| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 0.137854413836711 |
| beta | 0.00578274385342074 |
| gamma | 0.233989636519689 |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 13 | 3458 | 3422.40518162393 | 35.5948183760665 |
| 14 | 3024 | 2998.60517426114 | 25.3948257388574 |
| 15 | 3100 | 3080.79429705722 | 19.2057029427774 |
| 16 | 2904 | 2882.68719896488 | 21.3128010351197 |
| 17 | 3056 | 3048.63756371472 | 7.36243628527927 |
| 18 | 2771 | 2782.37901160563 | -11.3790116056325 |
| 19 | 2897 | 2951.98613043277 | -54.9861304327719 |
| 20 | 2772 | 2842.95464845602 | -70.954648456016 |
| 21 | 2857 | 2808.04027239026 | 48.9597276097415 |
| 22 | 3020 | 2893.61231857154 | 126.387681428457 |
| 23 | 2648 | 2969.37556993068 | -321.375569930676 |
| 24 | 2364 | 2364.15648759912 | -0.156487599118918 |
| 25 | 3194 | 3441.44106969978 | -247.441069699777 |
| 26 | 3013 | 2976.20079574247 | 36.7992042575265 |
| 27 | 2560 | 3058.35775894735 | -498.357758947352 |
| 28 | 3074 | 2788.55898274627 | 285.441017253727 |
| 29 | 2746 | 2987.54855207437 | -241.548552074371 |
| 30 | 2846 | 2682.43953945554 | 163.560460544459 |
| 31 | 3184 | 2866.74908255775 | 317.250917442254 |
| 32 | 2354 | 2805.49072674787 | -451.490726747872 |
| 33 | 3080 | 2741.68510612475 | 338.314893875249 |
| 34 | 2963 | 2882.37312077511 | 80.626879224892 |
| 35 | 2430 | 2861.07017885997 | -431.070178859974 |
| 36 | 2296 | 2305.01311469469 | -9.01311469469147 |
| 37 | 2416 | 3330.66759057353 | -914.66759057353 |
| 38 | 2647 | 2829.73229124656 | -182.732291246560 |
| 39 | 2789 | 2772.43638769641 | 16.5636123035883 |
| 40 | 2685 | 2730.91987024959 | -45.9198702495883 |
| 41 | 2666 | 2776.83436164114 | -110.834361641138 |
| 42 | 2882 | 2570.48872899831 | 311.511271001694 |
| 43 | 2953 | 2805.33628640245 | 147.663713597548 |
| 44 | 2127 | 2564.62161996628 | -437.621619966281 |
| 45 | 2563 | 2661.07162863300 | -98.0716286329962 |
| 46 | 3061 | 2688.28349738175 | 372.716502618251 |
| 47 | 2809 | 2602.91886874011 | 206.081131259893 |
| 48 | 2861 | 2219.24546054001 | 641.754539459988 |
| 49 | 2781 | 3151.83603455409 | -370.836034554090 |
| 50 | 2555 | 2873.8848649455 | -318.884864945500 |
| 51 | 3206 | 2838.27472611076 | 367.725273889239 |
| 52 | 2570 | 2833.09275401697 | -263.092754016972 |
| 53 | 2410 | 2836.33082494429 | -426.330824944294 |
| 54 | 3195 | 2671.79943704686 | 523.200562953137 |
| 55 | 2736 | 2903.0502878742 | -167.050287874201 |
| 56 | 2743 | 2500.90305204697 | 242.096947953030 |
| 57 | 2934 | 2760.11919310883 | 173.880806891166 |
| 58 | 2668 | 2920.57670829879 | -252.57670829879 |
| 59 | 2907 | 2715.68054441769 | 191.319455582312 |
| 60 | 2866 | 2418.13393696478 | 447.866063035221 |
| 61 | 2983 | 3119.84049864061 | -136.840498640615 |
| 62 | 2878 | 2884.93089264961 | -6.93089264961054 |
| 63 | 3225 | 3031.3896562673 | 193.610343732701 |
| 64 | 2515 | 2875.36213191657 | -360.362131916567 |
| 65 | 3193 | 2832.59697759902 | 360.403022400985 |
| 66 | 2663 | 2969.03574533904 | -306.035745339044 |
| 67 | 2908 | 2947.02867794113 | -39.0286779411263 |
| 68 | 2896 | 2645.47282865107 | 250.527171348928 |
| 69 | 2853 | 2892.50086685623 | -39.5008668562332 |
| 70 | 3028 | 2937.75327268027 | 90.2467273197299 |
| 71 | 3053 | 2870.17979355190 | 182.820206448097 |
| 72 | 2455 | 2623.72309981415 | -168.723099814146 |
| 73 | 3401 | 3122.49152914244 | 278.50847085756 |
| 74 | 2969 | 2971.39388162149 | -2.39388162148953 |
| 75 | 3243 | 3159.28471881766 | 83.7152811823435 |
| 76 | 2849 | 2876.61628131111 | -27.6162813111146 |
| 77 | 3296 | 3025.65228971797 | 270.347710282028 |
| 78 | 3121 | 3015.69043134138 | 105.309568658622 |
| 79 | 3194 | 3105.03789434987 | 88.9621056501337 |
| 80 | 3023 | 2880.42577044919 | 142.574229550809 |
| 81 | 2984 | 3054.86431943051 | -70.86431943051 |
| 82 | 3525 | 3122.74308615555 | 402.256913844450 |
| 83 | 3116 | 3117.8810162738 | -1.88101627379910 |
| 84 | 2383 | 2775.92156185318 | -392.921561853182 |
| 85 | 3294 | 3334.70299387297 | -40.702993872972 |
| 86 | 2882 | 3083.37718221263 | -201.377182212630 |
| 87 | 2820 | 3261.49359608024 | -441.493596080236 |
| 88 | 2583 | 2883.8300793168 | -300.830079316801 |
| 89 | 2803 | 3054.96031689203 | -251.960316892034 |
| 90 | 2767 | 2938.93470629782 | -171.93470629782 |
| 91 | 2945 | 2985.77636065501 | -40.7763606550143 |
| 92 | 2716 | 2753.00249700534 | -37.0024970053441 |
| 93 | 2644 | 2858.39275895808 | -214.392758958081 |
| 94 | 2956 | 3000.58009200437 | -44.5800920043748 |
| 95 | 2598 | 2850.88571684403 | -252.885716844031 |
| 96 | 2171 | 2393.53238609267 | -222.532386092675 |
| 97 | 2994 | 3045.08676700320 | -51.0867670032048 |
| 98 | 2645 | 2758.13781534055 | -113.137815340552 |
| 99 | 2724 | 2898.27093773928 | -174.270937739278 |
| 100 | 2550 | 2584.32671806898 | -34.3267180689845 |
| 101 | 2707 | 2800.77170315402 | -93.7717031540164 |
| 102 | 2679 | 2721.54044517074 | -42.5404451707391 |
| 103 | 2878 | 2811.62534044241 | 66.3746595575903 |
| 104 | 2307 | 2593.41613650956 | -286.416136509562 |
| 105 | 2496 | 2627.47141273665 | -131.471412736649 |
| 106 | 2637 | 2814.24604208603 | -177.246042086033 |
| 107 | 2436 | 2603.03455725743 | -167.034557257429 |
| 108 | 2426 | 2162.50152212482 | 263.498477875175 |
| 109 | 2607 | 2914.89317901695 | -307.893179016946 |
| 110 | 2533 | 2579.06937186539 | -46.0693718653852 |
| 111 | 2888 | 2715.21385861468 | 172.786141385321 |
| 112 | 2520 | 2476.71930043956 | 43.2806995604383 |
| 113 | 2229 | 2691.30757987716 | -462.307579877164 |
| 114 | 2804 | 2570.75007086764 | 233.249929132360 |
| 115 | 2661 | 2720.18852953502 | -59.1885295350189 |
| 116 | 2547 | 2412.76305513361 | 134.236944866393 |
| 117 | 2509 | 2535.66279636221 | -26.6627963622095 |
| 118 | 2465 | 2727.33314429513 | -262.333144295130 |
| 119 | 2629 | 2506.06583979411 | 122.934160205891 |
| 120 | 2706 | 2192.20402442006 | 513.795975579937 |
| 121 | 2666 | 2863.87617318974 | -197.876173189741 |
| 122 | 2432 | 2596.16944140611 | -164.169441406112 |
| 123 | 2836 | 2760.22178266141 | 75.7782173385922 |
| 124 | 2888 | 2482.18944523287 | 405.810554767129 |
| 125 | 2566 | 2645.00988814034 | -79.0098881403383 |
| 126 | 2802 | 2718.16393883837 | 83.8360611616349 |
| 127 | 2611 | 2788.44668684973 | -177.446686849731 |
| 128 | 2683 | 2504.08103447305 | 178.918965526947 |
| 129 | 2675 | 2601.05910430652 | 73.9408956934803 |
| 130 | 2434 | 2759.51332030403 | -325.513320304027 |
| 131 | 2693 | 2607.66488658061 | 85.3351134193904 |
| 132 | 2619 | 2367.84703867423 | 251.152961325766 |
| 133 | 2903 | 2859.9128476899 | 43.0871523101023 |
| 134 | 2550 | 2632.58383963681 | -82.5838396368113 |
| 135 | 2900 | 2856.71364829638 | 43.2863517036203 |
| 136 | 2456 | 2641.17985851695 | -185.179858516947 |
| 137 | 2912 | 2624.65343156555 | 287.346568434448 |
| 138 | 2883 | 2781.38292484963 | 101.617075150371 |
| 139 | 2464 | 2801.64181612116 | -337.641816121165 |
| 140 | 2655 | 2567.18995275480 | 87.8100472452034 |
| 141 | 2447 | 2630.46470664228 | -183.464706642280 |
| 142 | 2592 | 2672.68008166223 | -80.6800816622299 |
| 143 | 2698 | 2637.48871502547 | 60.5112849745274 |
| 144 | 2274 | 2427.703940712 | -153.703940712002 |
| 145 | 2901 | 2821.66612296754 | 79.3338770324572 |
| 146 | 2397 | 2573.69222964465 | -176.692229644645 |
| 147 | 3004 | 2809.87629489622 | 194.123705103777 |
| 148 | 2614 | 2568.80246543478 | 45.1975345652249 |
| 149 | 2882 | 2679.29803629241 | 202.701963707590 |
| 150 | 2671 | 2786.76284915367 | -115.762849153666 |
| 151 | 2761 | 2688.14034050735 | 72.8596594926476 |
| 152 | 2806 | 2596.13135090133 | 209.86864909867 |
| 153 | 2414 | 2621.63031466415 | -207.630314664154 |
| 154 | 2673 | 2681.35315273477 | -8.35315273476772 |
| 155 | 2748 | 2684.77674091374 | 63.2232590862577 |
| 156 | 2112 | 2432.31506942704 | -320.315069427041 |
| 157 | 2903 | 2850.35135629665 | 52.6486437033468 |
| 158 | 2633 | 2547.05929964404 | 85.9407003559568 |
| 159 | 2684 | 2894.47316074841 | -210.473160748406 |
| 160 | 2861 | 2567.47681661262 | 293.523183387385 |
| 161 | 2504 | 2744.07328749078 | -240.073287490779 |
| 162 | 2708 | 2725.99595467241 | -17.9959546724108 |
| 163 | 2961 | 2678.72167222405 | 282.278327775951 |
| 164 | 2535 | 2643.2073854769 | -108.207385476902 |
| 165 | 2688 | 2540.3673898731 | 147.632610126898 |
| 166 | 2699 | 2689.28140326720 | 9.71859673279778 |
| 167 | 2469 | 2709.66580900261 | -240.665809002614 |
| 168 | 2585 | 2337.72725984697 | 247.272740153027 |
| 169 | 2582 | 2909.48759748182 | -327.487597481824 |
| 170 | 2480 | 2560.44558509239 | -80.4455850923878 |
| 171 | 2709 | 2824.93061849702 | -115.930618497020 |
| 172 | 2441 | 2612.52026222978 | -171.520262229780 |
| 173 | 2182 | 2616.87375213901 | -434.873752139014 |
| 174 | 2585 | 2616.09677912458 | -31.0967791245835 |
| 175 | 2881 | 2626.93542578866 | 254.064574211342 |
| 176 | 2422 | 2508.07901519761 | -86.0790151976094 |
| 177 | 2690 | 2459.23972970158 | 230.760270298420 |
| 178 | 2659 | 2591.19651239118 | 67.8034876088223 |
| 179 | 2535 | 2568.52873052359 | -33.5287305235893 |
| 180 | 2613 | 2323.19482294785 | 289.805177052150 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 181 | 2784.52065649376 | 2326.3872135876 | 3242.65409939993 |
| 182 | 2530.37229437991 | 2067.85617560233 | 2992.8884131575 |
| 183 | 2798.76420968343 | 2331.85672472334 | 3265.67169464353 |
| 184 | 2591.18915497455 | 2119.88157343289 | 3062.49673651621 |
| 185 | 2566.26510468715 | 2090.54865803925 | 3041.98155133505 |
| 186 | 2707.44402167060 | 2227.30990514554 | 3187.57813819565 |
| 187 | 2780.67220952523 | 2296.11158390634 | 3265.23283514413 |
| 188 | 2558.54732977307 | 2069.55132312321 | 3047.54333642293 |
| 189 | 2585.93370368901 | 2092.49341300445 | 3079.37399437356 |
| 190 | 2653.46373136613 | 2155.57022416224 | 3151.35723857002 |
| 191 | 2601.21117131641 | 2098.85548714845 | 3103.56685548436 |
| 192 | 2425.95753515185 | 1919.13068707391 | 2932.78438322979 |
