| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 0.326901016459753 |
| beta | 0.0446229444979951 |
| gamma | 0.91238775163749 |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 13 | 23899.3 | 21615.7486912393 | 2283.55130876068 |
| 14 | 21343.5 | 19874.1573879974 | 1469.34261200265 |
| 15 | 22952.3 | 22121.8258216281 | 830.474178371886 |
| 16 | 21374.4 | 21227.5285458716 | 146.871454128443 |
| 17 | 21164.1 | 21495.2199672658 | -331.119967265779 |
| 18 | 20906.5 | 21545.3420321796 | -638.842032179575 |
| 19 | 17877.4 | 19280.1713032421 | -1402.77130324211 |
| 20 | 20664.3 | 20084.9503596855 | 579.349640314478 |
| 21 | 22160 | 24532.7045728378 | -2372.70457283775 |
| 22 | 19813.6 | 24041.7304430732 | -4228.1304430732 |
| 23 | 17735.4 | 17970.5554293756 | -235.15542937558 |
| 24 | 19640.2 | 21777.4410602050 | -2137.24106020496 |
| 25 | 20844.4 | 23850.6933789375 | -3006.29337893752 |
| 26 | 19823.1 | 19714.5998937978 | 108.500106202198 |
| 27 | 18594.6 | 20939.9911905536 | -2345.39119055362 |
| 28 | 21350.6 | 18356.2841552187 | 2994.31584478128 |
| 29 | 18574.1 | 19071.3998930772 | -497.299893077179 |
| 30 | 18924.2 | 18685.9323628415 | 238.267637158515 |
| 31 | 17343.4 | 16058.84983214 | 1284.55016786001 |
| 32 | 19961.2 | 18819.1022081686 | 1142.09779183138 |
| 33 | 19932.1 | 21505.8020214568 | -1573.70202145675 |
| 34 | 19464.6 | 20016.1299424397 | -551.529942439676 |
| 35 | 16165.4 | 17532.2407550719 | -1366.84075507191 |
| 36 | 17574.9 | 19717.7529811395 | -2142.85298113946 |
| 37 | 19795.4 | 21172.0784989800 | -1376.67849898003 |
| 38 | 19439.5 | 19421.9755150343 | 17.5244849656592 |
| 39 | 17170 | 19049.6862691411 | -1879.68626914107 |
| 40 | 21072.4 | 19843.3327505371 | 1229.06724946287 |
| 41 | 17751.8 | 17757.1947173780 | -5.39471737795611 |
| 42 | 17515.5 | 17911.5433523241 | -396.043352324094 |
| 43 | 18040.3 | 15637.6814563228 | 2402.6185436772 |
| 44 | 19090.1 | 18610.2841249505 | 479.815875049546 |
| 45 | 17746.5 | 19337.3121830273 | -1590.81218302726 |
| 46 | 19202.1 | 18394.2165274608 | 807.88347253915 |
| 47 | 15141.6 | 15798.2725234051 | -656.672523405095 |
| 48 | 16258.1 | 17693.9847830826 | -1435.88478308255 |
| 49 | 18586.5 | 19814.8758977416 | -1228.37589774163 |
| 50 | 17209.4 | 18936.5629197668 | -1727.16291976681 |
| 51 | 17838.7 | 16770.4461412036 | 1068.25385879642 |
| 52 | 19123.5 | 20421.5914093451 | -1298.09140934514 |
| 53 | 16583.6 | 16698.9853570465 | -115.385357046503 |
| 54 | 15991.2 | 16523.6449667608 | -532.44496676078 |
| 55 | 16704.5 | 15868.113105563 | 836.38689443701 |
| 56 | 17422 | 17069.205713296 | 352.794286703993 |
| 57 | 17872 | 16402.5664394611 | 1469.43356053891 |
| 58 | 17823.2 | 17897.0986252003 | -73.8986252002796 |
| 59 | 13866.5 | 14064.7385634458 | -198.238563445804 |
| 60 | 15912.8 | 15589.7283407549 | 323.071659245112 |
| 61 | 17870.5 | 18396.6698562816 | -526.169856281551 |
| 62 | 15420.3 | 17435.4422031367 | -2015.14220313669 |
| 63 | 16379.4 | 16881.5777051103 | -502.177705110318 |
| 64 | 17903.9 | 18532.8531405357 | -628.953140535705 |
| 65 | 15305.8 | 15731.8250137122 | -426.025013712208 |
| 66 | 14583.3 | 15170.7810438640 | -587.481043864043 |
| 67 | 14861 | 15309.0644964530 | -448.064496453022 |
| 68 | 14968.9 | 15745.7142638718 | -776.814263871778 |
| 69 | 16726.5 | 15331.5185426636 | 1394.98145733641 |
| 70 | 16283.6 | 15788.7789360675 | 494.821063932515 |
| 71 | 11703.7 | 12009.1385039417 | -305.438503941714 |
| 72 | 15101.8 | 13760.8367102897 | 1340.96328971034 |
| 73 | 15469.7 | 16335.4353143074 | -865.735314307407 |
| 74 | 14956.9 | 14300.2811613617 | 656.618838638276 |
| 75 | 15370.6 | 15539.4408733427 | -168.840873342739 |
| 76 | 15998.1 | 17217.1607413557 | -1219.06074135574 |
| 77 | 14725.1 | 14334.5740031767 | 390.525996823339 |
| 78 | 14768.9 | 13939.9425679843 | 828.95743201572 |
| 79 | 13659.6 | 14646.1784245800 | -986.578424580044 |
| 80 | 15070.3 | 14716.3355113673 | 353.964488632695 |
| 81 | 16942.6 | 16033.4887465577 | 909.111253442334 |
| 82 | 15761.3 | 15799.9543649097 | -38.6543649097457 |
| 83 | 12083 | 11367.5268237749 | 715.473176225085 |
| 84 | 15023.6 | 14492.0224358100 | 531.577564189965 |
| 85 | 15106.5 | 15462.9916007743 | -356.491600774285 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 86 | 14552.8107790734 | 12052.6975542549 | 17052.9240038918 |
| 87 | 15084.3873670457 | 12442.5184668802 | 17726.2562672113 |
| 88 | 16188.7993194076 | 13400.9723036746 | 18976.6263351406 |
| 89 | 14727.4651605765 | 11789.6512128949 | 17665.2791082581 |
| 90 | 14502.9756426821 | 11411.3020906068 | 17594.6491947574 |
| 91 | 13839.7147201253 | 10590.4496868918 | 17088.9797533587 |
| 92 | 15086.5010794512 | 11676.0400249482 | 18496.9621339542 |
| 93 | 16654.5621739534 | 13079.4160931364 | 20229.7082547704 |
| 94 | 15554.2166678874 | 11811.0017337425 | 19297.4316020324 |
| 95 | 11610.5464054532 | 7695.97486585012 | 15525.1179450564 |
| 96 | 14390.7718280814 | 10301.6439885672 | 18479.8996675956 |
| 97 | 14637.3800118069 | 10370.577158009 | 18904.1828656049 |
