| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 0.18172931270663 |
| beta | 0.161595572835499 |
| gamma | FALSE |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 3 | 1030 | 920 | 110 |
| 4 | 970 | 893.220556160391 | 76.7794438396095 |
| 5 | 1070 | 862.65871871979 | 207.34128128021 |
| 6 | 1650 | 861.912713595987 | 788.087286404013 |
| 7 | 1010 | 989.848766231549 | 20.1512337684509 |
| 8 | 980 | 978.820102096272 | 1.17989790372826 |
| 9 | 1050 | 964.378439784764 | 85.6215602152364 |
| 10 | 1010 | 967.796721324676 | 42.2032786753243 |
| 11 | 1040 | 964.563997415921 | 75.4360025840786 |
| 12 | 1120 | 969.585936447888 | 150.414063552112 |
| 13 | 1090 | 992.650744486227 | 97.3492555137725 |
| 14 | 1060 | 1008.93094317774 | 51.0690568222632 |
| 15 | 990 | 1018.30040040859 | -28.3004004085857 |
| 16 | 950 | 1012.41501270574 | -62.4150127057389 |
| 17 | 1540 | 998.497079974966 | 541.502920025034 |
| 18 | 870 | 1110.23086610993 | -240.230866109935 |
| 19 | 1070 | 1072.84593223317 | -2.84593223316665 |
| 20 | 1050 | 1078.51722373412 | -28.5172237341214 |
| 21 | 1020 | 1078.68583367785 | -58.6858336778503 |
| 22 | 960 | 1071.64851639348 | -111.648516393484 |
| 23 | 1100 | 1051.70758400956 | 48.2924159904389 |
| 24 | 1190 | 1062.25079393479 | 127.749206065214 |
| 25 | 1040 | 1090.98519823751 | -50.9851982375133 |
| 26 | 1090 | 1085.74105749571 | 4.2589425042886 |
| 27 | 1050 | 1090.66146736605 | -40.6614673660488 |
| 28 | 850 | 1086.22443084643 | -236.224430846432 |
| 29 | 1100 | 1039.31075063647 | 60.6892493635271 |
| 30 | 850 | 1048.137229554 | -198.137229554003 |
| 31 | 1040 | 1004.10872320217 | 35.8912767978267 |
| 32 | 990 | 1003.6640631129 | -13.664063112898 |
| 33 | 1040 | 993.812477369061 | 46.1875226309387 |
| 34 | 1100 | 996.194052088612 | 103.805947911388 |
| 35 | 1030 | 1012.09501682172 | 17.9049831782803 |
| 36 | 1290 | 1012.91106769005 | 277.08893230995 |
| 37 | 1040 | 1068.96561385433 | -28.9656138543294 |
| 38 | 1170 | 1068.55045458018 | 101.449545419825 |
| 39 | 1040 | 1094.81478610269 | -54.8147861026855 |
| 40 | 860 | 1091.07158128786 | -231.071581287859 |
| 41 | 1090 | 1048.51155141977 | 41.4884485802297 |
| 42 | 870 | 1056.70204529847 | -186.702045298474 |
| 43 | 1080 | 1017.94082349404 | 62.0591765059627 |
| 44 | 1000 | 1026.20927782011 | -26.2092778201081 |
| 45 | 980 | 1017.66708785675 | -37.6670878567463 |
| 46 | 1080 | 1005.93652167475 | 74.0634783252477 |
| 47 | 1040 | 1016.68567091595 | 23.3143290840543 |
| 48 | 1280 | 1018.89687594296 | 261.103124057042 |
| 49 | 1140 | 1071.98899993131 | 68.0110000686921 |
| 50 | 1220 | 1091.98788033576 | 128.012119664242 |
| 51 | 1080 | 1126.65001038554 | -46.6500103855446 |
| 52 | 790 | 1128.20095694663 | -338.200956946627 |
| 53 | 1020 | 1066.83672043031 | -46.8367204303129 |
| 54 | 830 | 1057.04646867554 | -227.046468675538 |
| 55 | 1150 | 1007.83922850764 | 142.160771492355 |
| 56 | 1030 | 1029.90255230138 | 0.097447698624137 |
| 57 | 900 | 1026.15166761394 | -126.151667613944 |
| 58 | 1140 | 995.752965799976 | 144.247034200024 |
| 59 | 1010 | 1018.72968673475 | -8.7296867347527 |
| 60 | 1270 | 1013.64969163814 | 256.350308361856 |
| 61 | 1090 | 1064.27065225789 | 25.7293477421051 |
| 62 | 1090 | 1073.73660901978 | 16.2633909802166 |
| 63 | 980 | 1081.95992531479 | -101.959925314787 |
| 64 | 850 | 1065.70437790939 | -215.704377909392 |
| 65 | 1010 | 1022.44361382519 | -12.4436138251897 |
| 66 | 810 | 1015.75586141658 | -205.755861416581 |
| 67 | 1070 | 967.895246256436 | 102.104753743564 |
| 68 | 1040 | 978.980403909117 | 61.0195960908832 |
| 69 | 880 | 984.391125366379 | -104.391125366379 |
| 70 | 1110 | 956.676252207896 | 153.323747792104 |
| 71 | 1010 | 980.298331026991 | 29.7016689730092 |
| 72 | 1230 | 982.326893014995 | 247.673106985005 |
| 73 | 490 | 1031.24058466124 | -541.240584661238 |
| 74 | 1040 | 920.891109231826 | 119.108890768174 |
| 75 | 1010 | 934.044319509874 | 75.9556804901256 |
| 76 | 860 | 941.585890608843 | -81.5858906088425 |
| 77 | 1010 | 918.101635780011 | 91.8983642199888 |
| 78 | 800 | 928.843302663704 | -128.843302663704 |
| 79 | 1130 | 895.686041657082 | 234.313958342918 |
| 80 | 1040 | 935.406116661889 | 104.593883338111 |
| 81 | 940 | 954.623823805703 | -14.6238238057032 |
| 82 | 1070 | 951.746726217529 | 118.253273782471 |
| 83 | 1030 | 976.489995033398 | 53.5100049666021 |
| 84 | 1320 | 991.038923820104 | 328.961076179896 |
| 85 | 1040 | 1065.30587203601 | -25.3058720360077 |
| 86 | 1070 | 1074.44898249051 | -4.44898249050789 |
| 87 | 1070 | 1087.25174942503 | -17.2517494250314 |
| 88 | 770 | 1097.22125219535 | -327.221252195354 |
| 89 | 1010 | 1041.25081750008 | -31.2508175000792 |
| 90 | 810 | 1038.1491545891 | -228.149154589099 |
| 91 | 1150 | 992.565315290457 | 157.434684709543 |
| 92 | 1030 | 1021.67669175799 | 8.32330824200631 |
| 93 | 890 | 1023.93458796321 | -133.934587963205 |
| 94 | 1010 | 996.40684397653 | 13.59315602347 |
| 95 | 1120 | 996.088400997508 | 123.911599002492 |
| 96 | 1250 | 1019.45692169465 | 230.543078305345 |
| 97 | 990 | 1068.97378627941 | -78.9737862794141 |
| 98 | 1020 | 1059.92316806266 | -39.9231680626558 |
| 99 | 1110 | 1056.79678205648 | 53.2032179435191 |
| 100 | 830 | 1072.15659058132 | -242.156590581322 |
| 101 | 1030 | 1026.72953568276 | 3.27046431724216 |
| 102 | 870 | 1025.99981337927 | -155.999813379274 |
| 103 | 1260 | 991.744820683332 | 268.255179316668 |
| 104 | 980 | 1042.46715282461 | -62.4671528246074 |
| 105 | 940 | 1031.25309168646 | -91.2530916864578 |
| 106 | 970 | 1012.12798384046 | -42.1279838404579 |
| 107 | 1100 | 1000.69319022271 | 99.3068097772922 |
| 108 | 1320 | 1017.87755300439 | 302.12244699561 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 109 | 1080.79178702339 | 745.156828127868 | 1416.42674591892 |
| 110 | 1088.80151639664 | 745.769861692413 | 1431.83317110087 |
| 111 | 1096.81124576989 | 744.413114914503 | 1449.20937662527 |
| 112 | 1104.82097514313 | 740.971685818579 | 1468.67026446769 |
| 113 | 1112.83070451638 | 735.377920092414 | 1490.28348894035 |
| 114 | 1120.84043388963 | 727.608135854391 | 1514.07273192487 |
| 115 | 1128.85016326288 | 717.676583380332 | 1540.02374314542 |
| 116 | 1136.85989263612 | 705.627794571865 | 1568.09199070038 |
| 117 | 1144.86962200937 | 691.528504035344 | 1598.21073998339 |
| 118 | 1152.87935138262 | 675.460087491875 | 1630.29861527336 |
| 119 | 1160.88908075586 | 657.512109222148 | 1664.26605228958 |
| 120 | 1168.89881012911 | 637.777227757605 | 1700.02039250061 |
