| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 0.0417042970576116 |
| beta | 0.236464322500064 |
| gamma | 0.389615920130008 |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 13 | 19969 | 19924.8509615385 | 44.1490384615245 |
| 14 | 21701 | 21437.2682796208 | 263.731720379161 |
| 15 | 26249 | 25911.3606167889 | 337.639383211073 |
| 16 | 24493 | 24231.0732116472 | 261.926788352805 |
| 17 | 24603 | 24587.2946108369 | 15.7053891631185 |
| 18 | 26485 | 26546.6107329119 | -61.6107329118859 |
| 19 | 30723 | 25566.4281947281 | 5156.57180527188 |
| 20 | 34569 | 34405.1765614212 | 163.823438578773 |
| 21 | 26689 | 25186.5714247708 | 1502.42857522918 |
| 22 | 26157 | 29714.1498581573 | -3557.14985815730 |
| 23 | 32064 | 34816.6013508793 | -2752.60135087927 |
| 24 | 38870 | 38703.8359796606 | 166.164020339413 |
| 25 | 21337 | 21143.2097783096 | 193.790221690389 |
| 26 | 19419 | 22760.522964851 | -3341.52296485098 |
| 27 | 23166 | 27092.9720931864 | -3926.97209318636 |
| 28 | 28286 | 25145.624361561 | 3140.37563843899 |
| 29 | 24570 | 25497.405387452 | -927.405387452018 |
| 30 | 24001 | 27346.6688183811 | -3345.66881838112 |
| 31 | 33151 | 28103.5858669895 | 5047.41413301054 |
| 32 | 24878 | 34998.3370284753 | -10120.3370284753 |
| 33 | 26804 | 25673.8954159694 | 1130.10458403063 |
| 34 | 28967 | 28116.4595623729 | 850.540437627114 |
| 35 | 33311 | 33566.1837072657 | -255.183707265744 |
| 36 | 40226 | 38535.0322517211 | 1690.96774827888 |
| 37 | 20504 | 20951.0380417289 | -447.038041728905 |
| 38 | 23060 | 21118.0625574781 | 1941.93744252192 |
| 39 | 23562 | 25400.7772352218 | -1838.77723522178 |
| 40 | 27562 | 26148.3354572479 | 1413.66454275213 |
| 41 | 23940 | 24861.4038320330 | -921.403832032975 |
| 42 | 24584 | 25760.1512279307 | -1176.15122793065 |
| 43 | 34303 | 29714.7778225528 | 4588.22217744715 |
| 44 | 25517 | 30896.2375642800 | -5379.23756428004 |
| 45 | 23494 | 25985.8220585579 | -2491.8220585579 |
| 46 | 29095 | 28152.9935916037 | 942.00640839626 |
| 47 | 32903 | 33174.6304539567 | -271.630453956706 |
| 48 | 34379 | 38850.1995380444 | -4471.19953804443 |
| 49 | 16991 | 20130.9636085841 | -3139.96360858411 |
| 50 | 21109 | 20971.0987993930 | 137.901200607033 |
| 51 | 23740 | 23642.6436883774 | 97.3563116225669 |
| 52 | 25552 | 25580.0569757276 | -28.0569757276498 |
| 53 | 21752 | 23241.6983276031 | -1489.69832760314 |
| 54 | 20294 | 23896.5638280095 | -3602.56382800948 |
| 55 | 29009 | 29753.2314133507 | -744.231413350717 |
| 56 | 25500 | 26789.1998708837 | -1289.19987088374 |
| 57 | 24166 | 22966.1752589144 | 1199.82474108557 |
| 58 | 26960 | 26444.5412489753 | 515.458751024737 |
| 59 | 31222 | 30866.2083247087 | 355.791675291282 |
| 60 | 38641 | 34877.1007254119 | 3763.89927458807 |
| 61 | 14672 | 16956.6935179304 | -2284.69351793037 |
| 62 | 17543 | 19023.1286695400 | -1480.12866954005 |
| 63 | 25453 | 21562.8844113156 | 3890.11558868438 |
| 64 | 32683 | 23599.8772206050 | 9083.12277939496 |
| 65 | 22449 | 21173.8458809841 | 1275.15411901591 |
| 66 | 22316 | 21260.4896022979 | 1055.51039770208 |
| 67 | 27595 | 28529.9094106494 | -934.90941064943 |
| 68 | 25451 | 25503.8547735041 | -52.8547735040884 |
| 69 | 25421 | 22823.3060614139 | 2597.69393858611 |
| 70 | 25288 | 26279.8292364979 | -991.82923649788 |
| 71 | 32568 | 30739.5371174752 | 1828.46288252484 |
| 72 | 35110 | 36259.3605514502 | -1149.36055145023 |
| 73 | 16052 | 16002.2887823158 | 49.7112176841747 |
| 74 | 22146 | 18616.0837481661 | 3529.91625183393 |
| 75 | 21198 | 23568.8671685197 | -2370.86716851967 |
| 76 | 19543 | 27420.9196792999 | -7877.91967929986 |
| 77 | 22084 | 21342.3081661458 | 741.691833854205 |
| 78 | 23816 | 21289.4437234091 | 2526.55627659088 |
| 79 | 29961 | 27856.3089864919 | 2104.69101350815 |
| 80 | 26773 | 25295.5784455656 | 1477.42155443435 |
| 81 | 26635 | 23692.7972598622 | 2942.20274013776 |
| 82 | 26972 | 25851.1952051471 | 1120.80479485288 |
| 83 | 30207 | 31500.5653688285 | -1293.56536882849 |
| 84 | 38687 | 35796.128519343 | 2890.87148065702 |
| 85 | 16974 | 16212.8524878368 | 761.14751216318 |
| 86 | 21697 | 20220.3344713369 | 1476.66552866307 |
| 87 | 24179 | 22928.7033131476 | 1250.29668685243 |
| 88 | 23757 | 24955.7053393662 | -1198.70533936620 |
| 89 | 25013 | 22519.8786516365 | 2493.12134836352 |
| 90 | 24019 | 23369.6902909646 | 649.309709035435 |
| 91 | 30345 | 29845.4670083883 | 499.532991611715 |
| 92 | 24488 | 27112.4745894691 | -2624.47458946912 |
| 93 | 25156 | 25973.9588685829 | -817.958868582908 |
| 94 | 25650 | 27346.8412441745 | -1696.84124417454 |
| 95 | 30923 | 32000.8199366293 | -1077.81993662930 |
| 96 | 37240 | 37893.4031727671 | -653.403172767066 |
| 97 | 17466 | 17357.8851532992 | 108.114846700802 |
| 98 | 19463 | 21589.5826406051 | -2126.58264060513 |
| 99 | 24352 | 24011.9268908782 | 340.073109121793 |
| 100 | 26805 | 25026.3803153584 | 1778.61968464160 |
| 101 | 25236 | 24062.2780352953 | 1173.72196470474 |
| 102 | 24735 | 24124.7847249024 | 610.215275097609 |
| 103 | 29356 | 30498.7623583523 | -1142.76235835233 |
| 104 | 31234 | 26470.4344296548 | 4763.56557034523 |
| 105 | 22724 | 26326.9407162732 | -3602.94071627317 |
| 106 | 28496 | 27240.4823160840 | 1255.51768391603 |
| 107 | 32857 | 32262.7751126759 | 594.22488732406 |
| 108 | 37198 | 38414.1078886004 | -1216.10788860044 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 109 | 18164.4541664621 | 12951.2624902006 | 23377.6458427235 |
| 110 | 21581.2193387063 | 16361.1012224965 | 26801.3374549161 |
| 111 | 25058.1306091692 | 19828.1992157850 | 30288.0620025534 |
| 112 | 26637.0649446328 | 21393.9455307793 | 31880.1843584863 |
| 113 | 25396.9548026993 | 20136.7955265972 | 30657.1140788014 |
| 114 | 25212.5597691908 | 19931.0456223646 | 30494.073916017 |
| 115 | 30913.0091345565 | 25605.3792072792 | 36220.6390618339 |
| 116 | 29155.2630252755 | 23816.3312095569 | 34494.194840994 |
| 117 | 25660.0465689715 | 20284.2256842577 | 31035.8674536853 |
| 118 | 28544.0842274662 | 23125.4134275980 | 33962.7550273344 |
| 119 | 33260.9787127834 | 27793.1539049769 | 38728.80352059 |
| 120 | 38699.6180223018 | 33176.0249076164 | 44223.2111369873 |
