680 | 2815.87259144906 | -135.872591449056 |
| 20 | 2560 | 2694.37275146411 | -134.372751464109 |
| 21 | 2660 | 2569.20685850631 | 90.7931414936902 |
| 22 | 2780 | 2666.54866755179 | 113.45133244821 |
| 23 | 2800 | 2790.25985889957 | 9.74014110042663 |
| 24 | 2860 | 2813.45074847178 | 46.5492515282194 |
| 25 | 3040 | 2874.22553028466 | 165.774469715336 |
| 26 | 2920 | 3057.30720576994 | -137.30720576994 |
| 27 | 2920 | 2940.30944246047 | -20.3094424604656 |
| 28 | 3100 | 2936.35423283389 | 163.645767166113 |
| 29 | 3600 | 3117.59503159368 | 482.404968406318 |
| 30 | 3640 | 3627.32899717917 | 12.6710028208304 |
| 31 | 3540 | 3680.5820072962 | -140.582007296198 |
| 32 | 3300 | 3579.3862451569 | -279.386245156896 |
| 33 | 3480 | 3332.50355154191 | 147.496448458091 |
| 34 | 3480 | 3506.52441096381 | -26.5244109638106 |
| 35 | 3500 | 3510.2435012485 | -10.2435012485025 |
| 36 | 3600 | 3529.4102064425 | 70.5897935574958 |
| 37 | 3680 | 3629.90512203785 | 50.0948779621485 |
| 38 | 3720 | 3712.37294858538 | 7.62705141462175 |
| 39 | 3720 | 3753.81834091845 | -33.818340918448 |
| 40 | 3840 | 3753.6551669788 | 86.3448330212027 |
| 41 | 4300 | 3873.68181322378 | 426.318186776221 |
| 42 | 4420 | 4340.69986221126 | 79.3001377887449 |
| 43 | 4440 | 4473.1581445156 | -33.1581445155971 |
| 44 | 4140 | 4494.95063760027 | -354.95063760027 |
| 45 | 4300 | 4190.16037595449 | 109.83962404551 |
| 46 | 4240 | 4341.71444622629 | -101.71444622629 |
| 47 | 4120 | 4283.58604939749 | -163.586049397487 |
| 48 | 4380 | 4159.02868374734 | 220.97131625266 |
| 49 | 4440 | 4417.00256749082 | 22.9974325091762 |
| 50 | 4340 | 4483.26163691285 | -143.261636912845 |
| 51 | 4360 | 4382.31724075583 | -22.3172407558259 |
| 52 | 4500 | 4398.1781622944 | 101.821837705596 |
| 53 | 5020 | 4538.68703295262 | 481.312967047379 |
| 54 | 5280 | 5066.72835010873 | 213.271649891273 |
| 55 | 5280 | 5342.1494649173 | -62.1494649172992 |
| 56 | 5160 | 5347.26634511447 | -187.266345114474 |
| 57 | 5340 | 5223.52511153857 | 116.47488846143 |
| 58 | 5160 | 5399.71037799288 | -239.710377992876 |
| 59 | 5060 | 5220.25047056319 | -160.25047056319 |
| 60 | 5440 | 5111.97822830122 | 328.021771698782 |
| 61 | 5500 | 5491.21563996937 | 8.78436003063325 |
| 62 | 5360 | 5560.22915841966 | -200.229158419659 |
| 63 | 5720 | 5418.27424065707 | 301.725759342932 |
| 64 | 5860 | 5776.13673069134 | 83.8632693086638 |
| 65 | 6280 | 5925.25795996996 | 354.742040030043 |
| 66 | 6560 | 6351.42435575383 | 208.575644246166 |
| 67 | 6520 | 6643.35318842536 | -123.353188425359 |
| 68 | 6500 | 6607.67185657322 | -107.671856573224 |
| 69 | 6660 | 6583.13884011132 | 76.8611598886782 |
| 70 | 6640 | 6741.05387387657 | -101.05387387657 |
| 71 | 6400 | 6722.03619429128 | -322.036194291281 |
| 72 | 6760 | 6475.76079856458 | 284.23920143542 |
| 73 | 6880 | 6830.12037897784 | 49.8796210221599 |
| 74 | 6760 | 6958.39390937196 | -198.393909371956 |
| 75 | 7260 | 6837.57627394861 | 422.423726051392 |
| 76 | 7500 | 7336.81102823962 | 163.188971760379 |
| 77 | 8060 | 7590.08252985156 | 469.917470148443 |
| 78 | 8280 | 8159.66726378932 | 120.332736210677 |
| 79 | 8220 | 8393.76034844554 | -173.760348445543 |
| 80 | 8100 | 8335.12786849811 | -235.12786849811 |
| 81 | 8200 | 8207.82811820137 | -7.82811820136521 |
| 82 | 8320 | 8301.35039847325 | 18.6496015267494 |
| 83 | 7920 | 8421.34191693883 | -501.341916938825 |
| 84 | 8240 | 8016.35617940237 | 223.643820597633 |
| 85 | 8440 | 8325.1774451422 | 114.822554857803 |
| 86 | 8360 | 8532.51520728531 | -172.515207285312 |
| 87 | 8880 | 8453.74657480799 | 426.253425192013 |
| 88 | 9060 | 8973.72680036191 | 86.2731996380899 |
| 89 | 9820 | 9166.25971933749 | 653.740280662512 |
| 90 | 9960 | 9935.76746885292 | 24.2325311470831 |
| 91 | 9780 | 10093.804900572 | -313.804900572004 |
| 92 | 9880 | 9911.02560002725 | -31.0256000272511 |
| 93 | 9940 | 10002.1548912797 | -62.1548912796843 |
| 94 | 10000 | 10060.6304877882 | -60.6304877882012 |
| 95 | 9620 | 10118.2765355095 | -498.276535509491 |
| 96 | 9980 | 9731.16915208268 | 248.830847917323 |
| 97 | 10180 | 10080.3497005968 | 99.6502994031543 |
| 98 | 9980 | 10288.2059444455 | -308.205944445541 |
| 99 | 10560 | 10087.5382194553 | 472.461780544731 |
| 100 | 10740 | 10664.3359514385 | 75.6640485615026 |
| 101 | 11520 | 10858.008810824 | 661.991189176018 |
| 102 | 11640 | 11647.3185477835 | -7.31854778354136 |
| 103 | 11680 | 11785.2346053633 | -105.234605363348 |
| 104 | 11880 | 11823.8826949155 | 56.1173050845264 |
| 105 | 11880 | 12021.6367146747 | -141.636714674703 |
| 106 | 11960 | 12021.6104854575 | -61.6104854575424 |
| 107 | 11600 | 12097.085081768 | -497.085081768044 |
| 108 | 11780 | 11729.9641107176 | 50.0358892824152 |
| 109 | 11900 | 11896.9990413678 | 3.00095863215938 |
| 110 | 11680 | 12018.3921463879 | -338.392146387945 |
| 111 | 12320 | 11794.7662861403 | 525.233713859654 |
| 112 | 12440 | 12431.3215777433 | 8.67842225669301 |
| 113 | 13240 | 12565.6951450056 | 674.304854994425 |
| 114 | 13380 | 13373.318785896 | 6.68121410399908 |
| 115 | 13580 | 13531.7229727518 | 48.277027248243 |
| 116 | 13760 | 13732.433527188 | 27.5664728119955 |
| 117 | 13780 | 13914.0479585256 | -134.04795852564 |
| 118 | 13800 | 13933.3287173178 | -133.328717317829 |
| 119 | 13440 | 13948.2238655227 | -508.223865522721 |
| 120 | 13800 | 13579.031196238 | 220.968803762042 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 121 | 13927.6360684882 | 13457.4590016201 | 14397.8131353562 |
| 122 | 14061.2791770707 | 13392.6959624087 | 14729.8623917328 |
| 123 | 14194.9222856533 | 13364.0731249265 | 15025.77144638 |
| 124 | 14328.5653942358 | 13353.050093532 | 15304.0806949396 |
| 125 | 14462.2085028184 | 13352.4310360037 | 15571.9859696331 |
| 126 | 14595.8516114009 | 13358.5637352183 | 15833.1394875835 |
| 127 | 14729.4947199834 | 13369.3112474898 | 16089.6781924771 |
| 128 | 14863.137828566 | 13383.3058835195 | 16342.9697736125 |
| 129 | 14996.7809371485 | 13399.6162626097 | 16593.9456116873 |
| 130 | 15130.4240457311 | 13417.5786050301 | 16843.269486432 |
| 131 | 15264.0671543136 | 13436.7031257668 | 17091.4311828605 |
| 132 | 15397.7102628962 | 13456.6184171231 | 17338.8021086692 |
