| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 0.00161353096763727 |
| beta | FALSE |
| gamma | FALSE |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 2 | 970 | 1020 | -50 |
| 3 | 1030 | 1019.91932345162 | 10.0806765483819 |
| 4 | 970 | 1019.9355889354 | -49.9355889354036 |
| 5 | 1070 | 1019.85501631627 | 50.1449836837309 |
| 6 | 1650 | 1019.93592680031 | 630.064073199685 |
| 7 | 1010 | 1020.95255469402 | -10.9525546940179 |
| 8 | 980 | 1020.93488240784 | -40.9348824078443 |
| 9 | 1050 | 1020.86883270742 | 29.1311672925774 |
| 10 | 1010 | 1020.91583674797 | -10.9158367479725 |
| 11 | 1040 | 1020.89822370734 | 19.101776292658 |
| 12 | 1120 | 1020.92904501493 | 99.0709549850729 |
| 13 | 1090 | 1021.08889906879 | 68.9111009312111 |
| 14 | 1060 | 1021.20008926416 | 38.7999107358446 |
| 15 | 990 | 1021.26269412167 | -31.2626941216693 |
| 16 | 950 | 1021.21225079657 | -71.2122507965722 |
| 17 | 1540 | 1021.09734762464 | 518.902652375363 |
| 18 | 870 | 1021.93461312343 | -151.934613123434 |
| 19 | 1070 | 1021.6894619201 | 48.3105380798971 |
| 20 | 1050 | 1021.76741246936 | 28.232587530642 |
| 21 | 1020 | 1021.81296662364 | -1.81296662363513 |
| 22 | 960 | 1021.81004134584 | -61.8100413458446 |
| 23 | 1100 | 1021.71030893002 | 78.2896910699778 |
| 24 | 1190 | 1021.83663177101 | 168.16336822899 |
| 25 | 1040 | 1022.10796857327 | 17.8920314267301 |
| 26 | 1090 | 1022.13683792005 | 67.8631620799491 |
| 27 | 1050 | 1022.24633723363 | 27.7536627663713 |
| 28 | 850 | 1022.29111862797 | -172.291118627968 |
| 29 | 1100 | 1022.01312157261 | 77.9868784273875 |
| 30 | 850 | 1022.13895581602 | -172.138955816024 |
| 31 | 1040 | 1021.86120428008 | 18.1387957199214 |
| 32 | 990 | 1021.89047178869 | -31.8904717886884 |
| 33 | 1040 | 1021.83901552488 | 18.1609844751152 |
| 34 | 1100 | 1021.86831883574 | 78.1316811642619 |
| 35 | 1030 | 1021.99438672285 | 8.00561327714979 |
| 36 | 1290 | 1022.00730402779 | 267.992695972212 |
| 37 | 1040 | 1022.43971854184 | 17.5602814581605 |
| 38 | 1170 | 1022.46805259977 | 147.531947400227 |
| 39 | 1040 | 1022.70609996562 | 17.2939000343812 |
| 40 | 860 | 1022.73400420888 | -162.734004208875 |
| 41 | 1090 | 1022.4714278536 | 67.5285721464031 |
| 42 | 870 | 1022.58038729596 | -152.580387295955 |
| 43 | 1080 | 1022.334194116 | 57.6658058840006 |
| 44 | 1000 | 1022.42723967957 | -22.4272396795669 |
| 45 | 980 | 1022.39105263383 | -42.3910526338253 |
| 46 | 1080 | 1022.32265335765 | 57.6773466423501 |
| 47 | 1040 | 1022.41571754259 | 17.5842824574115 |
| 48 | 1280 | 1022.44409032688 | 257.555909673123 |
| 49 | 1140 | 1022.85966476303 | 117.140335236967 |
| 50 | 1220 | 1023.0486743215 | 196.951325678503 |
| 51 | 1080 | 1023.3664613846 | 56.6335386154035 |
| 52 | 790 | 1023.45784135296 | -233.457841352959 |
| 53 | 1020 | 1023.0811498963 | -3.0811498962986 |
| 54 | 830 | 1023.07617836553 | -193.076178365525 |
| 55 | 1150 | 1022.76464397262 | 127.235356027381 |
| 56 | 1030 | 1022.96994215975 | 7.03005784025231 |
| 57 | 900 | 1022.98128537578 | -122.981285375777 |
| 58 | 1140 | 1022.78285126338 | 117.217148736616 |
| 59 | 1010 | 1022.97198476281 | -12.9719847628082 |
| 60 | 1270 | 1022.95105406368 | 247.048945936318 |
| 61 | 1090 | 1023.34967518847 | 66.650324811528 |
| 62 | 1090 | 1023.45721755156 | 66.5427824484415 |
| 63 | 980 | 1023.56458639171 | -43.5645863917118 |
| 64 | 850 | 1023.49429358248 | -173.494293582477 |
| 65 | 1010 | 1023.21435516707 | -13.2143551670729 |
| 66 | 810 | 1023.19303339579 | -213.193033395793 |
| 67 | 1070 | 1022.84903983432 | 47.1509601656752 |
| 68 | 1040 | 1022.92511936871 | 17.074880631294 |
| 69 | 880 | 1022.95267021737 | -142.952670217373 |
| 70 | 1110 | 1022.72201165707 | 87.2779883429289 |
| 71 | 1010 | 1022.86283739406 | -12.8628373940555 |
| 72 | 1230 | 1022.84208280759 | 207.157917192411 |
| 73 | 490 | 1023.17633852217 | -533.17633852217 |
| 74 | 1040 | 1022.31604198875 | 17.6839580112472 |
| 75 | 1010 | 1022.34457560263 | -12.3445756026343 |
| 76 | 860 | 1022.32465724762 | -162.324657247617 |
| 77 | 1010 | 1022.06274138634 | -12.0627413863369 |
| 78 | 800 | 1022.04327777956 | -222.043277779556 |
| 79 | 1130 | 1021.6850040747 | 108.314995925297 |
| 80 | 1040 | 1021.85977367489 | 18.1402263251125 |
| 81 | 940 | 1021.88904349182 | -81.889043491823 |
| 82 | 1070 | 1021.75691298424 | 48.2430870157613 |
| 83 | 1030 | 1021.83475469911 | 8.16524530088691 |
| 84 | 1320 | 1021.84792957526 | 298.152070424736 |
| 85 | 1040 | 1022.32900717396 | 17.6709928260401 |
| 86 | 1070 | 1022.35751986811 | 47.6424801318864 |
| 87 | 1070 | 1022.43439248518 | 47.5656075148186 |
| 88 | 770 | 1022.5111410659 | -252.511141065901 |
| 89 | 1010 | 1022.10370652012 | -12.1037065201177 |
| 90 | 810 | 1022.08417681482 | -212.084176814824 |
| 91 | 1150 | 1021.74197242779 | 128.258027572212 |
| 92 | 1030 | 1021.94892072712 | 8.05107927287634 |
| 93 | 890 | 1021.96191139285 | -131.961911392853 |
| 94 | 1010 | 1021.74898676227 | -11.7489867622724 |
| 95 | 1120 | 1021.73002940829 | 98.269970591707 |
| 96 | 1250 | 1021.88859104903 | 228.111408950968 |
| 97 | 990 | 1022.25665587145 | -32.2566558714453 |
| 98 | 1020 | 1022.20460875828 | -2.20460875828428 |
| 99 | 1110 | 1022.20105155378 | 87.7989484462188 |
| 100 | 830 | 1022.34271787603 | -192.342717876025 |
| 101 | 1030 | 1022.03236694433 | 7.96763305566731 |
| 102 | 870 | 1022.04522296701 | -152.045222967007 |
| 103 | 1260 | 1021.79989329127 | 238.200106708732 |
| 104 | 980 | 1022.18423653994 | -42.1842365399373 |
| 105 | 940 | 1022.11617096793 | -82.116170967934 |
| 106 | 970 | 1021.98367398313 | -51.9836739831334 |
| 107 | 1100 | 1021.89979671535 | 78.10020328465 |
| 108 | 1320 | 1022.02581381193 | 297.974186188071 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 109 | 1022.5066043889 | 729.446267714755 | 1315.56694106304 |
| 110 | 1022.5066043889 | 729.44588622632 | 1315.56732255148 |
| 111 | 1022.5066043889 | 729.445504738383 | 1315.56770403942 |
| 112 | 1022.5066043889 | 729.445123250942 | 1315.56808552686 |
| 113 | 1022.5066043889 | 729.444741763997 | 1315.5684670138 |
| 114 | 1022.5066043889 | 729.444360277549 | 1315.56884850025 |
| 115 | 1022.5066043889 | 729.443978791598 | 1315.5692299862 |
| 116 | 1022.5066043889 | 729.443597306143 | 1315.56961147166 |
| 117 | 1022.5066043889 | 729.443215821185 | 1315.56999295661 |
| 118 | 1022.5066043889 | 729.442834336723 | 1315.57037444108 |
| 119 | 1022.5066043889 | 729.442452852758 | 1315.57075592504 |
| 120 | 1022.5066043889 | 729.44207136929 | 1315.57113740851 |
