Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
Parameter | Value |
alpha | 0.609943620608653 |
beta | 0.0462444503125317 |
gamma | 1 |
Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
13 | 386918 | 376360.299665169 | 10557.7003348314 |
14 | 293009 | 289731.696569409 | 3277.30343059078 |
15 | 294822 | 293478.974616221 | 1343.02538377937 |
16 | 338844 | 338379.351246054 | 464.648753945658 |
17 | 335407 | 335908.876911778 | -501.87691177841 |
18 | 345080 | 345972.14221899 | -892.142218990135 |
19 | 350608 | 342181.790690353 | 8426.20930964651 |
20 | 351285 | 355281.568763131 | -3996.56876313133 |
21 | 355147 | 352151.436263208 | 2995.56373679161 |
22 | 332791 | 340899.140389615 | -8108.14038961509 |
23 | 335615 | 342896.785248752 | -7281.78524875152 |
24 | 343202 | 343402.26748632 | -200.267486320168 |
25 | 404868 | 414078.702641918 | -9210.70264191797 |
26 | 317902 | 306803.830044844 | 11098.1699551563 |
27 | 313552 | 314423.957074853 | -871.957074853068 |
28 | 361505 | 360156.302375839 | 1348.69762416102 |
29 | 351436 | 357366.985262714 | -5930.98526271351 |
30 | 373350 | 364109.144154601 | 9240.85584539914 |
31 | 366310 | 369945.869336141 | -3635.8693361411 |
32 | 361669 | 370513.342069944 | -8844.34206994408 |
33 | 375078 | 366647.4073439 | 8430.59265609964 |
34 | 345547 | 353091.213458242 | -7544.21345824172 |
35 | 348117 | 355653.086272872 | -7536.08627287159 |
36 | 356089 | 358710.381447685 | -2621.38144768518 |
37 | 416856 | 426514.604984097 | -9658.60498409742 |
38 | 328087 | 322716.942131211 | 5370.05786878947 |
39 | 322747 | 321506.41636454 | 1240.58363545983 |
40 | 373626 | 370113.706071517 | 3512.29392848274 |
41 | 358275 | 365068.816707848 | -6793.81670784816 |
42 | 391287 | 377028.845898754 | 14258.1541012464 |
43 | 376371 | 380304.41728973 | -3933.4172897301 |
44 | 371848 | 378199.162177427 | -6351.16217742715 |
45 | 387261 | 382466.89280015 | 4794.10719984985 |
46 | 353159 | 359304.322000702 | -6145.32200070168 |
47 | 367855 | 362493.575268288 | 5361.42473171209 |
48 | 376822 | 375752.043364205 | 1069.95663579466 |
49 | 425283 | 446851.918075464 | -21568.9180754641 |
50 | 342191 | 337711.949702172 | 4479.05029782781 |
51 | 344062 | 333893.379549709 | 10168.620450291 |
52 | 373587 | 391451.394660793 | -17864.3946607932 |
53 | 370144 | 368582.329060007 | 1561.67093999306 |
54 | 399979 | 394159.361088204 | 5819.63891179592 |
55 | 380431 | 384442.248971058 | -4011.24897105753 |
56 | 385909 | 380781.022678237 | 5127.97732176317 |
57 | 384798 | 396551.243097282 | -11753.2430972824 |
58 | 352554 | 358227.375240229 | -5673.37524022942 |
59 | 352479 | 365613.750351211 | -13134.7503512112 |
60 | 338788 | 364578.213513894 | -25790.2135138935 |
61 | 387964 | 403581.811297175 | -15617.8112971753 |
62 | 313593 | 312959.721236728 | 633.278763271926 |
63 | 304056 | 307691.410354691 | -3635.41035469063 |
64 | 334149 | 339013.438628454 | -4864.43862845434 |
65 | 336155 | 330236.976426515 | 5918.0235734848 |
66 | 354668 | 355689.184978092 | -1021.18497809226 |
67 | 351418 | 337962.467385161 | 13455.532614839 |
68 | 354316 | 346829.130041056 | 7486.86995894386 |
69 | 359483 | 355431.995505037 | 4051.00449496263 |
70 | 330411 | 330179.588057195 | 231.411942805222 |
71 | 344726 | 336851.399300696 | 7874.60069930443 |
72 | 347175 | 342944.736818311 | 4230.26318168867 |
Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
73 | 405916.737669491 | 389639.951184706 | 422193.524154277 |
74 | 328618.97028998 | 310301.144704528 | 346936.795875432 |
75 | 321820.044157382 | 300796.643294615 | 342843.445020149 |
76 | 357901.479217663 | 332677.759701704 | 383125.198733622 |
77 | 357418.372030887 | 329592.686698973 | 385244.057362802 |
78 | 378902.98322812 | 347184.870629806 | 410621.095826434 |
79 | 367668.330534595 | 334188.979826332 | 401147.681242857 |
80 | 366597.460273037 | 330674.996465697 | 402519.924080377 |
81 | 369869.040521126 | 331148.102502673 | 408589.978539579 |
82 | 340155.506141098 | 301696.013171721 | 378614.999110475 |
83 | 350250.268980912 | 308275.894278327 | 392224.643683497 |
84 | 350222.167644986 | 308831.778803132 | 391612.556486839 |