| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 0.481814648069058 |
| beta | 0.104130420221486 |
| gamma | 1 |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 13 | 181580 | 181944.496527778 | -364.496527777723 |
| 14 | 179616 | 179955.489022677 | -339.489022677008 |
| 15 | 181580 | 181781.53947204 | -201.539472039934 |
| 16 | 179936 | 179987.277818857 | -51.2778188566735 |
| 17 | 185158 | 185236.966742964 | -78.9667429638503 |
| 18 | 187469 | 187667.769519691 | -198.769519690977 |
| 19 | 177656 | 179966.460319809 | -2310.46031980938 |
| 20 | 175025 | 175354.079824247 | -329.079824246932 |
| 21 | 177305 | 175226.263692781 | 2078.7363072187 |
| 22 | 176989 | 175992.612090359 | 996.387909641257 |
| 23 | 175025 | 176698.751179894 | -1673.75117989368 |
| 24 | 175345 | 176331.236766329 | -986.236766328715 |
| 25 | 179269 | 177128.410734277 | 2140.58926572348 |
| 26 | 178638 | 176311.492277361 | 2326.50772263925 |
| 27 | 179269 | 179579.443162534 | -310.443162534299 |
| 28 | 179269 | 177891.010351211 | 1377.98964878908 |
| 29 | 183545 | 183967.13871093 | -422.138710929779 |
| 30 | 184176 | 186305.444117649 | -2129.44411764873 |
| 31 | 172398 | 176617.723370519 | -4219.72337051903 |
| 32 | 172398 | 172054.426605553 | 343.573394446983 |
| 33 | 176989 | 173474.42004595 | 3514.57995405031 |
| 34 | 174709 | 174419.780726376 | 289.219273624389 |
| 35 | 170785 | 173414.147756481 | -2629.14775648067 |
| 36 | 172398 | 172907.214549466 | -509.214549465833 |
| 37 | 176327 | 175543.078579932 | 783.921420067549 |
| 38 | 174363 | 174089.350081954 | 273.649918045994 |
| 39 | 174047 | 174819.291780372 | -772.291780371772 |
| 40 | 169803 | 173577.60012023 | -3774.60012023032 |
| 41 | 176007 | 175774.167060159 | 232.832939841464 |
| 42 | 177305 | 177112.039653906 | 192.960346093983 |
| 43 | 164545 | 167145.34686953 | -2600.34686953016 |
| 44 | 164229 | 165493.381175415 | -1264.38117541478 |
| 45 | 170785 | 167467.592320473 | 3317.40767952689 |
| 46 | 167176 | 166322.510030386 | 853.489969613933 |
| 47 | 160967 | 163780.698421653 | -2813.69842165272 |
| 48 | 163598 | 163978.307661613 | -380.307661612751 |
| 49 | 166509 | 167047.775822057 | -538.775822056574 |
| 50 | 167176 | 164327.386199323 | 2848.61380067709 |
| 51 | 165212 | 165520.230506362 | -308.23050636219 |
| 52 | 161287 | 162733.899799635 | -1446.8997996354 |
| 53 | 169456 | 168032.885959026 | 1423.11404097354 |
| 54 | 169456 | 169887.6162885 | -431.616288499703 |
| 55 | 155078 | 158105.230724855 | -3027.23072485547 |
| 56 | 154101 | 156851.134834576 | -2750.1348345759 |
| 57 | 158025 | 160320.432236993 | -2295.43223699331 |
| 58 | 150838 | 154749.358711124 | -3911.35871112419 |
| 59 | 143616 | 147327.553324036 | -3711.55332403601 |
| 60 | 145932 | 147624.527003849 | -1692.52700384933 |
| 61 | 150838 | 149184.813326732 | 1653.18667326786 |
| 62 | 146910 | 148590.993750282 | -1680.99375028154 |
| 63 | 144283 | 145053.473550218 | -770.473550217517 |
| 64 | 138710 | 140519.091409284 | -1809.09140928395 |
| 65 | 146247 | 146177.301542823 | 69.6984571771463 |
| 66 | 146563 | 145397.473422059 | 1165.52657794143 |
| 67 | 132190 | 132098.367549803 | 91.6324501969211 |
| 68 | 131839 | 131705.813133915 | 133.186866085045 |
| 69 | 134470 | 136159.858625077 | -1689.8586250775 |
| 70 | 126301 | 129433.493713818 | -3132.49371381837 |
| 71 | 117465 | 121919.853796048 | -4454.85379604793 |
| 72 | 121043 | 122296.992419188 | -1253.99241918766 |
| 73 | 125950 | 125216.341047261 | 733.65895273925 |
| 74 | 120728 | 121819.692047122 | -1091.69204712214 |
| 75 | 120412 | 118435.426414432 | 1976.57358556821 |
| 76 | 115154 | 114221.741051047 | 932.258948952673 |
| 77 | 123670 | 121847.198949082 | 1822.80105091831 |
| 78 | 125319 | 122240.70293129 | 3078.29706870986 |
| 79 | 109266 | 109163.507889519 | 102.492110480598 |
| 80 | 105688 | 108655.049748927 | -2967.04974892717 |
| 81 | 107968 | 110372.467686511 | -2404.46768651067 |
| 82 | 99132 | 102220.175567412 | -3088.1755674124 |
| 83 | 89981 | 93710.8189445554 | -3729.81894455543 |
| 84 | 92928 | 95800.4633767834 | -2872.46337678342 |
| 85 | 98470 | 98593.3135182929 | -123.313518292896 |
| 86 | 91946 | 93418.2295336932 | -1472.22953369324 |
| 87 | 92928 | 91001.7905678475 | 1926.20943215251 |
| 88 | 89004 | 85781.408517195 | 3222.59148280502 |
| 89 | 97172 | 94645.4756587927 | 2526.52434120735 |
| 90 | 98150 | 95737.557980094 | 2412.44201990597 |
| 91 | 78524 | 80473.0531988656 | -1949.05319886561 |
| 92 | 77221 | 76958.1371322571 | 262.862867742864 |
| 93 | 80799 | 80257.9441087931 | 541.055891206852 |
| 94 | 71333 | 73052.9905491746 | -1719.99054917465 |
| 95 | 62817 | 64821.4288517184 | -2004.4288517184 |
| 96 | 65764 | 68224.2996580926 | -2460.29965809263 |
| 97 | 72950 | 72698.6234582436 | 251.376541756414 |
| 98 | 64462 | 67082.1988530301 | -2620.19885303012 |
| 99 | 63799 | 65893.1940716429 | -2094.19407164287 |
| 100 | 57244 | 59225.3003146439 | -1981.30031464393 |
| 101 | 64462 | 64778.0883895319 | -316.088389531877 |
| 102 | 66742 | 63855.5481753518 | 2886.45182464819 |
| 103 | 46448 | 45997.2528434805 | 450.747156519479 |
| 104 | 46448 | 44343.0674947148 | 2104.93250528523 |
| 105 | 49391 | 48325.2749145188 | 1065.72508548116 |
| 106 | 41542 | 39878.50574491 | 1663.49425508998 |
| 107 | 32706 | 32976.5517748831 | -270.55177488309 |
| 108 | 37297 | 36912.3826505795 | 384.617349420514 |
| 109 | 45466 | 44239.0922227999 | 1226.90777720005 |
| 110 | 36631 | 37730.1406749356 | -1099.14067493564 |
| 111 | 40244 | 37748.3419664288 | 2495.65803357121 |
| 112 | 35333 | 33782.4561151651 | 1550.54388483491 |
| 113 | 43186 | 42509.0750647089 | 676.924935291056 |
| 114 | 45813 | 44383.5618506768 | 1429.43814932324 |
| 115 | 24853 | 25147.0780618908 | -294.078061890767 |
| 116 | 23240 | 24539.7991402458 | -1299.79914024578 |
| 117 | 26502 | 26720.8337243493 | -218.83372434933 |
| 118 | 18649 | 18278.2310161287 | 370.768983871312 |
| 119 | 12444 | 9999.70119075121 | 2444.29880924879 |
| 120 | 15040 | 15967.766621181 | -927.766621180956 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 121 | 23417.4493134998 | 19728.1379226853 | 27106.7607043143 |
| 122 | 15369.3118909178 | 11190.4288175346 | 19548.194964301 |
| 123 | 18092.2933979865 | 13393.789132321 | 22790.7976636519 |
| 124 | 12621.4336848198 | 7375.65659855126 | 17867.2107710883 |
| 125 | 20257.7031700753 | 14438.9153775827 | 26076.490962568 |
| 126 | 22271.4383847385 | 15855.4577379297 | 28687.4190315472 |
| 127 | 1456.87181174057 | -5579.19591230327 | 8492.93953578442 |
| 128 | 488.63074181396 | -7189.33372576504 | 8166.59520939296 |
| 129 | 3939.7776533088 | -4400.96563637886 | 12280.5209429964 |
| 130 | -3997.17542683921 | -13020.7751915975 | 5026.42433791911 |
| 131 | -11303.7876090397 | -21029.6152630576 | -1577.95995502185 |
| 132 | -8307.32356131004 | -18754.1237445159 | 2139.47662189578 |
