Seasonal Decomposition by Loess - Parameters | |||
Component | Window | Degree | Jump |
Seasonal | 1441 | 0 | 145 |
Trend | 19 | 1 | 2 |
Low-pass | 13 | 1 | 2 |
Seasonal Decomposition by Loess - Time Series Components | |||||
t | Observed | Fitted | Seasonal | Trend | Remainder |
1 | 112 | 122.310369902516 | -25.4977183397736 | 127.187348437257 | 10.3103699025161 |
2 | 118 | 144.571402815284 | -35.2209348015702 | 126.649531986286 | 26.5714028152841 |
3 | 132 | 140.915762476461 | -3.02747801177543 | 126.111715535315 | 8.91576247646078 |
4 | 129 | 140.100122400179 | -8.29905418525078 | 126.198931785072 | 11.1001224001792 |
5 | 121 | 121.451140778362 | -5.73728881319017 | 126.286148034828 | 0.451140778361719 |
6 | 135 | 110.930342781525 | 32.3366341296942 | 126.733023088781 | -24.0696572184753 |
7 | 148 | 98.5762203202533 | 70.243881537013 | 127.179898142734 | -49.4237796797467 |
8 | 148 | 100.53435082393 | 68.0494327275685 | 127.416216448501 | -47.4656491760699 |
9 | 136 | 126.909139208349 | 17.4383260373817 | 127.652534754269 | -9.09086079165087 |
10 | 119 | 130.044842451944 | -21.0634315333585 | 129.018589081415 | 11.0448424519439 |
11 | 104 | 135.097207105093 | -57.4818505136532 | 130.38464340856 | 31.0972071050931 |
12 | 118 | 135.378679881299 | -31.7405155016501 | 132.361835620351 | 17.3786798812987 |
13 | 115 | 121.158690507631 | -25.4977183397736 | 134.339027832143 | 6.15869050763092 |
14 | 126 | 152.112577072273 | -35.2209348015702 | 135.108357729297 | 26.1125770722728 |
15 | 141 | 149.149790385323 | -3.02747801177543 | 135.877687626452 | 8.14979038532329 |
16 | 135 | 142.353648187575 | -8.29905418525078 | 135.945405997676 | 7.35364818757489 |
17 | 125 | 119.724164444291 | -5.73728881319017 | 136.013124368900 | -5.27583555570945 |
18 | 149 | 128.454045572825 | 32.3366341296942 | 137.209320297481 | -20.5459544271750 |
19 | 170 | 131.350602236925 | 70.243881537013 | 138.405516226062 | -38.6493977630751 |
20 | 170 | 130.639161271251 | 68.0494327275685 | 141.311406001181 | -39.3608387287493 |
21 | 158 | 154.344378186319 | 17.4383260373817 | 144.217295776299 | -3.65562181368119 |
22 | 133 | 138.726366614332 | -21.0634315333585 | 148.337064919027 | 5.7263666143316 |
23 | 114 | 133.025016451899 | -57.4818505136532 | 152.456834061754 | 19.0250164518989 |
24 | 140 | 155.614859241740 | -31.7405155016501 | 156.12565625991 | 15.6148592417402 |
25 | 145 | 155.703239881708 | -25.4977183397736 | 159.794478458065 | 10.7032398817081 |
26 | 150 | 173.529500350016 | -35.2209348015702 | 161.691434451555 | 23.5295003500156 |
27 | 178 | 195.439087566732 | -3.02747801177543 | 163.588390445044 | 17.4390875667319 |
28 | 163 | 169.697380992963 | -8.29905418525078 | 164.601673192288 | 6.69738099296282 |
29 | 172 | 184.122332873658 | -5.73728881319017 | 165.614955939532 | 12.1223328736578 |
30 | 178 | 156.43490863713 | 32.3366341296942 | 167.228457233176 | -21.5650913628700 |
31 | 199 | 158.914159936168 | 70.243881537013 | 168.841958526819 | -40.0858400638321 |
32 | 199 | 158.743544009656 | 68.0494327275685 | 171.207023262775 | -40.2564559903438 |
33 | 184 | 176.989585963887 | 17.4383260373817 | 173.572087998732 | -7.01041403611322 |
34 | 162 | 168.510793822090 | -21.0634315333585 | 176.552637711269 | 6.51079382208968 |
35 | 146 | 169.948663089847 | -57.4818505136532 | 179.533187423806 | 23.9486630898471 |
36 | 166 | 181.112749390396 | -31.7405155016501 | 182.627766111254 | 15.1127493903959 |
37 | 171 | 181.775373541071 | -25.4977183397736 | 185.722344798702 | 10.7753735410714 |
38 | 180 | 207.404617284177 | -35.2209348015702 | 187.816317517393 | 27.4046172841769 |
39 | 193 | 199.117187775691 | -3.02747801177543 | 189.910290236084 | 6.11718777569118 |
40 | 181 | 179.167886761944 | -8.29905418525078 | 191.131167423307 | -1.83211323805639 |
41 | 183 | 179.38524420266 | -5.73728881319017 | 192.35204461053 | -3.61475579733994 |
42 | 218 | 209.597549257464 | 32.3366341296942 | 194.065816612842 | -8.40245074253599 |
43 | 230 | 193.976529847834 | 70.243881537013 | 195.779588615153 | -36.0234701521664 |
44 | 242 | 217.169180084282 | 68.0494327275685 | 198.781387188149 | -24.8308199157176 |
45 | 209 | 198.778488201474 | 17.4383260373817 | 201.783185761145 | -10.2215117985265 |
46 | 191 | 196.994743228647 | -21.0634315333585 | 206.068688304712 | 5.99474322864663 |
47 | 172 | 191.127659665374 | -57.4818505136532 | 210.354190848279 | 19.1276596653743 |
48 | 194 | 205.555637817977 | -31.7405155016501 | 214.184877683673 | 11.5556378179768 |
49 | 196 | 199.482153820706 | -25.4977183397736 | 218.015564519068 | 3.482153820706 |
50 | 196 | 207.094595379858 | -35.2209348015702 | 220.126339421712 | 11.0945953798577 |
51 | 236 | 252.790363687418 | -3.02747801177543 | 222.237114324357 | 16.7903636874181 |
52 | 235 | 255.361488098016 | -8.29905418525078 | 222.937566087235 | 20.361488098016 |
53 | 229 | 240.099270963078 | -5.73728881319017 | 223.638017850112 | 11.0992709630780 |
54 | 243 | 229.870545963643 | 32.3366341296942 | 223.792819906663 | -13.1294540363569 |
55 | 264 | 233.808496499774 | 70.243881537013 | 223.947621963213 | -30.1915035002262 |
56 | 272 | 252.006292276800 | 68.0494327275685 | 223.944274995632 | -19.9937077232004 |
57 | 237 | 232.620745934568 | 17.4383260373817 | 223.940928028051 | -4.37925406543229 |
58 | 211 | 218.468681624540 | -21.0634315333585 | 224.594749908819 | 7.46868162453964 |
59 | 180 | 192.233278724066 | -57.4818505136532 | 225.248571789587 | 12.2332787240661 |
60 | 201 | 206.719013989328 | -31.7405155016501 | 227.021501512322 | 5.71901398932818 |
61 | 204 | 204.703287104717 | -25.4977183397736 | 228.794431235057 | 0.703287104716935 |
62 | 188 | 180.667428897015 | -35.2209348015702 | 230.553505904556 | -7.33257110298547 |
63 | 235 | 240.714897437721 | -3.02747801177543 | 232.312580574055 | 5.71489743772082 |
64 | 227 | 228.466222166896 | -8.29905418525078 | 233.832832018355 | 1.46622216689607 |
65 | 234 | 238.384205350535 | -5.73728881319017 | 235.353083462655 | 4.38420535053535 |
66 | 264 | 257.959265943508 | 32.3366341296942 | 237.704099926798 | -6.04073405649189 |
67 | 302 | 293.701002072046 | 70.243881537013 | 240.055116390940 | -8.2989979279535 |
68 | 293 | 274.704018307145 | 68.0494327275685 | 243.246548965287 | -18.2959816928552 |
69 | 259 | 254.123692422985 | 17.4383260373817 | 246.437981539633 | -4.87630757701459 |
70 | 229 | 228.959774829309 | -21.0634315333585 | 250.103656704049 | -0.0402251706909169 |
71 | 203 | 209.712518645187 | -57.4818505136532 | 253.769331868466 | 6.71251864518734 |
72 | 229 | 231.656908610152 | -31.7405155016501 | 258.083606891498 | 2.65690861015162 |
73 | 242 | 247.099836425243 | -25.4977183397736 | 262.397881914531 | 5.09983642524259 |
74 | 233 | 234.466420806155 | -35.2209348015702 | 266.754513995415 | 1.46642080615493 |
75 | 267 | 265.916331935476 | -3.02747801177543 | 271.111146076299 | -1.08366806452392 |
76 | 269 | 271.460644361895 | -8.29905418525078 | 274.838409823356 | 2.46064436189482 |
77 | 270 | 267.171615242778 | -5.73728881319017 | 278.565673570413 | -2.82838475722247 |
78 | 315 | 315.577201667444 | 32.3366341296942 | 282.086164202862 | 0.577201667444172 |
79 | 364 | 372.149463627676 | 70.243881537013 | 285.606654835311 | 8.14946362767643 |
80 | 347 | 336.599067918864 | 68.0494327275685 | 289.351499353568 | -10.4009320811360 |
81 | 312 | 313.465330090794 | 17.4383260373817 | 293.096343871825 | 1.46533009079377 |
82 | 274 | 271.987392513557 | -21.0634315333585 | 297.076039019802 | -2.01260748644347 |
83 | 237 | 230.426116345874 | -57.4818505136532 | 301.055734167779 | -6.57388365412612 |
84 | 278 | 282.334153061375 | -31.7405155016501 | 305.406362440275 | 4.33415306137465 |
85 | 284 | 283.740727627002 | -25.4977183397736 | 309.756990712771 | -0.259272372997827 |
86 | 277 | 275.191453926064 | -35.2209348015702 | 314.029480875506 | -1.80854607393582 |
87 | 317 | 318.725506973535 | -3.02747801177543 | 318.301971038240 | 1.72550697353495 |
88 | 313 | 312.591984804652 | -8.29905418525078 | 321.707069380599 | -0.408015195348185 |
89 | 318 | 316.625121090233 | -5.73728881319017 | 325.112167722957 | -1.37487890976729 |
90 | 374 | 388.011977149899 | 32.3366341296942 | 327.651388720406 | 14.0119771498995 |
91 | 413 | 425.565508745132 | 70.243881537013 | 330.190609717855 | 12.5655087451319 |
92 | 405 | 409.46746282644 | 68.0494327275685 | 332.483104445992 | 4.46746282643971 |
93 | 355 | 357.78607478849 | 17.4383260373817 | 334.775599174129 | 2.78607478848983 |
94 | 306 | 295.714136380013 | -21.0634315333585 | 337.349295153346 | -10.2858636199874 |
95 | 271 | 259.55885938109 | -57.4818505136532 | 339.922991132563 | -11.4411406189101 |
96 | 306 | 300.178745914256 | -31.7405155016501 | 343.561769587394 | -5.82125408574382 |
97 | 315 | 308.297170297549 | -25.4977183397736 | 347.200548042224 | -6.7028297024508 |
98 | 301 | 285.309649597637 | -35.2209348015702 | 351.911285203933 | -15.6903504023633 |
99 | 356 | 358.405455646133 | -3.02747801177543 | 356.622022365642 | 2.40545564613296 |
100 | 348 | 343.309029557603 | -8.29905418525078 | 360.990024627648 | -4.69097044239697 |
101 | 355 | 350.379261923537 | -5.73728881319017 | 365.358026889653 | -4.62073807646289 |
102 | 422 | 443.438047010396 | 32.3366341296942 | 368.22531885991 | 21.4380470103961 |
103 | 465 | 488.663507632821 | 70.243881537013 | 371.092610830166 | 23.6635076328207 |
104 | 467 | 493.748854466478 | 68.0494327275685 | 372.201712805953 | 26.7488544664784 |
105 | 404 | 417.250859180878 | 17.4383260373817 | 373.31081478174 | 13.2508591808784 |
106 | 347 | 341.994502619741 | -21.0634315333585 | 373.068928913618 | -5.00549738025944 |
107 | 305 | 294.654807468157 | -57.4818505136532 | 372.827043045496 | -10.3451925318427 |
108 | 336 | 330.574168419745 | -31.7405155016501 | 373.166347081905 | -5.42583158025531 |
109 | 340 | 331.992067221459 | -25.4977183397736 | 373.505651118315 | -8.00793277854126 |
110 | 318 | 295.917234796298 | -35.2209348015702 | 375.303700005273 | -22.0827652037024 |
111 | 362 | 349.925729119545 | -3.02747801177543 | 377.10174889223 | -12.0742708804547 |
112 | 348 | 325.122465855012 | -8.29905418525078 | 379.176588330239 | -22.8775341449881 |
113 | 363 | 350.485861044942 | -5.73728881319017 | 381.251427768248 | -12.5141389550575 |
114 | 435 | 454.789951910881 | 32.3366341296942 | 382.873413959425 | 19.7899519108811 |
115 | 491 | 527.260718312386 | 70.243881537013 | 384.495400150601 | 36.2607183123855 |
116 | 505 | 555.537665590611 | 68.0494327275685 | 386.41290168182 | 50.5376655906113 |
117 | 404 | 402.231270749579 | 17.4383260373817 | 388.330403213039 | -1.76872925042073 |
118 | 359 | 348.388866476376 | -21.0634315333585 | 390.674565056982 | -10.6111335236239 |
119 | 310 | 284.463123612728 | -57.4818505136532 | 393.018726900926 | -25.5368763872724 |
120 | 337 | 309.398913673082 | -31.7405155016501 | 396.341601828568 | -27.6010863269179 |
121 | 360 | 345.833241583563 | -25.4977183397736 | 399.66447675621 | -14.1667584164366 |
122 | 342 | 314.317448303322 | -35.2209348015702 | 404.903486498249 | -27.6825516966784 |
123 | 406 | 404.884981771489 | -3.02747801177543 | 410.142496240287 | -1.11501822851147 |
124 | 396 | 383.954091264659 | -8.29905418525078 | 416.344962920592 | -12.0459087353409 |
125 | 420 | 423.189859212294 | -5.73728881319017 | 422.547429600896 | 3.1898592122937 |
126 | 472 | 483.873712318056 | 32.3366341296942 | 427.78965355225 | 11.8737123180561 |
127 | 548 | 592.724240959384 | 70.243881537013 | 433.031877503603 | 44.7242409593841 |
128 | 559 | 613.514330136433 | 68.0494327275685 | 436.436237135998 | 54.5143301364332 |
129 | 463 | 468.721077194225 | 17.4383260373817 | 439.840596768394 | 5.72107719422462 |
130 | 407 | 392.687931319752 | -21.0634315333585 | 442.375500213607 | -14.3120686802483 |
131 | 362 | 336.571446854833 | -57.4818505136532 | 444.91040365882 | -25.4285531451666 |
132 | 405 | 393.100333883737 | -31.7405155016501 | 448.640181617913 | -11.8996661162626 |
133 | 417 | 407.127758762768 | -25.4977183397736 | 452.369959577005 | -9.87224123723178 |
134 | 391 | 359.408804900782 | -35.2209348015702 | 457.812129900788 | -31.5911950992179 |
135 | 419 | 377.773177787205 | -3.02747801177543 | 463.254300224571 | -41.2268222127952 |
136 | 461 | 462.688631105858 | -8.29905418525078 | 467.610423079392 | 1.68863110585846 |
137 | 472 | 477.770742878976 | -5.73728881319017 | 471.966545934214 | 5.77074287897614 |
138 | 535 | 562.055066908319 | 32.3366341296942 | 475.608298961987 | 27.0550669083188 |
139 | 622 | 694.506066473227 | 70.243881537013 | 479.25005198976 | 72.506066473227 |
140 | 606 | 660.761165202603 | 68.0494327275685 | 483.189402069829 | 54.7611652026028 |
141 | 508 | 511.432921812721 | 17.4383260373817 | 487.128752149897 | 3.43292181272085 |
142 | 461 | 452.310411781539 | -21.0634315333585 | 490.75301975182 | -8.6895882184611 |
143 | 390 | 343.104563159912 | -57.4818505136532 | 494.377287353742 | -46.8954368400885 |
144 | 432 | 398.310610449871 | -31.7405155016501 | 497.429905051779 | -33.6893895501286 |