| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 0.791744723389592 |
| beta | 0.0130855858701509 |
| gamma | 1 |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 13 | 93559 | 93943.9094551282 | -384.909455128218 |
| 14 | 96190 | 96361.153964155 | -171.153964155004 |
| 15 | 97172 | 97228.3233576022 | -56.3233576021594 |
| 16 | 96190 | 96209.8257429033 | -19.825742903311 |
| 17 | 99799 | 99905.8528519014 | -106.852851901407 |
| 18 | 97488 | 97679.2446636165 | -191.244663616526 |
| 19 | 92261 | 94469.2133241644 | -2208.21332416438 |
| 20 | 90964 | 89345.0879542898 | 1618.91204571021 |
| 21 | 90964 | 90725.7165486504 | 238.283451349635 |
| 22 | 91599 | 90627.7917940488 | 971.208205951247 |
| 23 | 89004 | 91572.135161019 | -2568.135161019 |
| 24 | 90964 | 90243.5317401899 | 720.46825981015 |
| 25 | 89319 | 90525.2593374884 | -1206.25933748837 |
| 26 | 90964 | 92305.8549450396 | -1341.85494503964 |
| 27 | 93559 | 92227.0479375314 | 1331.95206246855 |
| 28 | 94541 | 92286.6998748684 | 2254.30012513162 |
| 29 | 96852 | 97760.0802310043 | -908.080231004336 |
| 30 | 95870 | 94868.1783273974 | 1001.82167260257 |
| 31 | 89981 | 92181.7161688398 | -2200.71616883985 |
| 32 | 87670 | 87859.6329293707 | -189.632929370709 |
| 33 | 86692 | 87501.1823094449 | -809.182309444936 |
| 34 | 87670 | 86696.0652199675 | 973.93478003249 |
| 35 | 86057 | 86875.0063608492 | -818.006360849191 |
| 36 | 86692 | 87604.5852637165 | -912.585263716537 |
| 37 | 84728 | 86162.8390689955 | -1434.83906899553 |
| 38 | 88021 | 87702.5900990598 | 318.409900940154 |
| 39 | 89635 | 89480.6952405422 | 154.30475945778 |
| 40 | 89981 | 88773.4058420103 | 1207.59415798975 |
| 41 | 96190 | 92722.0063891878 | 3467.99361081218 |
| 42 | 96190 | 93700.4495875928 | 2489.55041240717 |
| 43 | 88021 | 91548.2215135908 | -3527.22151359079 |
| 44 | 86057 | 86604.2382884311 | -547.238288431123 |
| 45 | 86057 | 85839.461059993 | 217.538940006954 |
| 46 | 87039 | 86235.0559075219 | 803.944092478137 |
| 47 | 82764 | 85920.932704281 | -3156.93270428099 |
| 48 | 80799 | 84769.4562301148 | -3970.45623011484 |
| 49 | 78524 | 80756.6875920393 | -2232.68759203931 |
| 50 | 79186 | 81980.3964183007 | -2794.39641830066 |
| 51 | 82133 | 81178.0545709383 | 954.945429061743 |
| 52 | 79821 | 81250.5930163923 | -1429.59301639233 |
| 53 | 86057 | 83481.2039615227 | 2575.79603847729 |
| 54 | 87039 | 83439.494232845 | 3599.505767155 |
| 55 | 80799 | 80814.5483341907 | -15.5483341906802 |
| 56 | 78524 | 79209.3989235128 | -685.398923512781 |
| 57 | 77221 | 78430.9591026326 | -1209.95910263264 |
| 58 | 78524 | 77740.1288296864 | 783.871170313607 |
| 59 | 74910 | 76506.6984941328 | -1596.6984941328 |
| 60 | 73613 | 76358.7323655074 | -2745.73236550736 |
| 61 | 68390 | 73627.8442650391 | -5237.84426503912 |
| 62 | 69688 | 72274.4349611789 | -2586.43496117892 |
| 63 | 70004 | 72338.8979323034 | -2334.89793230339 |
| 64 | 70355 | 69197.3755142014 | 1157.62448579859 |
| 65 | 76559 | 74224.5983635583 | 2334.40163644169 |
| 66 | 75893 | 74116.5105834999 | 1776.48941650007 |
| 67 | 68390 | 69188.0114986772 | -798.011498677224 |
| 68 | 65097 | 66708.4089029989 | -1611.40890299894 |
| 69 | 63799 | 64962.5270842153 | -1163.52708421534 |
| 70 | 65444 | 64599.1297905226 | 844.870209477376 |
| 71 | 59208 | 62794.3059041706 | -3586.30590417059 |
| 72 | 54964 | 60687.250000796 | -5723.250000796 |
| 73 | 47115 | 54904.5479278657 | -7789.54792786574 |
| 74 | 47777 | 51881.1892665561 | -4104.18926655606 |
| 75 | 47777 | 50578.8161559605 | -2801.81615596052 |
| 76 | 47115 | 47572.5664078057 | -457.566407805651 |
| 77 | 52684 | 51326.9228343325 | 1357.07716566748 |
| 78 | 53004 | 50079.6122762186 | 2924.38772378137 |
| 79 | 46448 | 45286.4518329886 | 1161.54816701137 |
| 80 | 45151 | 43971.877482723 | 1179.12251727703 |
| 81 | 42524 | 44340.5206081196 | -1816.52060811964 |
| 82 | 46133 | 43683.4758335212 | 2449.52416647877 |
| 83 | 39577 | 42048.0347321087 | -2471.03473210875 |
| 84 | 35653 | 40212.2360033316 | -4559.2360033316 |
| 85 | 28146 | 34766.1551187264 | -6620.1551187264 |
| 86 | 29764 | 33293.6045534891 | -3529.60455348914 |
| 87 | 27800 | 32580.7870049418 | -4780.78700494183 |
| 88 | 28462 | 28338.8019682522 | 123.198031747754 |
| 89 | 33373 | 32779.8037110136 | 593.196288986393 |
| 90 | 34355 | 31095.1000849331 | 3259.89991506686 |
| 91 | 31093 | 26044.9399560241 | 5048.06004397589 |
| 92 | 30742 | 27695.8977616312 | 3046.1022383688 |
| 93 | 30742 | 28822.9434139291 | 1919.05658607094 |
| 94 | 35017 | 31954.7404146726 | 3062.25958532745 |
| 95 | 27484 | 29728.8371126523 | -2244.83711265225 |
| 96 | 22573 | 27588.7338490253 | -5015.73384902529 |
| 97 | 14058 | 21298.7800300962 | -7240.7800300962 |
| 98 | 20929 | 19918.8005862413 | 1010.19941375866 |
| 99 | 19946 | 22527.1420665894 | -2581.14206658941 |
| 100 | 20293 | 21058.1429008484 | -765.142900848419 |
| 101 | 28146 | 24894.629245993 | 3251.37075400702 |
| 102 | 27164 | 25898.3604255297 | 1265.63957447034 |
| 103 | 23555 | 19649.4716532456 | 3905.52834675437 |
| 104 | 25204 | 19974.9032806205 | 5229.09671937953 |
| 105 | 25204 | 22614.2124224162 | 2589.78757758381 |
| 106 | 31093 | 26540.6866059617 | 4552.31339403829 |
| 107 | 24222 | 24430.2836747389 | -208.283674738865 |
| 108 | 20293 | 23387.6456011695 | -3094.64560116946 |
| 109 | 14058 | 18237.3176020927 | -4179.31760209266 |
| 110 | 22258 | 21113.2549409206 | 1144.74505907943 |
| 111 | 21595 | 23195.3104182481 | -1600.31041824808 |
| 112 | 21911 | 23006.3367997741 | -1095.33679977405 |
| 113 | 28782 | 27539.6989312684 | 1242.30106873163 |
| 114 | 28146 | 26640.2508407234 | 1505.74915927664 |
| 115 | 25835 | 21234.756021766 | 4600.24397823405 |
| 116 | 26186 | 22496.580434297 | 3689.41956570305 |
| 117 | 27800 | 23461.9717724236 | 4338.02822757643 |
| 118 | 31409 | 29294.1886850321 | 2114.81131496792 |
| 119 | 25835 | 24350.1093447904 | 1484.89065520957 |
| 120 | 21275 | 24152.0975081664 | -2877.09750816645 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 121 | 19055.5417877813 | 13743.674504317 | 24367.4090712456 |
| 122 | 26499.913903343 | 19690.413505418 | 33309.4143012681 |
| 123 | 27242.8091419095 | 19180.8835581206 | 35304.7347256983 |
| 124 | 28581.4741083731 | 19410.975936886 | 37751.9722798602 |
| 125 | 34635.6748023506 | 24453.0655698442 | 44818.2840348569 |
| 126 | 32961.4210706385 | 21836.5307946375 | 44086.3113466394 |
| 127 | 27146.5171652724 | 15132.4815129554 | 39160.5528175895 |
| 128 | 24667.0931143398 | 11805.7869941722 | 37528.3992345074 |
| 129 | 22898.9125546255 | 9224.20347669276 | 36573.6216325582 |
| 130 | 24841.0083577836 | 10380.8378977948 | 39301.1788177725 |
| 131 | 18076.9301361799 | 2854.71490505592 | 33299.1453673038 |
| 132 | 15765.0489005832 | -199.337906518531 | 31729.4357076849 |
