| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 0.294870697455103 |
| beta | 0 |
| gamma | 0.335511814386048 |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 13 | 70249 | 71014.3015814803 | -765.301581480278 |
| 14 | 39253 | 39703.6268082511 | -450.626808251065 |
| 15 | 47060 | 47620.1628926628 | -560.162892662767 |
| 16 | 41697 | 41970.8422031604 | -273.842203160399 |
| 17 | 38708 | 38645.1080777618 | 62.891922238181 |
| 18 | 49267 | 48936.740287549 | 330.259712451036 |
| 19 | 39018 | 39927.344520585 | -909.344520585044 |
| 20 | 32228 | 35294.5427433688 | -3066.54274336876 |
| 21 | 40870 | 40022.9121377387 | 847.087862261258 |
| 22 | 39383 | 35879.4146800044 | 3503.58531999561 |
| 23 | 34571 | 30989.1060235841 | 3581.89397641593 |
| 24 | 12066 | 11505.5372144255 | 560.462785574548 |
| 25 | 70938 | 71920.8782040774 | -982.878204077395 |
| 26 | 34077 | 40171.8003070546 | -6094.80030705463 |
| 27 | 45409 | 46173.4577239264 | -764.457723926447 |
| 28 | 40809 | 40686.3018647619 | 122.698135238097 |
| 29 | 37013 | 37638.4924524002 | -625.492452400198 |
| 30 | 44953 | 47459.781724517 | -2506.78172451699 |
| 31 | 37848 | 37772.9044671905 | 75.0955328094569 |
| 32 | 32745 | 33102.5281638041 | -357.528163804076 |
| 33 | 43412 | 39422.5611924731 | 3989.43880752695 |
| 34 | 34931 | 36799.3932356376 | -1868.39323563762 |
| 35 | 33008 | 30547.6848110767 | 2460.31518892329 |
| 36 | 8620 | 11062.1518262835 | -2442.15182628345 |
| 37 | 68906 | 62794.0535964349 | 6111.94640356513 |
| 38 | 39556 | 34971.503477011 | 4584.49652298904 |
| 39 | 50669 | 45231.2526889601 | 5437.74731103993 |
| 40 | 36432 | 41666.9976341778 | -5234.99763417777 |
| 41 | 40891 | 36910.6674189083 | 3980.33258109174 |
| 42 | 48428 | 47836.9858478707 | 591.014152129268 |
| 43 | 36222 | 39337.2966219577 | -3115.2966219577 |
| 44 | 33425 | 33547.8765998168 | -122.876599816846 |
| 45 | 39401 | 41074.9660311752 | -1673.96603117516 |
| 46 | 37967 | 35507.6149510525 | 2459.38504894752 |
| 47 | 34801 | 31487.5808823154 | 3313.41911768465 |
| 48 | 12657 | 10644.3845332745 | 2012.61546672553 |
| 49 | 69116 | 73910.5935551122 | -4794.59355511224 |
| 50 | 41519 | 39543.5576027162 | 1975.4423972838 |
| 51 | 51321 | 49857.8050458555 | 1463.19495414446 |
| 52 | 38529 | 42204.0291188827 | -3675.02911888271 |
| 53 | 41547 | 40002.5172208566 | 1544.48277914341 |
| 54 | 52073 | 49740.3383356219 | 2332.66166437809 |
| 55 | 38401 | 40411.0985281166 | -2010.09852811658 |
| 56 | 40898 | 35423.5362718544 | 5474.46372814564 |
| 57 | 40439 | 45002.3170290945 | -4563.31702909454 |
| 58 | 41888 | 39201.2283729962 | 2686.77162700382 |
| 59 | 37898 | 35038.3879982073 | 2859.61200179267 |
| 60 | 8771 | 11975.9237638124 | -3204.92376381236 |
| 61 | 68184 | 68503.046550077 | -319.046550076993 |
| 62 | 50530 | 38345.0683665535 | 12184.9316334465 |
| 63 | 47221 | 51867.2284269123 | -4646.22842691231 |
| 64 | 41756 | 41198.6804452804 | 557.319554719601 |
| 65 | 45633 | 41481.2874943403 | 4151.71250565973 |
| 66 | 48138 | 52607.778993799 | -4469.77899379899 |
| 67 | 39486 | 40171.5547271417 | -685.554727141694 |
| 68 | 39341 | 37247.3086862323 | 2093.69131376772 |
| 69 | 41117 | 43352.2661640744 | -2235.26616407436 |
| 70 | 41629 | 39932.9991157608 | 1696.00088423921 |
| 71 | 29722 | 35526.4441982979 | -5804.44419829791 |
| 72 | 7054 | 10314.2408547113 | -3260.24085471126 |
| 73 | 56676 | 62287.7597579446 | -5611.75975794459 |
| 74 | 34870 | 36352.8819143467 | -1482.88191434673 |
| 75 | 35117 | 40637.7685070525 | -5520.7685070525 |
| 76 | 30169 | 32621.1230168432 | -2452.12301684317 |
| 77 | 30936 | 32601.4141913804 | -1665.4141913804 |
| 78 | 35699 | 37842.7973402739 | -2143.79734027387 |
| 79 | 33228 | 29616.4503759735 | 3611.54962402645 |
| 80 | 27733 | 29066.4756103698 | -1333.47561036981 |
| 81 | 33666 | 31982.050264853 | 1683.94973514697 |
| 82 | 35429 | 31046.3752410864 | 4382.62475891363 |
| 83 | 27438 | 26978.3818160336 | 459.618183966417 |
| 84 | 8170 | 7906.20965555718 | 263.790344442824 |
| 85 | 62557 | 56671.5052144505 | 5885.49478554955 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 86 | 35451.1508373075 | 31927.6332018599 | 38974.6684727551 |
| 87 | 39151.3428639503 | 35016.2000559349 | 43286.4856719656 |
| 88 | 33260.6384321544 | 28949.6855539223 | 37571.5913103864 |
| 89 | 34204.0790119888 | 29404.811287465 | 39003.3467365126 |
| 90 | 40262.592063451 | 34559.8059891378 | 45965.3781377641 |
| 91 | 33401.0490928612 | 28019.2216438651 | 38782.8765418572 |
| 92 | 30451.3929428878 | 25026.3894540824 | 35876.3964316932 |
| 93 | 34770.8208960144 | 28468.6047595033 | 41073.0370325255 |
| 94 | 33892.3442528095 | 27401.2818487994 | 40383.4066568195 |
| 95 | 27507.0715096104 | 21623.3403105611 | 33390.8027086598 |
| 96 | 8051.46932340965 | 4223.14829219649 | 11879.7903546228 |
| 97 | 58059.157546211 | 40259.0820238048 | 75859.2330686172 |
