| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 0.0166349237186978 |
| beta | 0.123094203000456 |
| gamma | 0.628042420767867 |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 13 | 1090 | 1139.33978145826 | -49.3397814582597 |
| 14 | 1060 | 1099.1202329441 | -39.1202329441032 |
| 15 | 990 | 1021.9761689801 | -31.9761689801027 |
| 16 | 950 | 980.912412177852 | -30.9124121778516 |
| 17 | 1540 | 1584.78086237977 | -44.7808623797705 |
| 18 | 870 | 888.123048498275 | -18.1230484982752 |
| 19 | 1070 | 1020.1224071209 | 49.877592879098 |
| 20 | 1050 | 982.127521741793 | 67.8724782582066 |
| 21 | 1020 | 1049.03382963241 | -29.0338296324119 |
| 22 | 960 | 1008.51971277041 | -48.5197127704114 |
| 23 | 1100 | 1017.49236507436 | 82.5076349256367 |
| 24 | 1190 | 1107.63962208189 | 82.3603779181115 |
| 25 | 1040 | 1077.74852741599 | -37.7485274159894 |
| 26 | 1090 | 1044.90515192177 | 45.0948480782304 |
| 27 | 1050 | 975.611757002663 | 74.3882429973368 |
| 28 | 850 | 938.285071995565 | -88.285071995565 |
| 29 | 1100 | 1517.78257167018 | -417.782571670176 |
| 30 | 850 | 851.013972285135 | -1.01397228513451 |
| 31 | 1040 | 1019.91437888112 | 20.0856211188807 |
| 32 | 990 | 993.005970403139 | -3.00597040313949 |
| 33 | 1040 | 998.221127321786 | 41.7788726782143 |
| 34 | 1100 | 948.119497876101 | 151.880502123899 |
| 35 | 1030 | 1038.87898710833 | -8.87898710833406 |
| 36 | 1290 | 1124.68801826614 | 165.311981733855 |
| 37 | 1040 | 1025.0076360603 | 14.9923639396998 |
| 38 | 1170 | 1043.85635363253 | 126.14364636747 |
| 39 | 1040 | 995.616170932359 | 44.3838290676407 |
| 40 | 860 | 861.069942000246 | -1.06994200024587 |
| 41 | 1090 | 1228.85251018998 | -138.852510189981 |
| 42 | 870 | 833.233257669047 | 36.7667423309529 |
| 43 | 1080 | 1013.17585215241 | 66.8241478475911 |
| 44 | 1000 | 974.506728637535 | 25.4932713624646 |
| 45 | 980 | 1008.38517018296 | -28.3851701829564 |
| 46 | 1080 | 1025.54581696861 | 54.4541830313856 |
| 47 | 1040 | 1016.31590338261 | 23.6840966173927 |
| 48 | 1280 | 1207.84961480573 | 72.1503851942668 |
| 49 | 1140 | 1017.64832530586 | 122.351674694141 |
| 50 | 1220 | 1106.4366610516 | 113.563338948405 |
| 51 | 1080 | 1009.66190731183 | 70.3380926881675 |
| 52 | 790 | 850.254327888861 | -60.2543278888612 |
| 53 | 1020 | 1128.92874316945 | -108.928743169449 |
| 54 | 830 | 846.289954914574 | -16.2899549145735 |
| 55 | 1150 | 1042.06859804744 | 107.931401952564 |
| 56 | 1030 | 979.947242343625 | 50.0527576563746 |
| 57 | 900 | 981.675492937545 | -81.6754929375447 |
| 58 | 1140 | 1049.04139053724 | 90.9586094627571 |
| 59 | 1010 | 1022.38604374788 | -12.3860437478813 |
| 60 | 1270 | 1242.02466371729 | 27.9753362827096 |
| 61 | 1090 | 1083.9636266134 | 6.0363733865961 |
| 62 | 1090 | 1164.80810325277 | -74.8081032527709 |
| 63 | 980 | 1039.70929545324 | -59.7092954532422 |
| 64 | 850 | 800.767855705238 | 49.2321442947616 |
| 65 | 1010 | 1047.86325095837 | -37.8632509583651 |
| 66 | 810 | 826.36507773941 | -16.3650777394101 |
| 67 | 1070 | 1095.64425376423 | -25.6442537642347 |
| 68 | 1040 | 996.746558050214 | 43.2534419497861 |
| 69 | 880 | 917.910710637561 | -37.9107106375609 |
| 70 | 1110 | 1090.07340905272 | 19.9265909472808 |
| 71 | 1010 | 999.538668119817 | 10.4613318801833 |
| 72 | 1230 | 1240.67713781432 | -10.6771378143212 |
| 73 | 490 | 1070.79104080212 | -580.791040802116 |
| 74 | 1040 | 1089.62279147764 | -49.6227914776355 |
| 75 | 1010 | 975.833896945459 | 34.1661030545414 |
| 76 | 860 | 809.089900628628 | 50.9100993713716 |
| 77 | 1010 | 996.138979407293 | 13.8610205927067 |
| 78 | 800 | 793.495686987241 | 6.50431301275887 |
| 79 | 1130 | 1049.11401052716 | 80.8859894728396 |
| 80 | 1040 | 995.210700678738 | 44.789299321262 |
| 81 | 940 | 869.127233866761 | 70.8727661332388 |
| 82 | 1070 | 1072.72158677696 | -2.72158677696189 |
| 83 | 1030 | 978.008106110541 | 51.9918938894593 |
| 84 | 1320 | 1199.97900277459 | 120.020997225408 |
| 85 | 1040 | 690.287875122444 | 349.712124877556 |
| 86 | 1070 | 1051.38752211472 | 18.6124778852836 |
| 87 | 1070 | 992.846532741216 | 77.1534672587836 |
| 88 | 770 | 839.428166367651 | -69.4281663676512 |
| 89 | 1010 | 1002.80943426996 | 7.19056573003945 |
| 90 | 810 | 797.363837369596 | 12.6361626304036 |
| 91 | 1150 | 1100.95020359305 | 49.049796406945 |
| 92 | 1030 | 1025.91498877962 | 4.08501122038069 |
| 93 | 890 | 916.487632697008 | -26.4876326970078 |
| 94 | 1010 | 1074.91294656428 | -64.9129465642786 |
| 95 | 1120 | 1014.12406065895 | 105.875939341054 |
| 96 | 1250 | 1282.01149457536 | -32.0114945753601 |
| 97 | 990 | 909.358116158114 | 80.6418838418856 |
| 98 | 1020 | 1061.61675187578 | -41.6167518757782 |
| 99 | 1110 | 1038.43972169082 | 71.5602783091813 |
| 100 | 830 | 795.004455450353 | 34.9955445496465 |
| 101 | 1030 | 1007.95419524682 | 22.0458047531815 |
| 102 | 870 | 806.319433146035 | 63.6805668539653 |
| 103 | 1260 | 1134.73084243834 | 125.269157561662 |
| 104 | 980 | 1033.53376609989 | -53.5337660998869 |
| 105 | 940 | 904.317794423654 | 35.6822055763458 |
| 106 | 970 | 1041.59856668242 | -71.5985666824229 |
| 107 | 1100 | 1087.18410267255 | 12.8158973274517 |
| 108 | 1320 | 1270.10556752789 | 49.8944324721056 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 109 | 966.780531975964 | 839.884192834228 | 1093.6768711177 |
| 110 | 1043.20936408844 | 916.248988551201 | 1170.16973962567 |
| 111 | 1091.59176954252 | 964.549005175076 | 1218.63453390996 |
| 112 | 822.830583133819 | 695.801814818127 | 949.859351449511 |
| 113 | 1028.9827299662 | 901.751469770371 | 1156.21399016203 |
| 114 | 851.70264794753 | 724.494155150062 | 978.911140744998 |
| 115 | 1219.30195172439 | 1091.53681860639 | 1347.06708484239 |
| 116 | 1004.59960028165 | 876.971344259201 | 1132.2278563041 |
| 117 | 931.030904584312 | 803.354355591531 | 1058.70745357709 |
| 118 | 1001.68332341656 | 873.678784686195 | 1129.68786214692 |
| 119 | 1101.25060893431 | 972.748551856235 | 1229.75266601238 |
| 120 | 1308.05524079038 | 878.244418179061 | 1737.86606340171 |
