| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 0.30842644344129 |
| beta | 0 |
| gamma | 0.632760470780569 |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 13 | 2541 | 2393.50833868648 | 147.491661313523 |
| 14 | 2475 | 2389.75888889292 | 85.2411111070837 |
| 15 | 3031 | 2978.35640546918 | 52.6435945308167 |
| 16 | 3266 | 3224.57486167209 | 41.425138327912 |
| 17 | 3776 | 3723.43585246574 | 52.5641475342582 |
| 18 | 3230 | 3145.95647544954 | 84.0435245504614 |
| 19 | 3028 | 2495.85826039448 | 532.141739605515 |
| 20 | 1759 | 2615.11807012923 | -856.118070129231 |
| 21 | 3595 | 3130.25669910364 | 464.743300896364 |
| 22 | 4474 | 4811.13642911062 | -337.136429110617 |
| 23 | 6838 | 6258.72643224635 | 579.273567753655 |
| 24 | 8357 | 7934.66214742373 | 422.337852576273 |
| 25 | 3113 | 2940.7998191162 | 172.200180883797 |
| 26 | 3006 | 2897.56490597696 | 108.435094023038 |
| 27 | 4047 | 3580.3024470368 | 466.697552963203 |
| 28 | 3523 | 3995.14184564363 | -472.141845643626 |
| 29 | 3937 | 4423.91370452947 | -486.913704529466 |
| 30 | 3986 | 3610.94140603873 | 375.05859396127 |
| 31 | 3260 | 3148.77166912909 | 111.228330870912 |
| 32 | 1573 | 2417.20206583968 | -844.202065839685 |
| 33 | 3528 | 3625.51605483856 | -97.5160548385575 |
| 34 | 5211 | 4817.81581161119 | 393.184188388806 |
| 35 | 7614 | 7041.98015460674 | 572.019845393255 |
| 36 | 9254 | 8751.20258405828 | 502.797415941719 |
| 37 | 5375 | 3252.83865617398 | 2122.16134382602 |
| 38 | 3088 | 3742.2695559007 | -654.269555900696 |
| 39 | 3718 | 4483.8418231847 | -765.841823184696 |
| 40 | 4514 | 4085.64765089121 | 428.352349108791 |
| 41 | 4520 | 4861.68281614564 | -341.682816145635 |
| 42 | 4539 | 4410.85001290644 | 128.149987093557 |
| 43 | 3663 | 3653.35675591563 | 9.64324408436505 |
| 44 | 1643 | 2264.44617605372 | -621.446176053724 |
| 45 | 4739 | 4149.84148853392 | 589.158511466083 |
| 46 | 5428 | 6069.71709395816 | -641.717093958163 |
| 47 | 8314 | 8362.0605378331 | -48.0605378330911 |
| 48 | 10651 | 10014.2215488854 | 636.778451114596 |
| 49 | 3633 | 4500.74097486828 | -867.740974868284 |
| 50 | 4292 | 3013.42806246447 | 1278.57193753553 |
| 51 | 4154 | 4323.7759675356 | -169.775967535601 |
| 52 | 4121 | 4656.04329075914 | -535.043290759142 |
| 53 | 4647 | 4799.98302171796 | -152.983021717956 |
| 54 | 4753 | 4607.07333369408 | 145.926666305915 |
| 55 | 3965 | 3775.00500753416 | 189.994992465839 |
| 56 | 1723 | 2059.76462237556 | -336.764622375558 |
| 57 | 5048 | 4772.81180891231 | 275.18819108769 |
| 58 | 6922 | 6115.09205057554 | 806.907949424456 |
| 59 | 9858 | 9486.33781629 | 371.662183710003 |
| 60 | 11331 | 11851.8998112841 | -520.899811284056 |
| 61 | 4016 | 4563.38971079182 | -547.389710791824 |
| 62 | 3975 | 3997.45323471011 | -22.4532347101144 |
| 63 | 4510 | 4273.31838761804 | 236.681612381963 |
| 64 | 4276 | 4569.22285121982 | -293.222851219819 |
| 65 | 4968 | 4977.49285544872 | -9.49285544871782 |
| 66 | 4677 | 4956.23587445028 | -279.23587445028 |
| 67 | 3523 | 3982.17547180157 | -459.175471801574 |
| 68 | 1821 | 1867.74768227565 | -46.7476822756498 |
| 69 | 5222 | 5011.51465333456 | 210.485346665436 |
| 70 | 6873 | 6581.07120783537 | 291.928792164632 |
| 71 | 10803 | 9581.4265263545 | 1221.57347364551 |
| 72 | 13916 | 11851.0586219917 | 2064.94137800828 |
| 73 | 2639 | 4698.03096152302 | -2059.03096152302 |
| 74 | 2899 | 3899.80834532273 | -1000.80834532273 |
| 75 | 3370 | 3949.58307105529 | -579.583071055289 |
| 76 | 3740 | 3765.04537858081 | -25.0453785808081 |
| 77 | 2927 | 4299.35202261117 | -1372.35202261117 |
| 78 | 3986 | 3774.43180886483 | 211.56819113517 |
| 79 | 4217 | 3056.30994251208 | 1160.69005748792 |
| 80 | 1738 | 1733.49453705188 | 4.50546294811966 |
| 81 | 5221 | 4831.36712436927 | 389.632875630735 |
| 82 | 6424 | 6427.2259168487 | -3.22591684869803 |
| 83 | 9842 | 9545.7731737953 | 296.226826204693 |
| 84 | 13076 | 11678.2599047481 | 1397.7400952519 |
| 85 | 3934 | 3307.99996998548 | 626.00003001452 |
| 86 | 3162 | 3789.18182936661 | -627.181829366613 |
| 87 | 4286 | 4197.50763059483 | 88.4923694051668 |
| 88 | 4676 | 4504.02522974213 | 171.974770257874 |
| 89 | 5010 | 4413.97229349209 | 596.027706507914 |
| 90 | 4874 | 5413.85440538327 | -539.854405383268 |
| 91 | 4633 | 4676.36618707742 | -43.3661870774158 |
| 92 | 1659 | 2061.05277379123 | -402.052773791227 |
| 93 | 5951 | 5569.97297961752 | 381.02702038248 |
| 94 | 6981 | 7130.64581122766 | -149.645811227659 |
| 95 | 9851 | 10661.1481746792 | -810.148174679225 |
| 96 | 12670 | 13072.6379617398 | -402.637961739832 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 97 | 3630.21995369959 | 2669.58857082424 | 4590.85133657494 |
| 98 | 3366.47679616763 | 2338.43658224513 | 4394.51701009014 |
| 99 | 4293.27567688428 | 3113.51173388006 | 5473.03961988851 |
| 100 | 4610.16644881327 | 3330.65589931401 | 5889.67699831253 |
| 101 | 4642.1842342272 | 3301.71457351402 | 5982.65389494038 |
| 102 | 4941.06299304759 | 3499.41380801201 | 6382.71217808317 |
| 103 | 4592.60029404716 | 3162.74854334857 | 6022.45204474576 |
| 104 | 1853.22234945944 | 790.780915067565 | 2915.66378385131 |
| 105 | 6031.35494501676 | 3856.09754514589 | 8206.61234488763 |
| 106 | 7277.2503070181 | 4701.79916177352 | 9852.70145226268 |
| 107 | 10674.8187172446 | 7013.06511447682 | 14336.5723200123 |
| 108 | 13682.5704969335 | 9149.68328683926 | 18215.4577070277 |
