| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 0.0165590081393153 |
| beta | 0.812571984122757 |
| gamma | 0.275925381237208 |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 13 | 15028 | 14043.3258547009 | 984.674145299134 |
| 14 | 17977 | 16849.9018144656 | 1127.09818553442 |
| 15 | 20008 | 18885.0433829961 | 1122.95661700386 |
| 16 | 21354 | 20474.2678527804 | 879.732147219562 |
| 17 | 19498 | 18836.843568961 | 661.156431039013 |
| 18 | 22125 | 21665.1126697963 | 459.88733020371 |
| 19 | 25817 | 24118.3202488759 | 1698.67975112414 |
| 20 | 28779 | 25198.2723936461 | 3580.72760635391 |
| 21 | 20960 | 22901.4027899613 | -1941.40278996134 |
| 22 | 22254 | 24450.8865266520 | -2196.88652665198 |
| 23 | 27392 | 28641.6214163024 | -1249.62141630243 |
| 24 | 29945 | 31621.3946046582 | -1676.39460465818 |
| 25 | 16933 | 17112.5335452297 | -179.533545229693 |
| 26 | 17892 | 19969.2434291384 | -2077.24342913844 |
| 27 | 20533 | 21937.8491681524 | -1404.84916815238 |
| 28 | 23569 | 23372.8513091111 | 196.148690888909 |
| 29 | 22417 | 21609.2339050159 | 807.766094984083 |
| 30 | 22084 | 24331.7260094808 | -2247.72600948080 |
| 31 | 26580 | 26986.2313177364 | -406.231317736401 |
| 32 | 27454 | 28423.6903866504 | -969.690386650425 |
| 33 | 24081 | 24373.4342655675 | -292.434265567535 |
| 34 | 23451 | 25723.5125969617 | -2272.51259696168 |
| 35 | 28991 | 30011.6404411801 | -1020.64044118013 |
| 36 | 31386 | 32724.0776112328 | -1338.07761123275 |
| 37 | 16896 | 18476.2335461904 | -1580.23354619036 |
| 38 | 20045 | 20625.1787534420 | -580.17875344204 |
| 39 | 23471 | 22651.5615379194 | 819.43846208063 |
| 40 | 21747 | 24438.2939289779 | -2691.29392897788 |
| 41 | 25621 | 22634.4352870515 | 2986.56471294846 |
| 42 | 23859 | 24434.8012800507 | -575.80128005071 |
| 43 | 25500 | 27510.1119087904 | -2010.11190879042 |
| 44 | 30998 | 28639.9519508515 | 2358.04804914852 |
| 45 | 24475 | 24745.1914492925 | -270.191449292539 |
| 46 | 23145 | 25475.2444308131 | -2330.24443081305 |
| 47 | 29701 | 30018.2560450529 | -317.256045052887 |
| 48 | 34365 | 32581.8026033597 | 1783.19739664027 |
| 49 | 17556 | 18287.5317969618 | -731.531796961805 |
| 50 | 22077 | 20700.9200583960 | 1376.07994160396 |
| 51 | 25702 | 23144.8319504787 | 2557.16804952134 |
| 52 | 22214 | 24036.4021951834 | -1822.40219518340 |
| 53 | 26886 | 23828.0679336959 | 3057.93206630407 |
| 54 | 23191 | 24704.3189188362 | -1513.31891883618 |
| 55 | 27831 | 27403.6550380826 | 427.344961917439 |
| 56 | 35406 | 29820.7408511533 | 5585.25914884671 |
| 57 | 23195 | 25371.2097547596 | -2176.20975475962 |
| 58 | 25110 | 25590.0257500626 | -480.025750062643 |
| 59 | 30009 | 30814.1409034512 | -805.14090345117 |
| 60 | 36242 | 34037.2438428638 | 2204.75615713616 |
| 61 | 18450 | 19170.9021127666 | -720.902112766584 |
| 62 | 21845 | 22259.8593732385 | -414.859373238534 |
| 63 | 26488 | 25073.9922360493 | 1414.00776395072 |
| 64 | 22394 | 24822.2085203781 | -2428.20852037808 |
| 65 | 28057 | 25984.0006976503 | 2072.99930234966 |
| 66 | 25451 | 25646.1000222340 | -195.100022233961 |
| 67 | 24872 | 28954.2088554446 | -4082.20885544463 |
| 68 | 33424 | 32695.9086966455 | 728.091303354526 |
| 69 | 24052 | 25994.1240270446 | -1942.12402704457 |
| 70 | 28449 | 26614.5362616634 | 1834.46373833664 |
| 71 | 33533 | 31757.3471042721 | 1775.65289572786 |
| 72 | 37351 | 35843.2577220665 | 1507.74227793349 |
| 73 | 19969 | 20165.417320889 | -196.417320889002 |
| 74 | 21701 | 23347.1023896216 | -1646.10238962161 |
| 75 | 26249 | 26621.5511401614 | -372.551140161388 |
| 76 | 24493 | 25257.964604262 | -764.964604261986 |
| 77 | 24603 | 27651.4998137125 | -3048.49981371247 |
| 78 | 26485 | 26527.1874591475 | -42.1874591475134 |
| 79 | 30723 | 28698.9526572373 | 2024.04734276273 |
| 80 | 34569 | 33845.1493536221 | 723.85064637789 |
| 81 | 26689 | 26416.7354781968 | 272.264521803158 |
| 82 | 26157 | 28126.4330911603 | -1969.43309116025 |
| 83 | 32064 | 33166.929882362 | -1102.92988236200 |
| 84 | 38870 | 37070.3757412369 | 1799.6242587631 |
| 85 | 21337 | 20876.7624643109 | 460.237535689106 |
| 86 | 19419 | 23626.6037536597 | -4207.60375365971 |
| 87 | 23166 | 27120.4206745899 | -3954.4206745899 |
| 88 | 28286 | 25459.0405151141 | 2826.9594848859 |
| 89 | 24570 | 27208.7358759055 | -2638.73587590551 |
| 90 | 24001 | 26828.8374132503 | -2827.83741325027 |
| 91 | 33151 | 29399.5256277653 | 3751.47437223467 |
| 92 | 24878 | 34129.1181181138 | -9251.11811811375 |
| 93 | 26804 | 26186.3787642776 | 617.621235722359 |
| 94 | 28967 | 27071.5340754950 | 1895.46592450503 |
| 95 | 33311 | 32241.2023728327 | 1069.79762716727 |
| 96 | 40226 | 36827.5292535467 | 3398.47074645328 |
| 97 | 20504 | 20177.7296872069 | 326.270312793069 |
| 98 | 23060 | 21537.6912124111 | 1522.30878758886 |
| 99 | 23562 | 25151.1777029187 | -1589.17770291867 |
| 100 | 27562 | 25357.0443848281 | 2204.95561517187 |
| 101 | 23940 | 25592.829966219 | -1652.82996621901 |
| 102 | 24584 | 25170.749997975 | -586.749997974981 |
| 103 | 34303 | 29586.8477674131 | 4716.15223258694 |
| 104 | 25517 | 30840.0201590292 | -5323.02015902921 |
| 105 | 23494 | 25729.0667639215 | -2235.06676392154 |
| 106 | 29095 | 26964.1472726212 | 2130.85272737878 |
| 107 | 32903 | 31967.2418782559 | 935.758121744082 |
| 108 | 34379 | 37235.0246930085 | -2856.02469300845 |
| 109 | 16991 | 19615.6145007068 | -2624.61450070684 |
| 110 | 21109 | 21179.1782690323 | -70.1782690322507 |
| 111 | 23740 | 23828.4590254018 | -88.4590254017858 |
| 112 | 25552 | 25015.4167931369 | 536.583206863092 |
| 113 | 21752 | 24080.97122572 | -2328.97122572002 |
| 114 | 20294 | 23832.1148185671 | -3538.11481856714 |
| 115 | 29009 | 29493.7374929715 | -484.737492971457 |
| 116 | 25500 | 27722.0358357092 | -2222.03583570921 |
| 117 | 24166 | 23327.5328178823 | 838.4671821177 |
| 118 | 26960 | 25666.7489292723 | 1293.25107072767 |
| 119 | 31222 | 30188.9279778528 | 1033.07202214723 |
| 120 | 38641 | 34287.9581218251 | 4353.04187817489 |
| 121 | 14672 | 16806.2784949350 | -2134.27849493498 |
| 122 | 17543 | 19033.2827967697 | -1490.28279676972 |
| 123 | 25453 | 21597.1379900262 | 3855.86200997376 |
| 124 | 32683 | 23015.1418892282 | 9667.85811077176 |
| 125 | 22449 | 21573.3025914227 | 875.6974085773 |
| 126 | 22316 | 21211.5113536601 | 1104.48864633989 |
| 127 | 27595 | 28003.1400296920 | -408.140029691971 |
| 128 | 25451 | 25986.8863214846 | -535.886321484551 |
| 129 | 25421 | 22699.0854031261 | 2721.91459687386 |
| 130 | 25288 | 25466.5348022003 | -178.534802200349 |
| 131 | 32568 | 30147.5746368163 | 2420.42536318365 |
| 132 | 35110 | 35442.9735209674 | -332.97352096736 |
| 133 | 16052 | 16332.7712356516 | -280.771235651608 |
| 134 | 22146 | 18999.6083052742 | 3146.39169472577 |
| 135 | 21198 | 23387.7289287219 | -2189.72892872186 |
| 136 | 19543 | 26498.1764753956 | -6955.17647539564 |
| 137 | 22084 | 22387.029099501 | -303.029099500978 |
| 138 | 23816 | 22043.7044035262 | 1772.29559647384 |
| 139 | 29961 | 28420.8166664163 | 1540.18333358365 |
| 140 | 26773 | 26413.2626719779 | 359.737328022147 |
| 141 | 26635 | 24047.4704342945 | 2587.52956570546 |
| 142 | 26972 | 26046.9841803606 | 925.015819639371 |
| 143 | 30207 | 31487.7356481160 | -1280.73564811604 |
| 144 | 38687 | 35961.0878441911 | 2725.91215580889 |
| 145 | 16974 | 16943.254665226 | 30.7453347739938 |
| 146 | 21697 | 20576.9756461118 | 1120.02435388822 |
| 147 | 24179 | 23488.0291179545 | 690.970882045498 |
| 148 | 23757 | 25396.2823582033 | -1639.28235820331 |
| 149 | 25013 | 23293.0291485370 | 1719.97085146305 |
| 150 | 24019 | 23688.3419946624 | 330.658005337562 |
| 151 | 30345 | 30101.1854217337 | 243.814578266276 |
| 152 | 24488 | 27856.988592583 | -3368.98859258301 |
| 153 | 25156 | 26088.9516746804 | -932.951674680444 |
| 154 | 25650 | 27586.6404748639 | -1936.64047486386 |
| 155 | 30923 | 32350.5607992501 | -1427.56079925007 |
| 156 | 37240 | 37875.8350444651 | -635.835044465086 |
| 157 | 17466 | 17992.8745627008 | -526.87456270081 |
| 158 | 19463 | 21827.3321531516 | -2364.33215315158 |
| 159 | 24352 | 24431.7658837295 | -79.7658837294657 |
| 160 | 26805 | 25552.0610804331 | 1252.93891956686 |
| 161 | 25236 | 24304.3043264481 | 931.695673551876 |
| 162 | 24735 | 24195.0082500898 | 539.99174991015 |
| 163 | 29356 | 30476.0121575791 | -1120.01215757914 |
| 164 | 31234 | 27098.7835184169 | 4135.21648158312 |
| 165 | 22724 | 26086.9236289532 | -3362.92362895325 |
| 166 | 28496 | 27210.2017793080 | 1285.79822069205 |
| 167 | 32857 | 32147.1682272963 | 709.831772703721 |
| 168 | 37198 | 37932.978553725 | -734.978553724992 |
| 169 | 13652 | 18086.9126406551 | -4434.91264065506 |
| 170 | 22784 | 21314.4362565109 | 1469.56374348911 |
| 171 | 23565 | 24610.2585790204 | -1045.25857902037 |
| 172 | 26323 | 26071.1845412166 | 251.815458783389 |
| 173 | 23779 | 24701.188766221 | -922.188766221017 |
| 174 | 27549 | 24411.4681110077 | 3137.53188899227 |
| 175 | 29660 | 30276.5482912322 | -616.548291232175 |
| 176 | 23356 | 28331.986528598 | -4975.986528598 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 177 | 25010.2820675190 | 20467.6442988532 | 29552.9198361848 |
| 178 | 27371.6521365169 | 22826.9686793683 | 31916.3355936655 |
| 179 | 32034.6791237053 | 27485.7076876782 | 36583.6505597325 |
| 180 | 37310.7700751465 | 32754.4546639318 | 41867.0854863612 |
| 181 | 16376.8567245526 | 11809.3380593957 | 20944.3753897095 |
| 182 | 21243.6911864798 | 16660.3230968676 | 25827.0592760919 |
| 183 | 23776.6485316996 | 19172.0214001873 | 28381.2756632119 |
| 184 | 25564.7990466428 | 20932.7711201789 | 30196.8269731066 |
| 185 | 23826.6185605916 | 19160.3555860527 | 28492.8815351305 |
| 186 | 24620.7663246296 | 19912.7895450433 | 29328.7431042160 |
| 187 | 29339.9489509978 | 24582.1910369075 | 34097.7068650881 |
| 188 | 26155.6816329874 | 21339.5496567769 | 30971.8136091979 |
