| Multiple Linear Regression - Estimated Regression Equation |
| Y[t] = + 19301.6755555556 + 2240.75639730639M1[t] + 4454.02875420874M2[t] + 6371.21020202022M3[t] + 6777.39164983165M4[t] + 7917.84582491583M5[t] + 8710.93636363636M6[t] + 7509.39053872055M7[t] + 7557.39016835017M8[t] + 5687.29888888889M9[t] + 3467.63710437711M10[t] + 1939.01855218855M11[t] + 131.818552188552t + e[t] |
| Multiple Linear Regression - Ordinary Least Squares | |||||
| Variable | Parameter | S.D. | T-STAT H0: parameter = 0 | 2-tail p-value | 1-tail p-value |
| (Intercept) | 19301.6755555556 | 2068.547608 | 9.331 | 0 | 0 |
| M1 | 2240.75639730639 | 2563.01167 | 0.8743 | 0.383779 | 0.19189 |
| M2 | 4454.02875420874 | 2562.672873 | 1.738 | 0.084857 | 0.042429 |
| M3 | 6371.21020202022 | 2562.409334 | 2.4864 | 0.014327 | 0.007164 |
| M4 | 6777.39164983165 | 2562.221076 | 2.6451 | 0.009298 | 0.004649 |
| M5 | 7917.84582491583 | 2562.108114 | 3.0904 | 0.002503 | 0.001252 |
| M6 | 8710.93636363636 | 2562.070459 | 3.4 | 0.000925 | 0.000462 |
| M7 | 7509.39053872055 | 2562.108114 | 2.9309 | 0.004071 | 0.002036 |
| M8 | 7557.39016835017 | 2562.221076 | 2.9495 | 0.00385 | 0.001925 |
| M9 | 5687.29888888889 | 2562.409334 | 2.2195 | 0.028397 | 0.014198 |
| M10 | 3467.63710437711 | 2622.509873 | 1.3223 | 0.188683 | 0.094342 |
| M11 | 1939.01855218855 | 2622.399508 | 0.7394 | 0.461154 | 0.230577 |
| t | 131.818552188552 | 13.890693 | 9.4897 | 0 | 0 |
| Multiple Linear Regression - Regression Statistics | |
| Multiple R | 0.71058290556023 |
| R-squared | 0.504928065674419 |
| Adjusted R-squared | 0.453713727640738 |
| F-TEST (value) | 9.85911533880132 |
| F-TEST (DF numerator) | 12 |
| F-TEST (DF denominator) | 116 |
| p-value | 4.90607554581857e-13 |
| Multiple Linear Regression - Residual Statistics | |
| Residual Standard Deviation | 5863.78129990337 |
| Sum Squared Residuals | 3988536011.43919 |
| Multiple Linear Regression - Actuals, Interpolation, and Residuals | |||
| Time or Index | Actuals | Interpolation Forecast | Residuals Prediction Error |
| 1 | 27951 | 21674.2505050506 | 6276.7494949494 |
| 2 | 29781 | 24019.3414141414 | 5761.65858585858 |
| 3 | 32914 | 26068.3414141414 | 6845.65858585862 |
| 4 | 33488 | 26606.3414141414 | 6881.65858585857 |
| 5 | 35652 | 27878.6141414141 | 7773.38585858585 |
| 6 | 36488 | 28803.5232323233 | 7684.47676767675 |
| 7 | 35387 | 27733.7959595959 | 7653.20404040405 |
| 8 | 35676 | 27913.6141414142 | 7762.38585858584 |
| 9 | 34844 | 26175.3414141414 | 8668.65858585859 |
| 10 | 32447 | 24087.4981818182 | 8359.50181818182 |
| 11 | 31068 | 22690.6981818182 | 8377.30181818182 |
| 12 | 29010 | 20883.4981818182 | 8126.50181818182 |
| 13 | 29812 | 23256.0731313131 | 6555.92686868692 |
| 14 | 30951 | 25601.1640404040 | 5349.83595959596 |
| 15 | 32974 | 27650.1640404040 | 5323.83595959596 |
| 16 | 32936 | 28188.1640404040 | 4747.83595959597 |
| 17 | 34012 | 29460.4367676768 | 4551.56323232323 |
| 18 | 32946 | 30385.3458585859 | 2560.65414141414 |
| 19 | 31948 | 29315.6185858586 | 2632.38141414141 |
| 20 | 30599 | 29495.4367676768 | 1103.56323232324 |
| 21 | 27691 | 27757.1640404040 | -66.1640404040355 |
| 22 | 25073 | 25669.3208080808 | -596.320808080806 |
| 23 | 23406 | 24272.5208080808 | -866.52080808081 |
| 24 | 22248 | 22465.3208080808 | -217.320808080808 |
| 25 | 22896 | 24837.8957575757 | -1941.89575757575 |
| 26 | 25317 | 27182.9866666667 | -1865.98666666666 |
| 27 | 26558 | 29231.9866666667 | -2673.98666666667 |
| 28 | 26471 | 29769.9866666667 | -3298.98666666666 |
| 29 | 27543 | 31042.2593939394 | -3499.25939393939 |
| 30 | 26198 | 31967.1684848485 | -5769.16848484848 |
| 31 | 24725 | 30897.4412121212 | -6172.44121212121 |
| 32 | 25005 | 31077.2593939394 | -6072.25939393939 |
| 33 | 23462 | 29338.9866666667 | -5876.98666666667 |
| 34 | 20780 | 27251.1434343434 | -6471.14343434344 |
| 35 | 19815 | 25854.3434343434 | -6039.34343434344 |
| 36 | 19761 | 24047.1434343434 | -4286.14343434343 |
| 37 | 21454 | 26419.7183838384 | -4965.71838383838 |
| 38 | 23899 | 28764.8092929293 | -4865.80929292929 |
| 39 | 24939 | 30813.8092929293 | -5874.8092929293 |
| 40 | 23580 | 31351.8092929293 | -7771.80929292929 |
| 41 | 24562 | 32624.082020202 | -8062.08202020202 |
| 42 | 24696 | 33548.9911111111 | -8852.99111111111 |
| 43 | 23785 | 32479.2638383838 | -8694.26383838384 |
| 44 | 23812 | 32659.082020202 | -8847.08202020202 |
| 45 | 21917 | 30920.8092929293 | -9003.80929292929 |
| 46 | 19713 | 28832.9660606061 | -9119.96606060606 |
| 47 | 19282 | 27436.1660606061 | -8154.16606060606 |
| 48 | 18788 | 25628.9660606061 | -6840.96606060606 |
| 49 | 21453 | 28001.541010101 | -6548.541010101 |
| 50 | 24482 | 30346.6319191919 | -5864.63191919192 |
| 51 | 27474 | 32395.6319191919 | -4921.63191919192 |
| 52 | 27264 | 32933.6319191919 | -5669.63191919191 |
| 53 | 27349 | 34205.9046464646 | -6856.90464646465 |
| 54 | 30632 | 35130.8137373737 | -4498.81373737374 |
| 55 | 29429 | 34061.0864646465 | -4632.08646464647 |
| 56 | 30084 | 34240.9046464646 | -4156.90464646464 |
| 57 | 26290 | 32502.6319191919 | -6212.63191919192 |
| 58 | 24379 | 30414.7886868687 | -6035.78868686869 |
| 59 | 23335 | 29017.9886868687 | -5682.98868686869 |
| 60 | 21346 | 27210.7886868687 | -5864.78868686869 |
| 61 | 21106 | 29583.3636363636 | -8477.36363636363 |
| 62 | 24514 | 31928.4545454545 | -7414.45454545454 |
| 63 | 28353 | 33977.4545454546 | -5624.45454545455 |
| 64 | 30805 | 34515.4545454545 | -3710.45454545454 |
| 65 | 31348 | 35787.7272727273 | -4439.72727272727 |
| 66 | 34556 | 36712.6363636364 | -2156.63636363637 |
| 67 | 33855 | 35642.9090909091 | -1787.90909090909 |
| 68 | 34787 | 35822.7272727273 | -1035.72727272727 |
| 69 | 32529 | 34084.4545454545 | -1555.45454545454 |
| 70 | 29998 | 31996.6113131313 | -1998.61131313131 |
| 71 | 29257 | 30599.8113131313 | -1342.81131313131 |
| 72 | 28155 | 28792.6113131313 | -637.611313131313 |
| 73 | 30466 | 31165.1862626263 | -699.186262626257 |
| 74 | 35704 | 33510.2771717172 | 2193.72282828283 |
| 75 | 39327 | 35559.2771717172 | 3767.72282828282 |
| 76 | 39351 | 36097.2771717172 | 3253.72282828283 |
| 77 | 42234 | 37369.5498989899 | 4864.4501010101 |
| 78 | 43630 | 38294.458989899 | 5335.54101010101 |
| 79 | 43722 | 37224.7317171717 | 6497.26828282828 |
| 80 | 43121 | 37404.5498989899 | 5716.4501010101 |
| 81 | 37985 | 35666.2771717172 | 2318.72282828283 |
| 82 | 37135 | 33578.4339393939 | 3556.56606060606 |
| 83 | 34646 | 32181.6339393939 | 2464.36606060606 |
| 84 | 33026 | 30374.4339393939 | 2651.56606060606 |
| 85 | 35087 | 32747.0088888889 | 2339.99111111112 |
| 86 | 38846 | 35092.0997979798 | 3753.9002020202 |
| 87 | 42013 | 37141.0997979798 | 4871.9002020202 |
| 88 | 43908 | 37679.0997979798 | 6228.9002020202 |
| 89 | 42868 | 38951.3725252525 | 3916.62747474747 |
| 90 | 44423 | 39876.2816161616 | 4546.71838383838 |
| 91 | 44167 | 38806.5543434343 | 5360.44565656565 |
| 92 | 43636 | 38986.3725252525 | 4649.62747474748 |
| 93 | 44382 | 37248.0997979798 | 7133.9002020202 |
| 94 | 42142 | 35160.2565656566 | 6981.74343434343 |
| 95 | 43452 | 33763.4565656566 | 9688.54343434343 |
| 96 | 36912 | 31956.2565656566 | 4955.74343434343 |
| 97 | 42413 | 34328.8315151515 | 8084.16848484849 |
| 98 | 45344 | 36673.9224242424 | 8670.07757575758 |
| 99 | 44873 | 38722.9224242424 | 6150.07757575757 |
| 100 | 47510 | 39260.9224242424 | 8249.07757575758 |
| 101 | 49554 | 40533.1951515152 | 9020.80484848485 |
| 102 | 47369 | 41458.1042424242 | 5910.89575757576 |
| 103 | 45998 | 40388.376969697 | 5609.62303030303 |
| 104 | 48140 | 40568.1951515152 | 7571.80484848485 |
| 105 | 48441 | 38829.9224242424 | 9611.07757575757 |
| 106 | 44928 | 36742.0791919192 | 8185.9208080808 |
| 107 | 40454 | 35345.2791919192 | 5108.72080808081 |
| 108 | 38661 | 33538.0791919192 | 5122.92080808081 |
| 109 | 37246 | 35910.6541414141 | 1335.34585858586 |
| 110 | 36843 | 38255.7450505051 | -1412.74505050505 |
| 111 | 36424 | 40304.7450505051 | -3880.74505050506 |
| 112 | 37594 | 40842.745050505 | -3248.74505050505 |
| 113 | 38144 | 42115.0177777778 | -3971.01777777778 |
| 114 | 38737 | 43039.9268686869 | -4302.92686868687 |
| 115 | 34560 | 41970.1995959596 | -7410.1995959596 |
| 116 | 36080 | 42150.0177777778 | -6070.01777777778 |
| 117 | 33508 | 40411.7450505051 | -6903.74505050505 |
| 118 | 35462 | 38323.9018181818 | -2861.90181818182 |
| 119 | 33374 | 36927.1018181818 | -3553.10181818182 |
| 120 | 32110 | 35119.9018181818 | -3009.90181818182 |
| 121 | 35533 | 37492.4767676768 | -1959.47676767676 |
| 122 | 35532 | 39837.5676767677 | -4305.56767676768 |
| 123 | 37903 | 41886.5676767677 | -3983.56767676769 |
| 124 | 36763 | 42424.5676767677 | -5661.56767676768 |
| 125 | 40399 | 43696.8404040404 | -3297.84040404041 |
| 126 | 44164 | 44621.7494949495 | -457.7494949495 |
| 127 | 44496 | 43552.0222222222 | 943.97777777777 |
| 128 | 43110 | 43731.8404040404 | -621.840404040406 |
| 129 | 43880 | 41993.5676767677 | 1886.43232323232 |
