| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 0.791736231887363 |
| beta | 0.0130819811835399 |
| gamma | 1 |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 13 | 2955 | 2967.17120726496 | -12.171207264957 |
| 14 | 3038 | 3043.40540765421 | -5.40540765421065 |
| 15 | 3069 | 3070.77368367282 | -1.77368367281815 |
| 16 | 3038 | 3038.62395626122 | -0.623956261223611 |
| 17 | 3152 | 3155.37804708463 | -3.37804708462863 |
| 18 | 3079 | 3085.04163636722 | -6.04163636722478 |
| 19 | 2914 | 2983.74212272255 | -69.7421227225523 |
| 20 | 2873 | 2821.78627350572 | 51.2137264942785 |
| 21 | 2873 | 2865.50099764301 | 7.49900235698988 |
| 22 | 2893 | 2862.39119490277 | 30.6088050972276 |
| 23 | 2811 | 2892.18695701075 | -81.186957010751 |
| 24 | 2873 | 2850.12907152565 | 22.8709284743527 |
| 25 | 2821 | 2859.20131452154 | -38.2013145215446 |
| 26 | 2873 | 2915.26033975697 | -42.2603397569706 |
| 27 | 2955 | 2912.84859602066 | 42.1514039793442 |
| 28 | 2986 | 2914.81336049905 | 71.1866395009456 |
| 29 | 3059 | 3087.69066313289 | -28.6906631328943 |
| 30 | 3028 | 2996.33817179405 | 31.6618282059499 |
| 31 | 2842 | 2911.59343039243 | -69.5934303924314 |
| 32 | 2769 | 2774.91764388329 | -5.91764388329193 |
| 33 | 2738 | 2763.67507867414 | -25.675078674145 |
| 34 | 2769 | 2738.14936852008 | 30.8506314799224 |
| 35 | 2718 | 2743.89237127205 | -25.8923712720521 |
| 36 | 2738 | 2766.89619716935 | -28.8961971693457 |
| 37 | 2676 | 2721.33871592172 | -45.3387159217182 |
| 38 | 2780 | 2769.90284869792 | 10.09715130208 |
| 39 | 2831 | 2826.06802177579 | 4.9319782242078 |
| 40 | 2842 | 2803.76999281852 | 38.2300071814816 |
| 41 | 3038 | 2928.57035146526 | 109.429648534738 |
| 42 | 3038 | 2959.38936994797 | 78.6106300520305 |
| 43 | 2780 | 2891.46158297333 | -111.461582973326 |
| 44 | 2718 | 2735.1986625086 | -17.1986625086006 |
| 45 | 2718 | 2711.09294556465 | 6.90705443534716 |
| 46 | 2749 | 2723.65661410148 | 25.3433858985186 |
| 47 | 2614 | 2713.68544424797 | -99.6854442479739 |
| 48 | 2552 | 2677.33834716826 | -125.338347168264 |
| 49 | 2480 | 2550.70015773927 | -70.7001577392725 |
| 50 | 2501 | 2589.16773731071 | -88.1677373107141 |
| 51 | 2594 | 2563.87727945187 | 30.1227205481305 |
| 52 | 2521 | 2566.13931956222 | -45.1393195622231 |
| 53 | 2718 | 2636.57884386639 | 81.421156133606 |
| 54 | 2749 | 2635.3313185103 | 113.668681489704 |
| 55 | 2552 | 2552.46549810811 | -0.465498108108022 |
| 56 | 2480 | 2501.75378252738 | -21.7537825273826 |
| 57 | 2439 | 2477.05481179945 | -38.0548117994458 |
| 58 | 2480 | 2455.38732241498 | 24.6126775850194 |
| 59 | 2366 | 2416.31824149944 | -50.3182414994444 |
| 60 | 2325 | 2411.74528949168 | -86.7452894916751 |
| 61 | 2160 | 2325.47241631677 | -165.472416316766 |
| 62 | 2201 | 2282.71653840266 | -81.7165384026625 |
| 63 | 2211 | 2284.68520044721 | -73.6852004472084 |
| 64 | 2222 | 2185.52505947417 | 36.474940525834 |
| 65 | 2418 | 2344.22549722918 | 73.7745027708211 |
| 66 | 2397 | 2340.84661558625 | 56.1533844137521 |
| 67 | 2160 | 2185.28490792579 | -25.284907925789 |
| 68 | 2056 | 2106.84319314327 | -50.8431931432742 |
| 69 | 2015 | 2051.77088047624 | -36.7708804762356 |
| 70 | 2067 | 2040.2373039981 | 26.7626960018997 |
| 71 | 1870 | 1983.35335425638 | -113.353354256384 |
| 72 | 1736 | 1916.72217974802 | -180.722179748022 |
| 73 | 1488 | 1734.11042031886 | -246.110420318861 |
| 74 | 1509 | 1638.58065212051 | -129.580652120512 |
| 75 | 1509 | 1597.45727072019 | -88.4572707201924 |
| 76 | 1488 | 1502.52198403398 | -14.521984033978 |
| 77 | 1664 | 1621.06432822025 | 42.9356717797521 |
| 78 | 1674 | 1581.72984563465 | 92.2701543653525 |
| 79 | 1467 | 1430.30698576956 | 36.6930142304416 |
| 80 | 1426 | 1388.75904582203 | 37.2409541779707 |
| 81 | 1343 | 1400.41569963992 | -57.4156996399188 |
| 82 | 1457 | 1379.61358833147 | 77.3864116685347 |
| 83 | 1250 | 1327.99848038525 | -77.9984803852547 |
| 84 | 1126 | 1270.06405089914 | -144.064050899141 |
| 85 | 889 | 1097.97304053713 | -208.973040537133 |
| 86 | 940 | 1051.61504133964 | -111.615041339642 |
| 87 | 878 | 1028.96610496569 | -150.966104965694 |
| 88 | 899 | 894.97682656524 | 4.02317343475966 |
| 89 | 1054 | 1035.398948591 | 18.6010514090035 |
| 90 | 1085 | 982.050962141557 | 102.949037858443 |
| 91 | 982 | 822.597374466428 | 159.402625533572 |
| 92 | 971 | 874.677275823699 | 96.3227241763007 |
| 93 | 971 | 910.369574351164 | 60.630425648836 |
| 94 | 1106 | 1009.29793148053 | 96.7020685194655 |
| 95 | 868 | 939.009425641488 | -71.0094256414884 |
| 96 | 713 | 871.316548211562 | -158.316548211562 |
| 97 | 444 | 672.742637478365 | -228.742637478365 |
| 98 | 661 | 629.123221598759 | 31.8767784012415 |
| 99 | 630 | 711.48751627656 | -81.4875162765604 |
| 100 | 641 | 665.10618717959 | -24.1061871795898 |
| 101 | 889 | 786.322551938861 | 102.677448061139 |
| 102 | 858 | 818.007576839506 | 39.9924231604938 |
| 103 | 744 | 620.714173764716 | 123.285826235284 |
| 104 | 796 | 630.935740218085 | 165.064259781915 |
| 105 | 796 | 714.205681141612 | 81.7943188583876 |
| 106 | 982 | 838.207770773122 | 143.792229226878 |
| 107 | 765 | 771.566854102381 | -6.5668541023814 |
| 108 | 641 | 738.672878155473 | -97.6728781554726 |
| 109 | 444 | 576.033964073223 | -132.033964073223 |
| 110 | 703 | 666.849957022076 | 36.1500429779239 |
| 111 | 682 | 732.62220172202 | -50.6222017220196 |
| 112 | 692 | 726.582525922417 | -34.5825259224174 |
| 113 | 909 | 869.75433651745 | 39.2456634825498 |
| 114 | 889 | 841.35161166542 | 47.6483883345797 |
| 115 | 816 | 670.734519928407 | 145.265480071593 |
| 116 | 827 | 710.554570812474 | 116.445429187526 |
| 117 | 878 | 740.981003971078 | 137.018996028922 |
| 118 | 992 | 925.182271882927 | 66.8177281170734 |
| 119 | 816 | 769.050124790319 | 46.9498752096812 |
| 120 | 672 | 762.874117259745 | -90.874117259745 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 121 | 601.853195975555 | 434.083641155172 | 769.622750795938 |
| 122 | 836.990772802851 | 621.921306423021 | 1052.06023918268 |
| 123 | 860.454656388808 | 605.829810123722 | 1115.07950265389 |
| 124 | 902.743665861838 | 613.106870175523 | 1192.38046154815 |
| 125 | 1093.93841061661 | 772.336331021933 | 1415.54049021129 |
| 126 | 1041.07392754419 | 689.712114196409 | 1392.43574089197 |
| 127 | 857.428938934942 | 477.985674078845 | 1236.87220379104 |
| 128 | 779.097244730577 | 372.895153786389 | 1185.29933567476 |
| 129 | 723.2706312109 | 291.379435192351 | 1155.16182722945 |
| 130 | 784.605733717666 | 327.907989286706 | 1241.30347814863 |
| 131 | 570.978872039441 | 90.2142192327124 | 1051.74352484617 |
| 132 | 497.985976500139 | -6.21786030541546 | 1002.18981330569 |
