| Structural Time Series Model | |||||
| t | Observed | Level | Slope | Seasonal | Stand. Residuals |
| 1 | 37 | 37 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | 30 | 34.0671216941213 | -0.315647564790337 | -0.31564756420223 | -0.291558207717331 |
| 3 | 47 | 39.2754159647873 | 0.113018493807602 | 0.113018493807602 | 0.578107943214642 |
| 4 | 35 | 37.5988237864005 | 0.00609133324206647 | 0.00609133324206532 | -0.194826675503084 |
| 5 | 30 | 34.6320001040144 | -0.138701975676196 | -0.138701975676196 | -0.332720022217105 |
| 6 | 43 | 37.8293262532751 | 0.000285907581016487 | 0.000285907581015099 | 0.380390337897555 |
| 7 | 82 | 54.7345055002265 | 0.62635014152385 | 0.626350141523854 | 1.95163954894543 |
| 8 | 40 | 49.2755246002829 | 0.420161822917526 | 0.420161822917527 | -0.708354793270166 |
| 9 | 47 | 48.5140071337029 | 0.382767179877118 | 0.382767179877118 | -0.138315627892971 |
| 10 | 19 | 37.4418734766951 | 0.0393381287320684 | 0.0393381287320691 | -1.34590727617731 |
| 11 | 52 | 42.9493225713565 | 0.196172304749665 | 0.196172304749665 | 0.644218893332828 |
| 12 | 136 | 78.0933079792282 | 1.16141281737792 | 1.16141281737792 | 4.12555501966769 |
| 13 | 80 | 82.405037674586 | 0.803640669539752 | -8.84004735984471 | 0.530702819484212 |
| 14 | 42 | 65.0516229548378 | 0.0542762836813006 | 0.0542762800922897 | -1.77265834157425 |
| 15 | 54 | 60.6291616810058 | -0.0882405583830091 | -0.088240558383007 | -0.486105172608378 |
| 16 | 66 | 62.6908790939866 | -0.0332794524032328 | -0.0332794524032380 | 0.244988724128414 |
| 17 | 81 | 69.6599622576009 | 0.117309882915424 | 0.117309882915424 | 0.817045414994713 |
| 18 | 63 | 67.1730843092634 | 0.0681303204142184 | 0.0681303204142267 | -0.307662362506208 |
| 19 | 137 | 93.4363647150941 | 0.517998469675756 | 0.517998469675762 | 3.11621286205938 |
| 20 | 72 | 85.5313411834837 | 0.382951410803086 | 0.382951410803083 | -1.00607462956371 |
| 21 | 107 | 93.6607944645395 | 0.501082284767511 | 0.501082284767512 | 0.927555972162997 |
| 22 | 58 | 80.4581507083647 | 0.299773952706316 | 0.299773952706319 | -1.64344569595362 |
| 23 | 36 | 63.9282717919332 | 0.0595876339530189 | 0.0595876339530240 | -2.02043376961061 |
| 24 | 52 | 59.4901342371581 | -0.00312292677736641 | -0.00312292677736388 | -0.540352334075333 |
| 25 | 79 | 65.1690426899526 | -0.296953819164317 | 3.26649201321126 | 0.816165646442566 |
| 26 | 77 | 69.9327223130034 | -0.163312320080150 | -0.163312322518920 | 0.539272135660072 |
| 27 | 54 | 63.696644480193 | -0.286949059374766 | -0.286949059374757 | -0.689461813374959 |
| 28 | 84 | 71.36192367388 | -0.156425160934276 | -0.156425160934279 | 0.929873009781318 |
| 29 | 48 | 62.5185716246564 | -0.277014316578656 | -0.277014316578658 | -1.03081504793801 |
| 30 | 96 | 74.9978916868859 | -0.120642791282769 | -0.120642791282758 | 1.52551438746289 |
| 31 | 83 | 77.957327068086 | -0.0861183040178078 | -0.0861183040177992 | 0.369943849126872 |
| 32 | 66 | 73.475654327657 | -0.132359631914891 | -0.132359631914895 | -0.529282107445417 |
| 33 | 61 | 68.7937954814648 | -0.178114250777881 | -0.178114250777882 | -0.548661028790547 |
| 34 | 53 | 62.8678560875564 | -0.234074404504519 | -0.234074404504517 | -0.693846020030631 |
| 35 | 30 | 50.5756706788763 | -0.348672470763643 | -0.348672470763633 | -1.45650350855119 |
| 36 | 74 | 59.201726585533 | -0.264956524801259 | -0.264956524801255 | 1.08452121249381 |
| 37 | 69 | 61.1893369280218 | -0.340368376575945 | 3.74405214385024 | 0.306764690482265 |
| 38 | 59 | 60.2507129540982 | -0.351984696680386 | -0.351984698212666 | -0.066248576140395 |
| 39 | 42 | 53.1654926142638 | -0.452751478680410 | -0.452751478680399 | -0.780052519204419 |
| 40 | 65 | 57.5263519187164 | -0.394566544141757 | -0.394566544141754 | 0.569637095178366 |
| 41 | 70 | 62.1043985930574 | -0.343602933535737 | -0.343602933535741 | 0.594751043722194 |
| 42 | 100 | 76.1679614815683 | -0.212865165055240 | -0.212865165055235 | 1.73294071933137 |
| 43 | 63 | 71.2077381412589 | -0.252361260117054 | -0.252361260117045 | -0.572833479964084 |
| 44 | 105 | 83.7167245568239 | -0.152461310528321 | -0.152461310528320 | 1.54266792276289 |
| 45 | 82 | 83.0393651242567 | -0.156399367687836 | -0.156399367687836 | -0.0635234520492033 |
| 46 | 81 | 82.2413505760636 | -0.161070698414878 | -0.161070698414877 | -0.0777025118569286 |
| 47 | 75 | 79.5098004563027 | -0.179382579357404 | -0.179382579357389 | -0.311435709355405 |
| 48 | 102 | 87.8170695670264 | -0.119905104111077 | -0.119905104111073 | 1.02853626661158 |
| 49 | 121 | 98.1776365906012 | -0.379305767555715 | 4.17236344605525 | 1.38956946142677 |
| 50 | 98 | 98.0252471038806 | -0.375822002172828 | -0.3758220051039 | 0.0256770062449916 |
| 51 | 76 | 89.551338558132 | -0.471632224648908 | -0.471632224648893 | -0.949062463098624 |
| 52 | 77 | 84.7142848944818 | -0.513393193667197 | -0.513393193667215 | -0.520173830686708 |
| 53 | 63 | 76.4680432022279 | -0.576207605766888 | -0.576207605766901 | -0.929151736810298 |
| 54 | 37 | 61.6154720271693 | -0.679047834469404 | -0.67904783446939 | -1.72303017901997 |
| 55 | 35 | 51.5422352461928 | -0.741186105626393 | -0.741186105626385 | -1.13661230541679 |
| 56 | 23 | 40.7467671380797 | -0.803858613012813 | -0.803858613012816 | -1.21823775261747 |
| 57 | 40 | 40.262604186947 | -0.801945924159431 | -0.80194592415943 | 0.0387700424106709 |
| 58 | 29 | 35.8754559445217 | -0.822791267543264 | -0.822791267543263 | -0.435018971173871 |
| 59 | 37 | 36.0806574502545 | -0.816934544693994 | -0.816934544693976 | 0.124777017289439 |
| 60 | 51 | 41.4056556852203 | -0.782462054720102 | -0.782462054720095 | 0.745672735826488 |
| 61 | 20 | 30.8154211638528 | -0.589907706695399 | 6.4889847728376 | -1.27958777101575 |
| 62 | 28 | 29.5929232536214 | -0.597938619671958 | -0.597938618900505 | -0.0725809712450768 |
| 63 | 13 | 23.1643585852979 | -0.654976183051592 | -0.654976183051577 | -0.688446400776884 |
| 64 | 22 | 22.5639684032535 | -0.654544118317453 | -0.654544118317453 | 0.00653360043588675 |
| 65 | 25 | 23.3065448214487 | -0.645144805925538 | -0.645144805925545 | 0.168378293764226 |
| 66 | 13 | 19.3067416834582 | -0.665179475688209 | -0.665179475688207 | -0.40577759389535 |
| 67 | 16 | 17.9072892961621 | -0.669210268870825 | -0.669210268870812 | -0.0889989704429047 |
| 68 | 13 | 15.9132811790094 | -0.676070590934731 | -0.676070590934732 | -0.160765922038189 |
| 69 | 16 | 15.7710589955398 | -0.673414637318863 | -0.673414637318866 | 0.0648296106054625 |
| 70 | 17 | 16.0530142911655 | -0.668791046538752 | -0.668791046538751 | 0.116069874743964 |
| 71 | 9 | 13.2647473091235 | -0.678851458114668 | -0.678851458114651 | -0.257571998873056 |
| 72 | 17 | 14.4742974934467 | -0.670012753262825 | -0.670012753262816 | 0.229532537273078 |
| 73 | 25 | 15.108446727048 | -0.691229840461706 | 7.60352824346882 | 0.168327091104721 |
| 74 | 14 | 14.5224697436582 | -0.690090782816285 | -0.690090781198667 | 0.0121934073330585 |
| 75 | 8 | 11.8921815668287 | -0.706269006103503 | -0.706269006103486 | -0.230287521451263 |
| 76 | 7 | 9.88412868911363 | -0.715056437033845 | -0.715056437033845 | -0.156307444342482 |
| 77 | 10 | 9.74499471328324 | -0.711749866376998 | -0.711749866377005 | 0.0695562316457681 |
| 78 | 7 | 8.54205488396047 | -0.714255113106516 | -0.714255113106513 | -0.0595073600282687 |
| 79 | 10 | 8.89933859595211 | -0.709227947786835 | -0.709227947786822 | 0.130042020223480 |
| 80 | 3 | 6.52786932164335 | -0.716589688967188 | -0.71658968896719 | -0.201933830992266 |
