| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 0.56278376127218 |
| beta | 0 |
| gamma | FALSE |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 3 | 43129 | 39690 | 3439 |
| 4 | 37863 | 41625.413355015 | -3762.41335501503 |
| 5 | 35953 | 39507.988215619 | -3554.98821561899 |
| 6 | 29133 | 37507.2985763547 | -8374.29857635465 |
| 7 | 24693 | 32794.3793255375 | -8101.37932553751 |
| 8 | 22205 | 28235.0545972188 | -6030.05459721883 |
| 9 | 21725 | 24841.4377903194 | -3116.43779031941 |
| 10 | 27192 | 23087.5572089127 | 4104.44279108731 |
| 11 | 21790 | 25397.4709608073 | -3607.47096080729 |
| 12 | 13253 | 23367.244884804 | -10114.244884804 |
| 13 | 37702 | 17675.1121061061 | 20026.8878938939 |
| 14 | 30364 | 28945.919401608 | 1418.080598392 |
| 15 | 32609 | 29743.9921345582 | 2865.00786544185 |
| 16 | 30212 | 31356.3720371459 | -1144.37203714590 |
| 17 | 29965 | 30712.3380377862 | -747.338037786223 |
| 18 | 28352 | 30291.7483259391 | -1939.74832593912 |
| 19 | 25814 | 29200.0894671457 | -3386.08946714569 |
| 20 | 22414 | 27294.4533008213 | -4880.45330082133 |
| 21 | 20506 | 24547.8134354719 | -4041.81343547187 |
| 22 | 28806 | 22273.1464678966 | 6532.85353210342 |
| 23 | 22228 | 25949.730350534 | -3721.73035053399 |
| 24 | 13971 | 23855.2009454196 | -9884.20094541964 |
| 25 | 36845 | 18292.5331601863 | 18552.4668398137 |
| 26 | 35338 | 28733.5602291741 | 6604.43977082593 |
| 27 | 35022 | 32450.4316844951 | 2571.56831550493 |
| 28 | 34777 | 33897.6685734633 | 879.3314265367 |
| 29 | 26887 | 34392.5420210945 | -7505.54202109446 |
| 30 | 23970 | 30168.5448520765 | -6198.54485207652 |
| 31 | 22780 | 26680.1044658106 | -3900.10446581058 |
| 32 | 17351 | 24485.1890051873 | -7134.18900518728 |
| 33 | 21382 | 20470.1832832213 | 911.816716778656 |
| 34 | 24561 | 20983.3389246809 | 3577.66107531911 |
| 35 | 17409 | 22996.7884812061 | -5587.78848120605 |
| 36 | 11514 | 19852.0718625595 | -8338.07186255954 |
| 37 | 31514 | 15159.5404179905 | 16354.4595820095 |
| 38 | 27071 | 24363.5646951277 | 2707.43530487232 |
| 39 | 29462 | 25887.2653194048 | 3574.73468059518 |
| 40 | 26105 | 27899.0679485003 | -1794.06794850028 |
| 41 | 22397 | 26889.3956404654 | -4492.39564046543 |
| 42 | 23843 | 24361.1483248015 | -518.148324801547 |
| 43 | 21705 | 24069.5428616729 | -2364.54286167285 |
| 44 | 18089 | 22738.8165362913 | -4649.81653629132 |
| 45 | 20764 | 20121.9752967717 | 642.02470322829 |
| 46 | 25316 | 20483.2963740842 | 4832.70362591582 |
| 47 | 17704 | 23203.0634977908 | -5499.06349779079 |
| 48 | 15548 | 20108.2798590295 | -4560.27985902954 |
| 49 | 28029 | 17541.8284075111 | 10487.1715924889 |
| 50 | 29383 | 23443.8382814388 | 5939.16171856122 |
| 51 | 36438 | 26786.3020522144 | 9651.69794778559 |
| 52 | 32034 | 32218.1209259322 | -184.120925932169 |
| 53 | 22679 | 32114.5006587071 | -9435.50065870715 |
| 54 | 24319 | 26804.3541085138 | -2485.3541085138 |
| 55 | 18004 | 25405.6371752311 | -7401.63717523114 |
| 56 | 17537 | 21240.1159661826 | -3703.11596618256 |
| 57 | 20366 | 19156.0624343073 | 1209.93756569273 |
| 58 | 22782 | 19836.9956484323 | 2945.00435156767 |
| 59 | 19169 | 21494.3962743705 | -2325.39627437052 |
| 60 | 13807 | 20185.7010126320 | -6378.70101263197 |
| 61 | 29743 | 16595.8716647123 | 13147.1283352877 |
| 62 | 25591 | 23994.8619991736 | 1596.13800082644 |
| 63 | 29096 | 24893.1425467881 | 4202.85745321188 |
| 64 | 26482 | 27258.4424723975 | -776.44247239752 |
| 65 | 22405 | 26821.4732573702 | -4416.47325737017 |
| 66 | 27044 | 24335.9538260294 | 2708.04617397061 |
| 67 | 17970 | 25859.9982375153 | -7889.9982375153 |
| 68 | 18730 | 21419.6353529756 | -2689.63535297557 |
| 69 | 19684 | 19905.9522525774 | -221.95225257735 |
| 70 | 19785 | 19781.0411290490 | 3.95887095096259 |
| 71 | 18479 | 19783.2691173332 | -1304.26911733321 |
| 72 | 10698 | 19049.2476377693 | -8351.24763776928 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 73 | 14349.3010808701 | 1752.95244690866 | 26945.6497148315 |
| 74 | 14349.3010808701 | -104.840541041589 | 28803.4427027817 |
| 75 | 14349.3010808701 | -1749.65606374823 | 30448.2582254884 |
| 76 | 14349.3010808701 | -3241.33939246785 | 31939.941554208 |
| 77 | 14349.3010808701 | -4616.05795554714 | 33314.6601172873 |
| 78 | 14349.3010808701 | -5897.65065261784 | 34596.252814358 |
| 79 | 14349.3010808701 | -7102.81456342401 | 35801.4167251642 |
| 80 | 14349.3010808701 | -8243.78362959265 | 36942.3857913328 |
| 81 | 14349.3010808701 | -9329.83927202539 | 38028.4414337655 |
| 82 | 14349.3010808701 | -10368.2210232993 | 39066.8231850394 |
| 83 | 14349.3010808701 | -11364.7050264652 | 40063.3071882054 |
| 84 | 14349.3010808701 | -12323.9874529057 | 41022.5896146459 |
