Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
Parameter | Value |
alpha | 0.913882252944706 |
beta | 0.0156442872297025 |
gamma | 1 |
Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
13 | 0.41 | 0.409910561495626 | 8.94385043740398e-05 |
14 | 0.41 | 0.41012333698141 | -0.000123336981409539 |
15 | 0.41 | 0.410139897373554 | -0.000139897373553799 |
16 | 0.41 | 0.409722938299467 | 0.000277061700532488 |
17 | 0.41 | 0.409276230044584 | 0.000723769955416176 |
18 | 0.41 | 0.409249580559903 | 0.000750419440096961 |
19 | 0.41 | 0.412170784068899 | -0.00217078406889887 |
20 | 0.41 | 0.410308310797649 | -0.000308310797648648 |
21 | 0.41 | 0.410143510864863 | -0.000143510864863083 |
22 | 0.42 | 0.410127266885869 | 0.0098727331141305 |
23 | 0.42 | 0.419405841345727 | 0.00059415865427298 |
24 | 0.42 | 0.420213385982037 | -0.000213385982037462 |
25 | 0.42 | 0.42028777462779 | -0.000287774627789616 |
26 | 0.42 | 0.420263393099985 | -0.000263393099985076 |
27 | 0.42 | 0.420274837118587 | -0.000274837118586724 |
28 | 0.42 | 0.419883452885855 | 0.000116547114144716 |
29 | 0.42 | 0.419428887912329 | 0.000571112087671355 |
30 | 0.42 | 0.419362198615303 | 0.000637801384696601 |
31 | 0.42 | 0.422088671475199 | -0.00208867147519926 |
32 | 0.42 | 0.420583058047971 | -0.000583058047971208 |
33 | 0.42 | 0.420295245913563 | -0.000295245913562947 |
34 | 0.42 | 0.421116845638211 | -0.00111684563821135 |
35 | 0.42 | 0.41950722060541 | 0.000492779394590026 |
36 | 0.43 | 0.420105409046739 | 0.00989459095326095 |
37 | 0.43 | 0.42950826132353 | 0.000491738676469455 |
38 | 0.44 | 0.430306447060416 | 0.00969355293958424 |
39 | 0.44 | 0.439667101644497 | 0.000332898355502542 |
40 | 0.44 | 0.440107206085745 | -0.000107206085745326 |
41 | 0.44 | 0.439706075963128 | 0.000293924036872228 |
42 | 0.44 | 0.43960290281348 | 0.000397097186520146 |
43 | 0.44 | 0.442200424281174 | -0.00220042428117367 |
44 | 0.44 | 0.440983673304023 | -0.000983673304022936 |
45 | 0.44 | 0.440597952773114 | -0.000597952773114085 |
46 | 0.44 | 0.441347497928141 | -0.00134749792814121 |
47 | 0.44 | 0.439868014508225 | 0.000131985491775288 |
48 | 0.44 | 0.441191778795396 | -0.00119177879539639 |
49 | 0.43 | 0.439704532677982 | -0.00970453267798227 |
50 | 0.44 | 0.431886015934066 | 0.00811398406593383 |
51 | 0.44 | 0.438900026623818 | 0.00109997337618228 |
52 | 0.46 | 0.439916131014449 | 0.0200838689855511 |
53 | 0.46 | 0.458170731405145 | 0.00182926859485477 |
54 | 0.46 | 0.459662818603304 | 0.000337181396695918 |
55 | 0.46 | 0.46227131537547 | -0.00227131537546976 |
56 | 0.46 | 0.461335037728099 | -0.00133503772809945 |
57 | 0.45 | 0.460881477536563 | -0.0108814775365635 |
58 | 0.45 | 0.452257087949292 | -0.00225708794929202 |
59 | 0.46 | 0.450117386618263 | 0.0098826133817374 |
60 | 0.46 | 0.460462176689568 | -0.000462176689567939 |
61 | 0.46 | 0.459025685845696 | 0.00097431415430388 |
62 | 0.47 | 0.463008216742976 | 0.00699178325702354 |
63 | 0.47 | 0.46864117293212 | 0.00135882706787982 |
64 | 0.47 | 0.471885428322728 | -0.00188542832272848 |
65 | 0.47 | 0.468469817295679 | 0.00153018270432076 |
66 | 0.47 | 0.469565730172129 | 0.000434269827870926 |
67 | 0.47 | 0.472095823205018 | -0.0020958232050185 |
68 | 0.47 | 0.471443579426219 | -0.00144357942621898 |
69 | 0.47 | 0.470061621557005 | -6.16215570045653e-05 |
70 | 0.47 | 0.472320438823448 | -0.00232043882344773 |
71 | 0.47 | 0.471356374901362 | -0.00135637490136215 |
72 | 0.47 | 0.470557974629451 | -0.000557974629451452 |
Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
73 | 0.469146409424026 | 0.460461490249579 | 0.477831328598473 |
74 | 0.472815556706152 | 0.460930854673596 | 0.484700258738707 |
75 | 0.471470171555323 | 0.457077526720887 | 0.485862816389758 |
76 | 0.473084620566732 | 0.456441250379226 | 0.489727990754237 |
77 | 0.471588119270883 | 0.452995961851256 | 0.490180276690509 |
78 | 0.471082019132024 | 0.450657583157576 | 0.491506455106472 |
79 | 0.472887490167706 | 0.450651006341395 | 0.495123973994017 |
80 | 0.474128047315862 | 0.450186775870378 | 0.498069318761345 |
81 | 0.474117356122735 | 0.448596850804476 | 0.499637861440995 |
82 | 0.476188838613987 | 0.449038443503376 | 0.503339233724598 |
83 | 0.477408009088578 | 0.448716577681789 | 0.506099440495366 |
84 | 0.477907428000934 | -12.7621810705055 | 13.7179959265073 |