| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 0.40085366746159 |
| beta | 0.036898409056069 |
| gamma | 1 |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 13 | 159990 | 162572.917200855 | -2582.91720085469 |
| 14 | 157043 | 158618.661142053 | -1575.66114205323 |
| 15 | 155745 | 156831.111981049 | -1086.11198104906 |
| 16 | 157043 | 157955.860863563 | -912.860863563197 |
| 17 | 161634 | 162469.181092313 | -835.181092313229 |
| 18 | 160967 | 161661.453160146 | -694.453160145902 |
| 19 | 154763 | 154793.364974433 | -30.3649744327122 |
| 20 | 149510 | 151062.488182649 | -1552.48818264939 |
| 21 | 148527 | 150429.791747803 | -1902.79174780296 |
| 22 | 146563 | 149267.614246187 | -2704.61424618706 |
| 23 | 147892 | 148060.019677757 | -168.019677756645 |
| 24 | 149510 | 148312.743188978 | 1197.25681102209 |
| 25 | 148874 | 146984.405880664 | 1889.59411933611 |
| 26 | 147545 | 145302.582390185 | 2242.4176098147 |
| 27 | 144950 | 145271.424591431 | -321.424591430841 |
| 28 | 147545 | 146750.403283785 | 794.596716214757 |
| 29 | 149856 | 151963.859759528 | -2107.85975952842 |
| 30 | 149190 | 150680.620589306 | -1490.62058930617 |
| 31 | 141656 | 143829.825816361 | -2173.82581636118 |
| 32 | 138394 | 138234.610758077 | 159.389241923462 |
| 33 | 135132 | 138010.414125463 | -2878.41412546256 |
| 34 | 132505 | 135894.486064604 | -3389.48606460399 |
| 35 | 132190 | 135839.759862025 | -3649.75986202495 |
| 36 | 134150 | 135370.927924927 | -1220.92792492729 |
| 37 | 131523 | 133308.40919015 | -1785.40919014951 |
| 38 | 130541 | 130130.829010887 | 410.170989112637 |
| 39 | 129559 | 127567.980239846 | 1991.01976015395 |
| 40 | 135132 | 130415.662308903 | 4716.33769109652 |
| 41 | 135768 | 135293.264320415 | 474.735679585341 |
| 42 | 132505 | 135284.380838889 | -2779.3808388894 |
| 43 | 123670 | 127357.876261712 | -3687.87626171242 |
| 44 | 119745 | 122381.526037238 | -2636.52603723774 |
| 45 | 113541 | 119002.974028157 | -5461.97402815668 |
| 46 | 110910 | 115293.482811312 | -4383.48281131219 |
| 47 | 112208 | 114417.938391006 | -2209.93839100623 |
| 48 | 114172 | 115736.357234874 | -1564.35723487432 |
| 49 | 114172 | 112947.754422466 | 1224.24557753437 |
| 50 | 112559 | 112086.382297565 | 472.617702435484 |
| 51 | 112208 | 110290.951995546 | 1917.04800445422 |
| 52 | 117465 | 114535.979083792 | 2929.02091620762 |
| 53 | 121710 | 115923.484990485 | 5786.51500951484 |
| 54 | 119745 | 115940.418223205 | 3804.58177679546 |
| 55 | 113190 | 110052.442459405 | 3137.55754059482 |
| 56 | 109932 | 108486.604044484 | 1445.3959555164 |
| 57 | 103061 | 105156.42278894 | -2095.42278894027 |
| 58 | 98817 | 103597.368391061 | -4780.36839106113 |
| 59 | 102079 | 104013.900169291 | -1934.90016929121 |
| 60 | 105341 | 105982.332798329 | -641.332798328978 |
| 61 | 105341 | 105401.127315289 | -60.1273152893846 |
| 62 | 101097 | 103722.195988998 | -2625.19598899801 |
| 63 | 100781 | 101652.222956952 | -871.222956952188 |
| 64 | 106319 | 105446.442461719 | 872.557538281413 |
| 65 | 109932 | 107751.808918944 | 2180.1910810564 |
| 66 | 108630 | 105112.469640791 | 3517.5303592086 |
| 67 | 102079 | 98682.3410902189 | 3396.65890978109 |
| 68 | 97835 | 96182.9022859177 | 1652.09771408225 |
| 69 | 88652 | 90793.5572050506 | -2141.55720505056 |
| 70 | 85075 | 87586.0995605007 | -2511.09956050075 |
| 71 | 86372 | 90629.4575786053 | -4257.45757860529 |
| 72 | 91946 | 92419.8977281858 | -473.897728185824 |
| 73 | 92261 | 92234.4898795581 | 26.5101204419188 |
| 74 | 84092 | 89035.1709798336 | -4943.17097983362 |
| 75 | 87039 | 87034.36581284 | 4.63418716001615 |
| 76 | 94226 | 92184.860368829 | 2041.13963117103 |
| 77 | 97488 | 95719.8102367034 | 1768.18976329658 |
| 78 | 95523 | 93688.1759398401 | 1834.82406015988 |
| 79 | 86692 | 86457.815331393 | 234.184668607049 |
| 80 | 80484 | 81545.3705840083 | -1061.37058400831 |
| 81 | 73297 | 72655.1637128826 | 641.836287117432 |
| 82 | 67724 | 70242.9947616446 | -2518.9947616446 |
| 83 | 70004 | 72137.7123317068 | -2133.7123317068 |
| 84 | 74910 | 76978.6299588477 | -2068.62995884774 |
| 85 | 73613 | 76362.45830719 | -2749.45830719001 |
| 86 | 66426 | 68940.4300427701 | -2514.43004277012 |
| 87 | 68706 | 70781.1910465009 | -2075.19104650088 |
| 88 | 75893 | 76190.9195274912 | -297.919527491191 |
| 89 | 79821 | 78462.8900679081 | 1358.10993209195 |
| 90 | 77541 | 76138.9100539111 | 1402.08994608889 |
| 91 | 68706 | 67601.7812493865 | 1104.21875061349 |
| 92 | 64782 | 62100.4463126932 | 2681.55368730685 |
| 93 | 58893 | 55625.0162280474 | 3267.98377195257 |
| 94 | 52684 | 52304.5324982633 | 379.467501736726 |
| 95 | 53666 | 55567.605310062 | -1901.60531006202 |
| 96 | 58573 | 60519.6462747208 | -1946.64627472082 |
| 97 | 59208 | 59525.3491877655 | -317.34918776554 |
| 98 | 53319 | 53235.922863549 | 83.077136450971 |
| 99 | 54302 | 56436.35770917 | -2134.35770917 |
| 100 | 62502 | 62941.624732119 | -439.624732118951 |
| 101 | 64462 | 66201.3102597781 | -1739.31025977814 |
| 102 | 61173 | 62668.56901077 | -1495.56901077004 |
| 103 | 49075 | 52755.0762210019 | -3680.07622100189 |
| 104 | 42871 | 46173.8713606947 | -3302.87136069467 |
| 105 | 34671 | 37455.2829932991 | -2784.28299329906 |
| 106 | 26502 | 29692.9267692106 | -3190.92676921061 |
| 107 | 29129 | 29820.1330874874 | -691.133087487382 |
| 108 | 32706 | 34910.3496351672 | -2204.34963516721 |
| 109 | 32075 | 34465.0664123612 | -2390.06641236123 |
| 110 | 25835 | 27230.1683020331 | -1395.1683020331 |
| 111 | 29444 | 28133.0811130446 | 1310.91888695538 |
| 112 | 38280 | 36709.3575817443 | 1570.64241825569 |
| 113 | 42204 | 39700.4624759984 | 2503.5375240016 |
| 114 | 40244 | 37781.5725997467 | 2462.42740025331 |
| 115 | 32391 | 27971.4134874999 | 4419.5865125001 |
| 116 | 26186 | 24808.3858301105 | 1377.61416988945 |
| 117 | 19631 | 18291.3227722498 | 1339.67722775015 |
| 118 | 12093 | 12014.054129896 | 78.9458701039839 |
| 119 | 13427 | 15073.7294708366 | -1646.72947083657 |
| 120 | 15707 | 18984.105830513 | -3277.10583051302 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 121 | 18091.518108836 | 13597.4442782881 | 22585.591939384 |
| 122 | 12540.1128655992 | 7673.29778821254 | 17406.9279429858 |
| 123 | 15773.5983908358 | 10536.4402887343 | 21010.7564929374 |
| 124 | 24110.5831648963 | 18504.2167471846 | 29716.949582608 |
| 125 | 27138.3823582695 | 21162.9924868358 | 33113.7722297031 |
| 126 | 24261.6312160014 | 17916.6740882656 | 30606.5883437373 |
| 127 | 14670.9242404595 | 7955.28787674762 | 21386.5606041714 |
| 128 | 7882.23353794272 | 794.357028403302 | 14970.1100474821 |
| 129 | 738.373895920904 | -6723.66220261553 | 8200.40999445734 |
| 130 | -6902.93193950007 | -14741.3358958033 | 935.472016803136 |
| 131 | -4981.66216317405 | -13198.8765209663 | 3235.55219461824 |
| 132 | -1436.49349439702 | -10035.1518341297 | 7162.16484533567 |
