| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 0.543073214984479 |
| beta | 0 |
| gamma | 0.942604207416955 |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 13 | 600 | 592.908070200467 | 7.09192979953343 |
| 14 | 566 | 562.675109199843 | 3.32489080015671 |
| 15 | 653 | 651.15087957216 | 1.84912042784015 |
| 16 | 673 | 672.385187611159 | 0.614812388841187 |
| 17 | 742 | 742.118596249891 | -0.118596249891425 |
| 18 | 716 | 716.179878460986 | -0.179878460985719 |
| 19 | 660 | 655.035058916818 | 4.96494108318177 |
| 20 | 617 | 616.172022332151 | 0.827977667849382 |
| 21 | 583 | 585.175810628719 | -2.17581062871932 |
| 22 | 587 | 593.241738957405 | -6.24173895740535 |
| 23 | 565 | 565.242426375484 | -0.242426375484001 |
| 24 | 598 | 594.587838567348 | 3.41216143265228 |
| 25 | 628 | 617.660894167636 | 10.3391058323645 |
| 26 | 618 | 586.12205365317 | 31.8779463468305 |
| 27 | 688 | 695.083053932834 | -7.08305393283376 |
| 28 | 705 | 712.00928700475 | -7.00928700475049 |
| 29 | 770 | 780.822628390711 | -10.8226283907111 |
| 30 | 736 | 747.829951993133 | -11.8299519931327 |
| 31 | 678 | 680.4307426735 | -2.43074267349982 |
| 32 | 639 | 634.469247222763 | 4.53075277723656 |
| 33 | 604 | 603.09153433594 | 0.908465664059918 |
| 34 | 611 | 611.287395187533 | -0.287395187532752 |
| 35 | 594 | 588.160001045539 | 5.83999895446141 |
| 36 | 634 | 623.768701257599 | 10.231298742401 |
| 37 | 658 | 654.692445184553 | 3.30755481544702 |
| 38 | 622 | 626.86819115501 | -4.86819115500964 |
| 39 | 709 | 699.916926839331 | 9.08307316066873 |
| 40 | 722 | 726.108374499949 | -4.10837449994870 |
| 41 | 782 | 796.660131966902 | -14.660131966902 |
| 42 | 756 | 760.41120544434 | -4.41120544433943 |
| 43 | 702 | 699.369743321413 | 2.63025667858676 |
| 44 | 653 | 657.709257002431 | -4.70925700243072 |
| 45 | 615 | 618.821664359513 | -3.82166435951342 |
| 46 | 621 | 624.06050307681 | -3.06050307681016 |
| 47 | 602 | 601.652046878822 | 0.347953121177738 |
| 48 | 635 | 636.575918895763 | -1.57591889576349 |
| 49 | 677 | 658.167822388423 | 18.8321776115770 |
| 50 | 635 | 634.697377200639 | 0.302622799361302 |
| 51 | 736 | 718.180077266758 | 17.8199227332416 |
| 52 | 755 | 743.812051181113 | 11.1879488188871 |
| 53 | 811 | 820.627879480584 | -9.62787948058406 |
| 54 | 798 | 790.451592607766 | 7.54840739223368 |
| 55 | 735 | 736.040719264392 | -1.04071926439156 |
| 56 | 697 | 686.947574728143 | 10.0524252718571 |
| 57 | 661 | 654.220440285998 | 6.77955971400172 |
| 58 | 667 | 665.98996645336 | 1.01003354664010 |
| 59 | 645 | 645.765238012644 | -0.765238012643636 |
| 60 | 688 | 681.610128646281 | 6.38987135371906 |
| 61 | 713 | 718.54573242353 | -5.54573242353035 |
| 62 | 667 | 671.382809275995 | -4.38280927599465 |
| 63 | 762 | 764.55251513966 | -2.55251513965936 |
| 64 | 784 | 776.664387935416 | 7.3356120645841 |
| 65 | 837 | 844.467654597554 | -7.46765459755409 |
| 66 | 817 | 822.162171354625 | -5.16217135462534 |
| 67 | 767 | 755.431926651043 | 11.5680733489567 |
| 68 | 722 | 716.294885326516 | 5.7051146734841 |
| 69 | 681 | 678.4544662217 | 2.54553377830007 |
| 70 | 687 | 685.566416832414 | 1.43358316758554 |
| 71 | 660 | 664.148090676016 | -4.14809067601630 |
| 72 | 698 | 702.220824469723 | -4.22082446972263 |
| 73 | 717 | 728.719095313762 | -11.7190953137621 |
| 74 | 696 | 678.118719898638 | 17.8812801013617 |
| 75 | 775 | 787.115225888424 | -12.115225888424 |
| 76 | 796 | 798.673109592635 | -2.67310959263477 |
| 77 | 858 | 855.607145487772 | 2.39285451222838 |
| 78 | 826 | 839.201553386458 | -13.2015533864578 |
| 79 | 783 | 774.21073743258 | 8.78926256742068 |
| 80 | 740 | 730.240182737651 | 9.75981726234852 |
| 81 | 701 | 692.414074678258 | 8.58592532174225 |
| 82 | 706 | 702.423128848135 | 3.57687115186491 |
| 83 | 677 | 679.106348228755 | -2.10634822875500 |
| 84 | 711 | 719.307570259149 | -8.30757025914886 |
| 85 | 734 | 740.89241068307 | -6.89241068307058 |
| 86 | 690 | 704.646437861595 | -14.6464378615949 |
| 87 | 785 | 783.156389344274 | 1.84361065572625 |
| 88 | 805 | 806.597028246051 | -1.59702824605085 |
| 89 | 871 | 867.012791603072 | 3.98720839692839 |
| 90 | 845 | 844.368127824755 | 0.63187217524478 |
| 91 | 801 | 795.233144593094 | 5.76685540690562 |
| 92 | 764 | 749.020372554303 | 14.9796274456974 |
| 93 | 725 | 712.443225189428 | 12.5567748105716 |
| 94 | 723 | 722.499745711662 | 0.500254288338169 |
| 95 | 690 | 694.373597821263 | -4.37359782126293 |
| 96 | 734 | 731.476601492216 | 2.52339850778390 |
| 97 | 750 | 760.311698581786 | -10.3116985817862 |
| 98 | 707 | 717.75969675123 | -10.7596967512300 |
| 99 | 807 | 808.358064246905 | -1.35806424690509 |
| 100 | 824 | 829.142850633479 | -5.14285063347859 |
| 101 | 886 | 891.680234931396 | -5.6802349313956 |
| 102 | 859 | 861.777433184102 | -2.77743318410239 |
| 103 | 819 | 812.113180557159 | 6.88681944284099 |
| 104 | 783 | 769.53196049704 | 13.4680395029595 |
| 105 | 740 | 730.22423410209 | 9.77576589790942 |
| 106 | 747 | 733.530490323992 | 13.4695096760082 |
| 107 | 711 | 709.560407516763 | 1.43959248323665 |
| 108 | 751 | 753.997723643214 | -2.99772364321382 |
| 109 | 804 | 774.792489545268 | 29.2075104547318 |
| 110 | 756 | 751.406648923372 | 4.59335107662798 |
| 111 | 860 | 860.92687768821 | -0.926877688210311 |
| 112 | 878 | 881.53297202236 | -3.53297202236070 |
| 113 | 942 | 948.987056508297 | -6.98705650829743 |
| 114 | 913 | 917.823590153726 | -4.82359015372572 |
| 115 | 869 | 868.232926442888 | 0.767073557111758 |
| 116 | 834 | 822.380390954156 | 11.6196090458437 |
| 117 | 790 | 777.539364537388 | 12.4606354626115 |
| 118 | 800 | 783.736877327323 | 16.2631226726775 |
| 119 | 763 | 753.78907557948 | 9.2109244205193 |
| 120 | 800 | 803.260033992059 | -3.26003399205877 |
| 121 | 826 | 839.865356207762 | -13.8653562077620 |
| 122 | 799 | 780.630921106658 | 18.3690788933424 |
| 123 | 890 | 900.000836757672 | -10.0008367576717 |
| 124 | 900 | 915.30106789176 | -15.30106789176 |
| 125 | 961 | 977.049767831213 | -16.0497678312128 |
| 126 | 935 | 941.116867018099 | -6.11686701809879 |
| 127 | 894 | 891.991057625785 | 2.00894237421505 |
| 128 | 855 | 850.258525809465 | 4.74147419053497 |
| 129 | 809 | 800.803363932153 | 8.19663606784673 |
| 130 | 810 | 806.24057709271 | 3.75942290729017 |
| 131 | 766 | 765.97060307373 | 0.0293969262697829 |
| 132 | 805 | 805.241335560175 | -0.241335560175344 |
| 133 | 821 | 839.068420765764 | -18.0684207657645 |
| 134 | 773 | 791.198102094539 | -18.1981020945386 |
| 135 | 883 | 876.400024648074 | 6.59997535192565 |
| 136 | 898 | 898.175914936503 | -0.175914936502636 |
| 137 | 957 | 967.578166740362 | -10.5781667403616 |
| 138 | 924 | 938.875067244273 | -14.8750672442733 |
| 139 | 881 | 888.695391228737 | -7.69539122873698 |
| 140 | 837 | 843.316507441881 | -6.3165074418813 |
| 141 | 784 | 790.232524074934 | -6.23252407493419 |
| 142 | 791 | 785.976506509112 | 5.02349349088797 |
| 143 | 760 | 745.96585423561 | 14.0341457643897 |
| 144 | 802 | 792.110850113679 | 9.8891498863212 |
| 145 | 828 | 823.43607447443 | 4.56392552557088 |
| 146 | 778 | 787.488837287769 | -9.48883728776889 |
| 147 | 889 | 889.285364221146 | -0.285364221145642 |
| 148 | 902 | 904.502971731331 | -2.50297173133129 |
| 149 | 969 | 968.497587179644 | 0.502412820355744 |
| 150 | 947 | 943.590261965579 | 3.40973803442125 |
| 151 | 908 | 905.497653209536 | 2.50234679046389 |
| 152 | 867 | 865.019649353961 | 1.98035064603869 |
| 153 | 815 | 814.709263500261 | 0.290736499738955 |
| 154 | 812 | 818.94420448093 | -6.9442044809307 |
| 155 | 773 | 775.022497769282 | -2.02249776928250 |
| 156 | 813 | 811.301589630045 | 1.69841036995535 |
| 157 | 834 | 836.172248665732 | -2.17224866573179 |
| 158 | 782 | 790.094904179485 | -8.0949041794845 |
| 159 | 892 | 897.661302294342 | -5.66130229434202 |
| 160 | 903 | 909.08458954487 | -6.08458954486991 |
| 161 | 966 | 972.696941830527 | -6.69694183052695 |
| 162 | 937 | 945.12723725248 | -8.12723725248054 |
| 163 | 896 | 900.649624293677 | -4.64962429367711 |
| 164 | 858 | 856.530100380542 | 1.46989961945769 |
| 165 | 817 | 805.806446754375 | 11.1935532456254 |
| 166 | 827 | 812.833484526553 | 14.1665154734470 |
| 167 | 797 | 782.092396791722 | 14.9076032082784 |
| 168 | 843 | 830.004766984475 | 12.9952330155248 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 169 | 859.965927621504 | 843.238841266743 | 876.693013976266 |
| 170 | 810.98708162045 | 792.09352128844 | 829.880641952461 |
| 171 | 928.097269904348 | 905.8662452846 | 950.328294524096 |
| 172 | 942.925120844953 | 918.633977747132 | 967.216263942775 |
| 173 | 1012.43762506758 | 985.298948759301 | 1039.57630137586 |
| 174 | 986.628582685448 | 958.438389422891 | 1014.81877594800 |
| 175 | 945.95184357546 | 917.115705019858 | 974.787982131064 |
| 176 | 904.754344682149 | 875.386750698343 | 934.121938665954 |
| 177 | 854.73436119912 | 825.140830834817 | 884.327891563422 |
| 178 | 856.950066463488 | 825.895357093098 | 888.004775833877 |
| 179 | 817.325811868334 | 786.025358698467 | 848.6262650382 |
| 180 | 857.252613110201 | 825.341492581997 | 889.163733638406 |
