| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 0.999933893038648 |
| beta | FALSE |
| gamma | FALSE |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 2 | 96 | 164 | -68 |
| 3 | 73 | 96.004495273372 | -23.0044952733719 |
| 4 | 49 | 73.00152075728 | -24.0015207572799 |
| 5 | 39 | 49.0015866676051 | -10.0015866676051 |
| 6 | 59 | 39.0006611745033 | 19.9993388254967 |
| 7 | 169 | 58.9986779044812 | 110.001322095519 |
| 8 | 169 | 168.992728146852 | 0.00727185314843837 |
| 9 | 210 | 168.99999951928 | 41.0000004807201 |
| 10 | 278 | 209.997289614553 | 68.0027103854472 |
| 11 | 298 | 277.995504547453 | 20.0044954525473 |
| 12 | 245 | 297.998677563592 | -52.9986775635923 |
| 13 | 200 | 245.003503581529 | -45.0035035815294 |
| 14 | 188 | 200.002975044872 | -12.002975044872 |
| 15 | 90 | 188.000793480207 | -98.0007934802074 |
| 16 | 79 | 90.006478534667 | -11.0064785346671 |
| 17 | 78 | 79.0007276048511 | -1.00072760485111 |
| 18 | 91 | 78.0000661550611 | 12.9999338449389 |
| 19 | 167 | 90.9991406138757 | 76.0008593861243 |
| 20 | 169 | 166.994975814126 | 2.00502418587416 |
| 21 | 289 | 168.999867453944 | 120.000132546056 |
| 22 | 247 | 288.992067155876 | -41.9920671558755 |
| 23 | 275 | 247.002775967961 | 27.9972240320394 |
| 24 | 203 | 274.998149188593 | -71.9981491885929 |
| 25 | 223 | 203.004759578866 | 19.9952404211342 |
| 26 | 104 | 222.998678175414 | -118.998678175414 |
| 27 | 107 | 104.007866641019 | 2.99213335898092 |
| 28 | 85 | 106.999802199156 | -21.9998021991557 |
| 29 | 75 | 85.0014543400737 | -10.0014543400737 |
| 30 | 99 | 75.0006611657555 | 23.9993388342445 |
| 31 | 135 | 98.9984134766352 | 36.0015865233648 |
| 32 | 211 | 134.997620044511 | 76.0023799554889 |
| 33 | 335 | 210.994975713606 | 124.005024286394 |
| 34 | 488 | 334.991802404652 | 153.008197595348 |
| 35 | 326 | 487.989885092995 | -161.989885092995 |
| 36 | 346 | 326.010708659073 | 19.9892913409267 |
| 37 | 261 | 345.99867856869 | -84.9986785686899 |
| 38 | 224 | 261.005619004359 | -37.0056190043591 |
| 39 | 141 | 224.002446329025 | -83.0024463290253 |
| 40 | 148 | 141.005487039512 | 6.9945129604884 |
| 41 | 145 | 147.999537614002 | -2.99953761400207 |
| 42 | 223 | 145.000198290317 | 77.9998017096829 |
| 43 | 272 | 222.994843670123 | 49.0051563298771 |
| 44 | 445 | 271.996760418024 | 173.003239581976 |
| 45 | 560 | 444.988563281527 | 115.011436718473 |
| 46 | 612 | 559.992396943398 | 52.0076030566021 |
| 47 | 467 | 611.996561935395 | -144.996561935395 |
| 48 | 404 | 467.009585282116 | -63.009585282116 |
| 49 | 518 | 404.004165372219 | 113.995834627781 |
| 50 | 404 | 517.992464081766 | -113.992464081766 |
| 51 | 300 | 404.007535695417 | -104.007535695417 |
| 52 | 210 | 300.006875622143 | -90.0068756221425 |
| 53 | 196 | 210.005950081048 | -14.0059500810482 |
| 54 | 186 | 196.000925890801 | -10.0009258908007 |
| 55 | 247 | 186.000661130821 | 60.9993388691786 |
| 56 | 343 | 246.995967519063 | 96.0040324809371 |
| 57 | 464 | 342.993653465135 | 121.006346534865 |
| 58 | 680 | 463.992000638126 | 216.007999361874 |
| 59 | 711 | 679.985720367535 | 31.0142796324654 |
| 60 | 610 | 710.997949740215 | -100.997949740215 |
| 61 | 513 | 610.00667666756 | -97.0066766675601 |
| 62 | 292 | 513.006412816625 | -221.006412816625 |
| 63 | 273 | 292.014610062391 | -19.0146100623905 |
| 64 | 322 | 273.001256998093 | 48.9987430019075 |
| 65 | 189 | 321.99676084199 | -132.99676084199 |
| 66 | 257 | 189.008792011729 | 67.9912079882711 |
| 67 | 324 | 256.995505307841 | 67.0044946921587 |
| 68 | 404 | 323.995570536459 | 80.004429463541 |
| 69 | 677 | 403.994711150273 | 273.005288849727 |
| 70 | 858 | 676.981952449921 | 181.018047550079 |
| 71 | 895 | 857.988033446927 | 37.0119665530734 |
| 72 | 664 | 894.997553251358 | -230.997553251358 |
| 73 | 628 | 664.015270546325 | -36.0152705463252 |
| 74 | 308 | 628.002380860098 | -320.002380860098 |
| 75 | 324 | 308.021154385024 | 15.9788456149760 |
| 76 | 248 | 323.998943687070 | -75.9989436870705 |
| 77 | 272 | 248.005024059233 | 23.9949759407669 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 78 | 271.998413765053 | 76.271369101634 | 467.725458428472 |
| 79 | 271.998413765053 | -4.79227827417157 | 548.789105804277 |
| 80 | 271.998413765053 | -66.9958315938169 | 610.992659123923 |
| 81 | 271.998413765053 | -119.436267341906 | 663.433094872011 |
| 82 | 271.998413765053 | -165.637417446450 | 709.634244976556 |
| 83 | 271.998413765053 | -207.406563208549 | 751.403390738655 |
| 84 | 271.998413765053 | -245.817328689671 | 789.814156219777 |
| 85 | 271.998413765053 | -281.569246345989 | 825.566073876094 |
| 86 | 271.998413765053 | -315.148216564791 | 859.145044094897 |
| 87 | 271.998413765053 | -346.908022374181 | 890.904849904286 |
| 88 | 271.998413765053 | -377.115742513674 | 921.11257004378 |
| 89 | 271.998413765053 | -405.978871303054 | 949.97569883316 |
