| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 1 |
| beta | 0.0155382058176803 |
| gamma | FALSE |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 3 | 161287 | 161319 | -32 |
| 4 | 160652 | 160971.502777414 | -319.502777413843 |
| 5 | 167176 | 160331.538277499 | 6844.46172250094 |
| 6 | 166856 | 166961.888932455 | -105.888932454516 |
| 7 | 161949 | 166640.243608428 | -4691.24360842822 |
| 8 | 158687 | 161660.3500997 | -2973.35009969957 |
| 9 | 159007 | 158352.149573882 | 654.85042611757 |
| 10 | 159007 | 158682.324774583 | 324.675225416751 |
| 11 | 159323 | 158687.36964506 | 635.630354940338 |
| 12 | 159990 | 159013.246200339 | 976.753799661295 |
| 13 | 159990 | 159695.423201911 | 294.576798088965 |
| 14 | 157043 | 159700.000396829 | -2657.00039682887 |
| 15 | 155745 | 156711.715377805 | -966.71537780526 |
| 16 | 157043 | 155398.694355298 | 1644.3056447022 |
| 17 | 161634 | 156722.243914832 | 4911.75608516764 |
| 18 | 160967 | 161389.56379181 | -422.563791809953 |
| 19 | 154763 | 160715.997908642 | -5952.9979086417 |
| 20 | 149510 | 154419.499001905 | -4909.499001905 |
| 21 | 148527 | 149090.214195952 | -563.214195951703 |
| 22 | 146563 | 148098.462857856 | -1535.46285785557 |
| 23 | 147892 | 146110.604519945 | 1781.39548005519 |
| 24 | 149510 | 147467.284209557 | 2042.71579044341 |
| 25 | 148874 | 149117.024347936 | -243.024347935541 |
| 26 | 147545 | 148477.248185599 | -932.248185598612 |
| 27 | 144950 | 147133.762721418 | -2183.76272141762 |
| 28 | 147545 | 144504.830966795 | 3040.16903320476 |
| 29 | 149856 | 147147.069738954 | 2708.93026104628 |
| 30 | 149190 | 149500.161654896 | -310.161654895608 |
| 31 | 141656 | 148829.342299265 | -7173.34229926509 |
| 32 | 138394 | 141183.881430218 | -2789.88143021843 |
| 33 | 135132 | 137878.531678349 | -2746.53167834878 |
| 34 | 132505 | 134573.855503846 | -2068.85550384581 |
| 35 | 132190 | 131914.70920122 | 275.290798779984 |
| 36 | 134150 | 131603.986726311 | 2546.01327368882 |
| 37 | 131523 | 133603.547204572 | -2080.5472045723 |
| 38 | 130541 | 130944.219233894 | -403.219233894255 |
| 39 | 129559 | 129955.953930448 | -396.953930448348 |
| 40 | 135132 | 128967.785978577 | 6164.21402142309 |
| 41 | 135768 | 134636.566804746 | 1131.43319525398 |
| 42 | 132505 | 135290.147246603 | -2785.14724660284 |
| 43 | 123670 | 131983.871055453 | -8313.87105545256 |
| 44 | 119745 | 123019.688415851 | -3274.68841585128 |
| 45 | 113541 | 119043.805633257 | -5502.80563325701 |
| 46 | 110910 | 112754.301906753 | -1844.30190675278 |
| 47 | 112208 | 110094.644764136 | 2113.35523586429 |
| 48 | 114172 | 111425.482512756 | 2746.51748724356 |
| 49 | 114172 | 113432.158466755 | 739.841533244908 |
| 50 | 112559 | 113443.654276771 | -884.654276771122 |
| 51 | 112208 | 111816.908336541 | 391.091663458836 |
| 52 | 117465 | 111471.985199302 | 5993.01480069844 |
| 53 | 121710 | 116822.105896743 | 4887.89410325678 |
| 54 | 119745 | 121143.055001335 | -1398.05500133465 |
| 55 | 113190 | 119156.331734979 | -5966.33173497947 |
| 56 | 109932 | 112508.625644505 | -2576.62564450481 |
| 57 | 103061 | 109210.589504925 | -6149.58950492537 |
| 58 | 98817 | 102244.035917504 | -3427.0359175036 |
| 59 | 102079 | 97946.7859280728 | 4132.21407192716 |
| 60 | 105341 | 101272.993120805 | 4068.00687919484 |
| 61 | 105341 | 104598.202648962 | 742.797351038171 |
| 62 | 101097 | 104609.744387083 | -3512.74438708309 |
| 63 | 100781 | 100311.162641812 | 469.837358188306 |
| 64 | 106319 | 100002.463071384 | 6316.53692861594 |
| 65 | 109932 | 105638.610722236 | 4293.38927776413 |
| 66 | 108630 | 109318.322288489 | -688.322288489187 |
| 67 | 102079 | 108005.626995102 | -5926.62699510175 |
| 68 | 97835 | 101362.537845047 | -3527.53784504723 |
| 69 | 88652 | 97063.7262359812 | -8411.72623598124 |
| 70 | 85075 | 87750.0231024446 | -2675.02310244458 |
| 71 | 86372 | 84131.4580429117 | 2240.54195708825 |
| 72 | 91946 | 85463.2720449841 | 6482.72795501587 |
| 73 | 92261 | 91138.0020062092 | 1122.99799379081 |
| 74 | 84092 | 91470.4513801696 | -7378.45138016956 |
| 75 | 87039 | 83186.8034840087 | 3852.19651599127 |
| 76 | 94226 | 86193.6597063244 | 8032.34029367563 |
| 77 | 97488 | 93505.4678630051 | 3982.53213699487 |
| 78 | 95523 | 96829.3492670253 | -1306.34926702529 |
| 79 | 86692 | 94844.0509432445 | -8152.05094324448 |
| 80 | 80484 | 85886.3826978521 | -5402.38269785212 |
| 81 | 73297 | 79594.439363587 | -6297.43936358704 |
| 82 | 67724 | 72309.5884546313 | -4585.58845463126 |
| 83 | 70004 | 66665.336637428 | 3338.66336257198 |
| 84 | 74910 | 68997.2134759116 | 5912.7865240884 |
| 85 | 73613 | 73995.0875698789 | -382.087569878902 |
| 86 | 66426 | 72692.1506145777 | -6266.15061457774 |
| 87 | 68706 | 65407.7858766439 | 3298.21412335615 |
| 88 | 75893 | 67739.0342065233 | 8153.96579347666 |
| 89 | 79821 | 75052.7322052527 | 4768.2677947473 |
| 90 | 77541 | 79054.8225316413 | -1513.8225316413 |
| 91 | 68706 | 76751.3004455732 | -8045.30044557322 |
| 92 | 64782 | 67791.2909113848 | -3009.29091138483 |
| 93 | 58893 | 63820.5319298385 | -4927.53192983846 |
| 94 | 52684 | 57854.9669245394 | -5170.96692453943 |
| 95 | 53666 | 51565.6193761895 | 2100.38062381048 |
| 96 | 58573 | 52580.2555226178 | 5992.74447738224 |
| 97 | 59208 | 57580.3720197201 | 1627.62798027991 |
| 98 | 53319 | 58240.6624382723 | -4921.66243827229 |
| 99 | 54302 | 52275.1886343413 | 2026.81136565873 |
| 100 | 62502 | 53289.6816464945 | 9212.3183535055 |
| 101 | 64462 | 61632.8245451293 | 2829.17545487075 |
| 102 | 61173 | 63636.7848556414 | -2463.78485564137 |
| 103 | 49075 | 60309.5020594639 | -11234.5020594639 |
| 104 | 42871 | 48036.9380542048 | -5165.93805420482 |
| 105 | 34671 | 41752.6686454772 | -7081.6686454772 |
| 106 | 26502 | 33442.6322205312 | -6940.63222053116 |
| 107 | 29129 | 25165.7872485837 | 3963.21275141627 |
| 108 | 32706 | 27854.3684640145 | 4851.63153598551 |
| 109 | 32075 | 31506.7541133722 | 568.245886627821 |
| 110 | 25835 | 30884.5836349137 | -5049.58363491365 |
| 111 | 29444 | 24566.1221651008 | 4877.87783489923 |
| 112 | 38280 | 28250.9156348529 | 10029.0843651471 |
| 113 | 42204 | 37242.7496118815 | 4961.25038811853 |
| 114 | 40244 | 41243.8385415251 | -999.838541525103 |
| 115 | 32391 | 39268.3028444824 | -6877.30284448244 |
| 116 | 26186 | 31308.4418974144 | -5122.44189741435 |
| 117 | 19631 | 25023.8483409232 | -5392.84834092322 |
| 118 | 12093 | 18385.0531534584 | -6292.05315345842 |
| 119 | 13427 | 10749.2859365442 | 2677.7140634558 |
| 120 | 15707 | 12124.8928087831 | 3582.10719121693 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 121 | 14460.5523275812 | 5799.64665566332 | 23121.4579994991 |
| 122 | 13214.1046551624 | 870.208748167326 | 25558.0005621574 |
| 123 | 11967.6569827436 | -3267.75105710938 | 27203.0650225965 |
| 124 | 10721.2093103248 | -7006.88093702913 | 28449.2995576787 |
| 125 | 9474.76163790595 | -10497.9838924777 | 29447.5071682896 |
| 126 | 8228.31396548714 | -13817.7745668677 | 30274.402497842 |
| 127 | 6981.86629306834 | -17011.4613483706 | 30975.1939345072 |
| 128 | 5735.41862064953 | -20108.2661020576 | 31579.1033433567 |
| 129 | 4488.97094823072 | -23128.3252013634 | 32106.2670978249 |
| 130 | 3242.52327581191 | -26086.1830004414 | 32571.2295520653 |
| 131 | 1996.0756033931 | -28992.7313524411 | 32984.8825592273 |
| 132 | 749.62793097429 | -31856.3638736349 | 33355.6197355834 |
