| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 0.128930926063041 |
| beta | 0 |
| gamma | 0.318961787795898 |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 13 | 530 | 488.836959000463 | 41.163040999537 |
| 14 | 883 | 814.755238932398 | 68.2447610676024 |
| 15 | 894 | 834.618524038146 | 59.3814759618537 |
| 16 | 1045 | 999.136032009431 | 45.8639679905687 |
| 17 | 1199 | 1167.51744281063 | 31.482557189365 |
| 18 | 1287 | 1265.76789251401 | 21.2321074859897 |
| 19 | 1565 | 1471.54411690621 | 93.4558830937872 |
| 20 | 1577 | 1416.67395034437 | 160.326049655626 |
| 21 | 1076 | 1269.32628721627 | -193.326287216273 |
| 22 | 918 | 1065.59758763115 | -147.59758763115 |
| 23 | 1008 | 1084.10736657534 | -76.1073665753393 |
| 24 | 1063 | 1034.95187934667 | 28.0481206533341 |
| 25 | 544 | 581.982552876673 | -37.9825528766735 |
| 26 | 635 | 950.01704297119 | -315.01704297119 |
| 27 | 804 | 917.750504008931 | -113.750504008931 |
| 28 | 980 | 1063.42543153308 | -83.425431533082 |
| 29 | 1018 | 1216.09603740949 | -198.096037409493 |
| 30 | 1064 | 1282.55780969 | -218.557809689996 |
| 31 | 1404 | 1474.02347356886 | -70.0234735688623 |
| 32 | 1286 | 1417.91458147564 | -131.914581475643 |
| 33 | 1104 | 1148.84690724577 | -44.8469072457665 |
| 34 | 999 | 983.319274434598 | 15.6807255654018 |
| 35 | 996 | 1041.62335100716 | -45.6233510071593 |
| 36 | 1015 | 1025.66177783381 | -10.661777833812 |
| 37 | 615 | 559.41124784028 | 55.58875215972 |
| 38 | 722 | 858.653333515284 | -136.653333515284 |
| 39 | 832 | 906.056318391444 | -74.0563183914444 |
| 40 | 977 | 1069.55862086222 | -92.558620862217 |
| 41 | 1270 | 1191.23602602605 | 78.7639739739534 |
| 42 | 1437 | 1290.50915889254 | 146.490841107455 |
| 43 | 1520 | 1593.93855847725 | -73.9385584772474 |
| 44 | 1708 | 1512.02680738276 | 195.973192617235 |
| 45 | 1151 | 1278.88506606663 | -127.88506606663 |
| 46 | 934 | 1101.55325635511 | -167.553256355113 |
| 47 | 1159 | 1121.70002051595 | 37.2999794840518 |
| 48 | 1209 | 1125.00450634842 | 83.9954936515812 |
| 49 | 699 | 638.412885070325 | 60.5871149296751 |
| 50 | 830 | 909.400985151323 | -79.4009851513226 |
| 51 | 996 | 990.093850771437 | 5.90614922856298 |
| 52 | 1124 | 1179.04487730169 | -55.044877301686 |
| 53 | 1458 | 1375.82991843032 | 82.1700815696847 |
| 54 | 1270 | 1506.27911116514 | -236.279111165137 |
| 55 | 1753 | 1718.31390418861 | 34.6860958113941 |
| 56 | 2258 | 1723.10131469528 | 534.898685304722 |
| 57 | 1208 | 1397.79915781359 | -189.799157813591 |
| 58 | 1241 | 1178.68476644001 | 62.3152335599891 |
| 59 | 1265 | 1298.32903611964 | -33.3290361196446 |
| 60 | 1828 | 1305.30176605924 | 522.698233940756 |
| 61 | 809 | 774.561182046743 | 34.4388179532569 |
| 62 | 997 | 1040.77010167047 | -43.7701016704652 |
| 63 | 1164 | 1168.750736122 | -4.75073612200322 |
| 64 | 1205 | 1367.69835490318 | -162.698354903181 |
| 65 | 1538 | 1626.18580375516 | -88.1858037551608 |
| 66 | 1513 | 1647.32610180476 | -134.326101804765 |
| 67 | 1378 | 1994.84739817591 | -616.847398175911 |
| 68 | 2083 | 2061.21782094063 | 21.7821790593721 |
| 69 | 1357 | 1428.82192211009 | -71.8219221100858 |
| 70 | 1536 | 1284.72546884146 | 251.274531158537 |
| 71 | 1526 | 1409.0793621541 | 116.920637845899 |
| 72 | 1376 | 1598.65940088833 | -222.659400888332 |
| 73 | 779 | 810.737142731786 | -31.7371427317856 |
| 74 | 1005 | 1051.93266238054 | -46.9326623805407 |
| 75 | 1193 | 1193.37607240146 | -0.376072401463716 |
| 76 | 1522 | 1351.58581532865 | 170.414184671352 |
| 77 | 1539 | 1689.45800268104 | -150.458002681037 |
| 78 | 1546 | 1689.68549575823 | -143.685495758233 |
| 79 | 2116 | 1905.13461397818 | 210.865386021819 |
| 80 | 2326 | 2288.75654810259 | 37.2434518974096 |
| 81 | 1596 | 1559.59203705077 | 36.4079629492337 |
| 82 | 1356 | 1510.71249582127 | -154.712495821273 |
| 83 | 1553 | 1548.27143626207 | 4.72856373793252 |
| 84 | 1613 | 1632.16622149011 | -19.1662214901114 |
| 85 | 814 | 866.034135880248 | -52.0341358802476 |
| 86 | 1150 | 1118.27300435745 | 31.7269956425484 |
| 87 | 1225 | 1295.90142116044 | -70.9014211604399 |
| 88 | 1691 | 1506.94089288937 | 184.059107110631 |
| 89 | 1759 | 1773.46513372944 | -14.4651337294404 |
| 90 | 1754 | 1793.43097722 | -39.4309772200031 |
| 91 | 2100 | 2150.52505344622 | -50.5250534462157 |
| 92 | 2062 | 2474.58202317733 | -412.582023177332 |
| 93 | 2012 | 1649.1346153853 | 362.865384614701 |
| 94 | 1897 | 1579.57425173296 | 317.425748267038 |
| 95 | 1964 | 1733.10680944282 | 230.893190557183 |
| 96 | 2186 | 1848.4195148665 | 337.580485133498 |
| 97 | 966 | 990.716000674304 | -24.7160006743045 |
| 98 | 1549 | 1316.0008105535 | 232.999189446502 |
| 99 | 1538 | 1516.72552640782 | 21.2744735921835 |
| 100 | 1612 | 1865.30779150914 | -253.30779150914 |
| 101 | 2078 | 2048.08749988088 | 29.912500119121 |
| 102 | 2137 | 2067.22079795436 | 69.7792020456363 |
| 103 | 2907 | 2493.16925096452 | 413.830749035475 |
| 104 | 2249 | 2815.31344148215 | -566.313441482155 |
| 105 | 1883 | 2074.76570147992 | -191.765701479922 |
| 106 | 1739 | 1898.77284610268 | -159.772846102682 |
| 107 | 1828 | 1973.17415285425 | -145.174152854252 |
| 108 | 1868 | 2074.50887478497 | -206.508874784973 |
| 109 | 1138 | 1014.42752648855 | 123.572473511447 |
| 110 | 1430 | 1448.76169452103 | -18.761694521033 |
| 111 | 1809 | 1560.78133262785 | 248.218667372154 |
| 112 | 1763 | 1872.46637985904 | -109.466379859042 |
| 113 | 2200 | 2167.82898868275 | 32.1710113172498 |
| 114 | 2067 | 2198.99757413638 | -131.997574136377 |
| 115 | 2503 | 2712.5061091222 | -209.506109122202 |
| 116 | 2141 | 2677.56580949326 | -536.565809493257 |
| 117 | 2103 | 2039.05393585696 | 63.9460641430376 |
| 118 | 1972 | 1900.54022236162 | 71.4597776383785 |
| 119 | 2181 | 2012.03876025337 | 168.961239746629 |
| 120 | 2344 | 2141.73511193064 | 202.26488806936 |
| 121 | 970 | 1141.04354334108 | -171.043543341078 |
| 122 | 1199 | 1516.72816114098 | -317.728161140977 |
| 123 | 1718 | 1667.26490517322 | 50.7350948267826 |
| 124 | 1683 | 1855.10955042205 | -172.109550422053 |
| 125 | 2025 | 2182.6473164392 | -157.647316439195 |
| 126 | 2051 | 2143.70912748381 | -92.7091274838067 |
| 127 | 2439 | 2637.04671442342 | -198.046714423421 |
| 128 | 2353 | 2509.46343944918 | -156.463439449184 |
| 129 | 2230 | 2081.6786838611 | 148.321316138897 |
| 130 | 1852 | 1953.3393933984 | -101.339393398398 |
| 131 | 2147 | 2069.7932570341 | 77.2067429658987 |
| 132 | 2286 | 2196.18554403942 | 89.8144559605767 |
| 133 | 1007 | 1084.64792832793 | -77.6479283279318 |
| 134 | 1665 | 1430.19404726692 | 234.805952733082 |
| 135 | 1642 | 1769.23922025064 | -127.239220250645 |
| 136 | 1518 | 1875.82278453686 | -357.82278453686 |
| 137 | 1831 | 2191.54539780047 | -360.545397800471 |
| 138 | 2207 | 2144.1852889921 | 62.8147110079021 |
| 139 | 2822 | 2637.89742440654 | 184.102575593462 |
| 140 | 2393 | 2566.47025484257 | -173.470254842569 |
| 141 | 2306 | 2207.3178541476 | 98.6821458523982 |
| 142 | 1785 | 1994.72252902757 | -209.722529027573 |
| 143 | 2047 | 2151.5657479414 | -104.565747941396 |
| 144 | 2171 | 2259.77921774681 | -88.7792177468114 |
| 145 | 1212 | 1070.26508143284 | 141.734918567159 |
| 146 | 1335 | 1544.13335047299 | -209.133350472994 |
| 147 | 2011 | 1723.90986670662 | 287.090133293384 |
| 148 | 1860 | 1818.52528118565 | 41.4747188143513 |
| 149 | 1954 | 2201.59379662451 | -247.593796624513 |
| 150 | 2152 | 2292.73539533376 | -140.735395333763 |
| 151 | 2835 | 2817.79631950021 | 17.2036804997865 |
| 152 | 2224 | 2616.82823281662 | -392.828232816615 |
| 153 | 2182 | 2297.14668489139 | -115.146684891395 |
| 154 | 1992 | 1965.49774545083 | 26.5022545491749 |
| 155 | 2389 | 2188.10276913206 | 200.897230867938 |
| 156 | 2724 | 2345.61843415765 | 378.381565842351 |
| 157 | 891 | 1193.66533165031 | -302.665331650305 |
| 158 | 1247 | 1519.99089775424 | -272.990897754237 |
| 159 | 2017 | 1833.6017823691 | 183.398217630903 |
| 160 | 2257 | 1846.38991421296 | 410.610085787036 |
| 161 | 2255 | 2205.65988299307 | 49.3401170069328 |
| 162 | 2255 | 2371.89557184747 | -116.895571847472 |
| 163 | 3057 | 2974.95897107682 | 82.0410289231831 |
| 164 | 3330 | 2647.35367654447 | 682.646323455534 |
| 165 | 1896 | 2520.14220101209 | -624.142201012089 |
| 166 | 2096 | 2137.97226036437 | -41.9722603643736 |
| 167 | 2374 | 2419.71801410653 | -45.7180141065269 |
| 168 | 2535 | 2603.13644850773 | -68.1364485077324 |
| 169 | 1041 | 1148.50094503261 | -107.500945032608 |
| 170 | 1728 | 1528.24102368982 | 199.75897631018 |
| 171 | 2201 | 2076.81793642793 | 124.182063572066 |
| 172 | 2455 | 2145.67557931211 | 309.324420687888 |
| 173 | 2204 | 2408.11543436068 | -204.115434360685 |
| 174 | 2660 | 2502.4100837042 | 157.589916295803 |
| 175 | 3670 | 3252.23288577993 | 417.767114220065 |
| 176 | 2665 | 3109.72008884198 | -444.720088841978 |
| 177 | 2639 | 2442.44363392995 | 196.556366070055 |
| 178 | 2226 | 2314.42316529854 | -88.4231652985432 |
| 179 | 2586 | 2612.65435638818 | -26.6543563881764 |
| 180 | 2684 | 2806.99681258428 | -122.996812584276 |
| 181 | 1185 | 1211.47427616189 | -26.4742761618943 |
| 182 | 1749 | 1730.07097698978 | 18.929023010221 |
| 183 | 2459 | 2271.62383173616 | 187.37616826384 |
| 184 | 2618 | 2405.78894534092 | 212.211054659084 |
| 185 | 2585 | 2517.28777215458 | 67.7122278454153 |
| 186 | 3310 | 2764.81400431411 | 545.185995685893 |
| 187 | 3923 | 3717.0807290368 | 205.919270963203 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 188 | 3262.85177136468 | 3097.72152904174 | 3427.98201368762 |
| 189 | 2779.90302837329 | 2608.90564984175 | 2950.90040690483 |
| 190 | 2522.42600214267 | 2346.0307301367 | 2698.82127414863 |
| 191 | 2882.93206219246 | 2693.71910196571 | 3072.14502241921 |
| 192 | 3070.84778100357 | 2870.96264867982 | 3270.73291332731 |
| 193 | 1340.56310847027 | 1166.82838026063 | 1514.2978366799 |
| 194 | 1936.53683464632 | 1739.11931027985 | 2133.95435901279 |
| 195 | 2587.65967758138 | 2357.76423752613 | 2817.55511763663 |
| 196 | 2714.66020854536 | 2473.43565412475 | 2955.88476296597 |
| 197 | 2761.51980800163 | 2512.87939827364 | 3010.16021772961 |
| 198 | 3159.45509988438 | 2884.32834292071 | 3434.58185684806 |
| 199 | 3991.41730230639 | 3706.13597459557 | 4276.69863001721 |
