Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
Parameter | Value |
alpha | 0.839082605513062 |
beta | 0 |
gamma | 1 |
Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
13 | 0.96 | 0.960080128205128 | -8.01282051284824e-05 |
14 | 0.96 | 0.96018771919682 | -0.000187719196819036 |
15 | 0.96 | 0.960621699125539 | -0.00062169912553911 |
16 | 0.96 | 0.960691534044928 | -0.000691534044928499 |
17 | 0.96 | 0.960286105031534 | -0.000286105031534145 |
18 | 0.95 | 0.949804197784383 | 0.000195802215617435 |
19 | 0.95 | 0.94805998385912 | 0.00194001614087991 |
20 | 0.95 | 0.959029309498839 | -0.00902930949883884 |
21 | 0.95 | 0.950377798133395 | -0.00037779813339478 |
22 | 0.95 | 0.94940228613276 | 0.000597713867240279 |
23 | 0.95 | 0.939661975949994 | 0.0103380240500064 |
24 | 0.95 | 0.948511257280555 | 0.00148874271944510 |
25 | 0.95 | 0.959922366553357 | -0.00992236655335677 |
26 | 0.95 | 0.951754193285682 | -0.00175419328568227 |
27 | 0.95 | 0.95080393713506 | -0.000803937135060995 |
28 | 0.96 | 0.950709621657325 | 0.0092903783426751 |
29 | 0.96 | 0.95874508227861 | 0.00125491772139119 |
30 | 0.96 | 0.949633767676733 | 0.0103662323232674 |
31 | 0.97 | 0.956704059105667 | 0.0132959408943334 |
32 | 0.97 | 0.97543678837430 | -0.00543678837430095 |
33 | 0.97 | 0.971191877661696 | -0.00119187766169615 |
34 | 0.96 | 0.969690262538792 | -0.00969026253879213 |
35 | 0.95 | 0.9528848756439 | -0.00288487564390072 |
36 | 0.95 | 0.949215048552065 | 0.000784951447935223 |
37 | 0.95 | 0.958199372838646 | -0.0081993728386458 |
38 | 0.95 | 0.952791334786346 | -0.00279133478634563 |
39 | 0.95 | 0.951123743986915 | -0.00112374398691517 |
40 | 0.95 | 0.95238543508847 | -0.00238543508847089 |
41 | 0.95 | 0.949330878367785 | 0.000669121632214997 |
42 | 0.95 | 0.941194201463188 | 0.00880579853681185 |
43 | 0.95 | 0.947426601114714 | 0.00257339888528552 |
44 | 0.95 | 0.954147809911136 | -0.00414780991113584 |
45 | 0.95 | 0.951667538577556 | -0.00166753857755586 |
46 | 0.95 | 0.948399266702262 | 0.00160073329773802 |
47 | 0.94 | 0.942163063140325 | -0.00216306314032488 |
48 | 0.94 | 0.939689435378517 | 0.000310564621482934 |
49 | 0.94 | 0.946829975875315 | -0.00682997587531498 |
50 | 0.93 | 0.94344122238765 | -0.0134412223876503 |
51 | 0.93 | 0.93310584051781 | -0.0031058405178106 |
52 | 0.93 | 0.932501360853135 | -0.00250136085313446 |
53 | 0.93 | 0.929841064148594 | 0.000158935851406139 |
54 | 0.92 | 0.92258563207701 | -0.00258563207700990 |
55 | 0.93 | 0.918256778935244 | 0.0117432210647556 |
Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
56 | 0.931590666610784 | 0.920364779892464 | 0.942816553329105 |
57 | 0.932989869225233 | 0.918335637728013 | 0.947644100722454 |
58 | 0.931646721759036 | 0.914226260544254 | 0.949067182973817 |
59 | 0.923461710414709 | 0.903657709882057 | 0.94326571094736 |
60 | 0.923201121042935 | 0.901271132322946 | 0.945131109762924 |
61 | 0.928932034995985 | 0.90506468546948 | 0.952799384522492 |
62 | 0.930210330898296 | 0.904551485608961 | 0.95586917618763 |
63 | 0.932816387652288 | 0.905483215320055 | 0.960149559984521 |
64 | 0.934915236034265 | 0.906004541163592 | 0.963825930904937 |
65 | 0.934781875725957 | 0.904375392107053 | 0.965188359344862 |
66 | 0.926951434626033 | 0.895119371949727 | 0.958783497302339 |
67 | 0.927097902097902 | 0.893901423634218 | 0.960294380561586 |