| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 0.40085143146767 |
| beta | 0.0368982697380461 |
| gamma | 1 |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 13 | 35998 | 36579.1669337607 | -581.166933760702 |
| 14 | 35335 | 35689.5399635775 | -354.539963577539 |
| 15 | 35043 | 35287.387835967 | -244.387835967027 |
| 16 | 35335 | 35540.4006732982 | -205.400673298216 |
| 17 | 36368 | 36555.9202125426 | -187.920212542616 |
| 18 | 36218 | 36374.2506767935 | -156.250676793512 |
| 19 | 34822 | 34828.9231924434 | -6.9231924434207 |
| 20 | 33640 | 33989.3931115889 | -349.393111588877 |
| 21 | 33419 | 33846.9990295776 | -427.999029577622 |
| 22 | 32977 | 33585.5569038626 | -608.556903862591 |
| 23 | 33276 | 33313.7368984264 | -37.7368984263594 |
| 24 | 33640 | 33370.5477532212 | 269.452246778805 |
| 25 | 33497 | 33071.6925407073 | 425.307459292715 |
| 26 | 33198 | 32693.4246131307 | 504.575386869321 |
| 27 | 32614 | 32686.4836480023 | -72.483648002286 |
| 28 | 33198 | 33019.14227018 | 178.857729819967 |
| 29 | 33718 | 34192.2278358069 | -474.227835806931 |
| 30 | 33568 | 33903.593641738 | -335.593641738044 |
| 31 | 31873 | 32362.0204146134 | -489.020414613391 |
| 32 | 31139 | 31103.0948362088 | 35.9051637912489 |
| 33 | 30405 | 31052.7945626117 | -647.794562611736 |
| 34 | 29814 | 30576.5582222429 | -762.558222242933 |
| 35 | 29743 | 30564.2268973078 | -821.226897307752 |
| 36 | 30184 | 30458.652556883 | -274.652556882967 |
| 37 | 29593 | 29994.6508340727 | -401.650834072701 |
| 38 | 29372 | 29279.7356957407 | 92.2643042593227 |
| 39 | 29151 | 28703.0237082769 | 447.976291723066 |
| 40 | 30405 | 29343.8468085392 | 1061.15319146076 |
| 41 | 30548 | 30441.3028195309 | 106.697180469142 |
| 42 | 29814 | 30439.1843588224 | -625.184358822386 |
| 43 | 27826 | 28655.9082205169 | -829.90822051691 |
| 44 | 26943 | 27536.1090821431 | -593.109082143121 |
| 45 | 25547 | 26775.9896551228 | -1228.98965512282 |
| 46 | 24955 | 25941.3834710799 | -986.383471079946 |
| 47 | 25247 | 25744.2332080414 | -497.233208041398 |
| 48 | 25689 | 26040.8565226963 | -351.856522696336 |
| 49 | 25689 | 25413.5198284105 | 275.480171589523 |
| 50 | 25326 | 25219.6806137986 | 106.31938620139 |
| 51 | 25247 | 24815.6532816919 | 431.346718308116 |
| 52 | 26430 | 25770.8748194888 | 659.125180511175 |
| 53 | 27385 | 26083.0504527483 | 1301.9495472517 |
| 54 | 26943 | 26086.9575644459 | 856.042435554136 |
| 55 | 25468 | 24762.0944421909 | 705.905557809088 |
| 56 | 24735 | 24409.8432620724 | 325.156737927584 |
| 57 | 23189 | 23660.4438269228 | -471.443826922787 |
| 58 | 22234 | 23309.6815303349 | -1075.68153033491 |
| 59 | 22968 | 23403.3123192759 | -435.312319275869 |
| 60 | 23702 | 23846.2774255057 | -144.277425505697 |
| 61 | 23702 | 23715.5057187788 | -13.5057187788479 |
| 62 | 22747 | 23337.6880702453 | -590.688070245349 |
| 63 | 22676 | 22871.9091334838 | -195.909133483794 |
| 64 | 23922 | 23725.795007671 | 196.204992328985 |
| 65 | 24735 | 24244.3363980487 | 490.663601951259 |
| 66 | 24442 | 23650.6549409278 | 791.345059072184 |
| 67 | 22968 | 22203.727737615 | 764.272262385013 |
| 68 | 22013 | 21641.4353603078 | 371.564639692235 |
| 69 | 19947 | 20428.7304535018 | -481.730453501808 |
| 70 | 19142 | 19707.038388827 | -565.038388827044 |
| 71 | 19434 | 20391.8120859964 | -957.812085996415 |
| 72 | 20688 | 20794.7519806711 | -106.751980671092 |
| 73 | 20759 | 20752.9755395002 | 6.02446049982245 |
| 74 | 18921 | 20033.0589335078 | -1112.0589335078 |
| 75 | 19584 | 19582.9978439461 | 1.00215605385165 |
| 76 | 21201 | 20741.8418373994 | 459.158162600579 |
| 77 | 21935 | 21537.1934345677 | 397.806565432253 |
| 78 | 21493 | 21080.0501408644 | 412.949859135577 |
| 79 | 19506 | 19453.2324883679 | 52.7675116321079 |
| 80 | 18109 | 18347.9289684238 | -238.928968423781 |
| 81 | 16492 | 16347.7134138565 | 144.286586143506 |
| 82 | 15238 | 15804.7637134308 | -566.763713430839 |
| 83 | 15751 | 16231.206862528 | -480.206862528041 |
| 84 | 16855 | 17320.2619148857 | -465.261914885701 |
| 85 | 16563 | 17181.7984514444 | -618.7984514444 |
| 86 | 14946 | 15511.7333931378 | -565.733393137762 |
| 87 | 15459 | 15925.8479587671 | -466.847958767119 |
| 88 | 17076 | 17143.02855922 | -67.0285592200307 |
| 89 | 17960 | 17654.2875311548 | 305.712468845184 |
| 90 | 17447 | 17131.5279284111 | 315.472071588883 |
| 91 | 15459 | 15210.6183189085 | 248.381681091496 |
| 92 | 14576 | 13972.6356571603 | 603.364342839701 |
| 93 | 13251 | 12515.7939280099 | 735.206071990138 |
| 94 | 11854 | 11768.5668023115 | 85.4331976884805 |
| 95 | 12075 | 12502.8273168974 | -427.82731689739 |
| 96 | 13179 | 13617.1306472554 | -438.13064725545 |
| 97 | 13322 | 13393.2505044506 | -71.2505044506233 |
| 98 | 11997 | 11978.2622181769 | 18.7377818230543 |
| 99 | 12218 | 12698.3522493296 | -480.352249329551 |
| 100 | 14063 | 14161.9134101886 | -98.9134101885866 |
| 101 | 14504 | 14895.4895010298 | -391.489501029761 |
| 102 | 13764 | 14100.5617742354 | -336.561774235448 |
| 103 | 11042 | 11869.9011316117 | -827.901131611698 |
| 104 | 9646 | 10389.0720938489 | -743.072093848938 |
| 105 | 7801 | 8427.48318140025 | -626.483181400254 |
| 106 | 5963 | 6680.95111794077 | -717.951117940773 |
| 107 | 6554 | 6709.61257729945 | -155.612577299446 |
| 108 | 7359 | 7854.84460351487 | -495.844603514868 |
| 109 | 7217 | 7754.7760733583 | -537.776073358298 |
| 110 | 5813 | 6126.92706908122 | -313.927069081217 |
| 111 | 6625 | 6329.94885794486 | 295.051142055141 |
| 112 | 8613 | 8259.6489075273 | 353.351092472696 |
| 113 | 9496 | 8932.68744005986 | 563.312559940139 |
| 114 | 9055 | 8500.99368345765 | 554.006316542349 |
| 115 | 7288 | 6293.695737659 | 994.304262341007 |
| 116 | 5892 | 5581.83974998516 | 310.160250014843 |
| 117 | 4417 | 4115.58689235411 | 301.41310764589 |
| 118 | 2721 | 2703.21704161643 | 17.7829583835737 |
| 119 | 3021 | 3391.62147039326 | -370.621470393259 |
| 120 | 3534 | 4271.53578539853 | -737.535785398533 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 121 | 4070.605474095 | 3059.44059392185 | 5081.77035426814 |
| 122 | 2821.54134193563 | 1726.51074632388 | 3916.57193754739 |
| 123 | 3549.01063082089 | 2370.65387064594 | 4727.36739099583 |
| 124 | 5424.746281047 | 4163.31863063697 | 6686.17393145704 |
| 125 | 6106.09225791595 | 4761.63528583252 | 7450.54922999938 |
| 126 | 5458.83685503569 | 4031.22818754476 | 6886.44552252662 |
| 127 | 3300.89323565282 | 1789.88266457651 | 4811.90380672913 |
| 128 | 1773.48324278282 | 178.719554783218 | 3368.24693078242 |
| 129 | 165.992059723501 | -1512.95662532299 | 1844.94074476999 |
| 130 | -1553.2636901551 | -3316.89423560023 | 210.366855290032 |
| 131 | -1121.0899916038 | -2969.95197064286 | 727.771987435264 |
| 132 | -323.356404689468 | -2258.04237215234 | 1611.3295627734 |
