| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 0.0586850505117233 |
| beta | 0.0455307064612329 |
| gamma | 1 |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 13 | 870 | 855.683760683761 | 14.3162393162395 |
| 14 | 860 | 840.932791869658 | 19.0672081303418 |
| 15 | 930 | 917.344914276316 | 12.6550857236841 |
| 16 | 980 | 975.497888321273 | 4.50211167872737 |
| 17 | 1010 | 1007.7677675214 | 2.23223247860187 |
| 18 | 860 | 858.660403208262 | 1.33959679173836 |
| 19 | 1140 | 996.170900556282 | 143.829099443718 |
| 20 | 880 | 886.594375530448 | -6.59437553044779 |
| 21 | 800 | 929.422621292094 | -129.422621292094 |
| 22 | 900 | 951.363538318142 | -51.3635383181417 |
| 23 | 900 | 884.831447978377 | 15.1685520216233 |
| 24 | 1000 | 1015.57765999756 | -15.5776599975624 |
| 25 | 890 | 894.20399603183 | -4.20399603182966 |
| 26 | 890 | 882.815964365322 | 7.18403563467814 |
| 27 | 870 | 952.44078413781 | -82.4407841378101 |
| 28 | 1000 | 997.030331045119 | 2.96966895488106 |
| 29 | 1050 | 1026.76130803816 | 23.2386919618398 |
| 30 | 790 | 877.790286708096 | -87.790286708096 |
| 31 | 1160 | 1143.70336795999 | 16.2966320400076 |
| 32 | 830 | 884.211641365666 | -54.2116413656661 |
| 33 | 730 | 807.663082999912 | -77.6630829999118 |
| 34 | 950 | 905.295674397192 | 44.7043256028077 |
| 35 | 980 | 906.461654891173 | 73.5383451088269 |
| 36 | 910 | 1011.28006672331 | -101.280066723308 |
| 37 | 840 | 894.94279276767 | -54.9427927676703 |
| 38 | 860 | 890.52094422664 | -30.5209442266404 |
| 39 | 880 | 872.691183533053 | 7.30881646694695 |
| 40 | 1030 | 1002.30895590528 | 27.6910440947174 |
| 41 | 1060 | 1051.99942651384 | 8.0005734861561 |
| 42 | 770 | 797.009386258671 | -27.0093862586708 |
| 43 | 1140 | 1164.01884351561 | -24.0188435156138 |
| 44 | 890 | 835.233860696666 | 54.7661393033344 |
| 45 | 740 | 742.739813168593 | -2.73981316859283 |
| 46 | 860 | 959.890081224932 | -99.8900812249317 |
| 47 | 1050 | 979.260602823278 | 70.7393971767222 |
| 48 | 840 | 918.896272599194 | -78.8962725991942 |
| 49 | 810 | 847.09106914016 | -37.0910691401604 |
| 50 | 830 | 866.353708044819 | -36.3537080448189 |
| 51 | 920 | 883.423992624965 | 36.5760073750348 |
| 52 | 1070 | 1033.65623028947 | 36.3437697105251 |
| 53 | 1040 | 1065.05349517609 | -25.0534951760876 |
| 54 | 740 | 774.813900187964 | -34.8139001879641 |
| 55 | 1250 | 1143.80516174557 | 106.194838254428 |
| 56 | 850 | 896.795954831742 | -46.7959548317423 |
| 57 | 790 | 743.91184417102 | 46.08815582898 |
| 58 | 810 | 872.310377580901 | -62.3103775809008 |
| 59 | 1080 | 1054.43454993214 | 25.5654500678552 |
| 60 | 760 | 850.376392993717 | -90.3763929937168 |
| 61 | 840 | 817.030168104099 | 22.9698318959006 |
| 62 | 820 | 840.452881108679 | -20.452881108679 |
| 63 | 900 | 927.089932535315 | -27.0899325353146 |
| 64 | 1010 | 1073.1810035462 | -63.1810035461986 |
| 65 | 1080 | 1040.49124243455 | 39.5087575654516 |
| 66 | 780 | 744.573133521129 | 35.4268664788709 |
| 67 | 1150 | 1250.32805503337 | -100.328055033366 |
| 68 | 820 | 846.542641190855 | -26.5426411908554 |
| 69 | 790 | 781.690535643938 | 8.30946435606245 |
| 70 | 820 | 805.144157481458 | 14.8558425185421 |
| 71 | 1130 | 1074.03114243246 | 55.9688575675393 |
| 72 | 800 | 762.216136712515 | 37.7838632874846 |
| 73 | 890 | 843.024655343484 | 46.9753446565155 |
| 74 | 810 | 826.984982682248 | -16.9849826822477 |
| 75 | 950 | 907.590556805441 | 42.4094431945595 |
| 76 | 1090 | 1023.98540250928 | 66.014597490716 |
| 77 | 1090 | 1096.08437107121 | -6.08437107121472 |
| 78 | 850 | 794.069930451466 | 55.9300695485343 |
| 79 | 1200 | 1173.71637881869 | 26.2836211813101 |
| 80 | 790 | 847.631225957088 | -57.6312259570883 |
| 81 | 800 | 814.493160655963 | -14.4931606559635 |
| 82 | 850 | 843.441552391687 | 6.55844760831292 |
| 83 | 1230 | 1151.19046905163 | 78.809530948371 |
| 84 | 800 | 824.30766113015 | -24.3076611301503 |
| 85 | 930 | 910.668106231706 | 19.331893768294 |
| 86 | 700 | 833.269193335944 | -133.269193335944 |
| 87 | 1030 | 963.11860491999 | 66.8813950800104 |
| 88 | 1040 | 1103.39398258851 | -63.3939825885066 |
| 89 | 1000 | 1099.90949867226 | -99.9094986722614 |
| 90 | 830 | 850.392081174073 | -20.3920811740734 |
| 91 | 1190 | 1197.07702002316 | -7.07702002315614 |
| 92 | 720 | 789.378762258636 | -69.3787622586356 |
| 93 | 810 | 795.461374977066 | 14.5386250229344 |
| 94 | 870 | 845.310841225469 | 24.6891587745309 |
| 95 | 1190 | 1221.56437833357 | -31.5643783335724 |
| 96 | 800 | 790.273195426782 | 9.72680457321792 |
| 97 | 970 | 918.935137323918 | 51.0648626760816 |
| 98 | 690 | 699.063197352056 | -9.06319735205602 |
| 99 | 1010 | 1024.24866666885 | -14.248666668846 |
| 100 | 1030 | 1036.55826633795 | -6.55826633794823 |
| 101 | 950 | 1001.6139558763 | -51.6139558762993 |
| 102 | 830 | 829.488110664636 | 0.511889335363549 |
| 103 | 1150 | 1189.69573309587 | -39.6957330958653 |
| 104 | 750 | 721.112793782058 | 28.8872062179419 |
| 105 | 840 | 811.892515512199 | 28.1074844878008 |
| 106 | 880 | 872.067050257252 | 7.93294974274772 |
| 107 | 1210 | 1194.31411096024 | 15.6858890397571 |
| 108 | 830 | 804.719229525285 | 25.2807704747147 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 109 | 973.303057922568 | 873.407589759261 | 1073.19852608588 |
| 110 | 693.795457394015 | 593.712128429036 | 793.878786358994 |
| 111 | 1014.61638300206 | 914.328875343762 | 1114.90389066037 |
| 112 | 1035.02406911389 | 934.515455469707 | 1135.53268275807 |
| 113 | 958.093374144876 | 857.346131502214 | 1058.84061678754 |
| 114 | 838.241582351679 | 737.237606524534 | 939.245558178824 |
| 115 | 1160.74800915794 | 1059.46863018398 | 1262.02738813191 |
| 116 | 759.335708586083 | 657.761706952849 | 860.909710219318 |
| 117 | 847.891980222701 | 746.003603895947 | 949.780356549456 |
| 118 | 887.557093043724 | 785.334075264957 | 989.780110822491 |
| 119 | 1216.74602761242 | 1114.16760542734 | 1319.32444979749 |
| 120 | 835.329973826138 | 732.374907300253 | 938.285040352023 |
