| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 0.275592474736350 |
| beta | 0.0326929527336615 |
| gamma | 0.87072922226501 |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 13 | 115 | 111.081808708867 | 3.91819129113328 |
| 14 | 126 | 122.331452141086 | 3.66854785891434 |
| 15 | 141 | 137.439012569900 | 3.56098743009966 |
| 16 | 135 | 132.323380345381 | 2.67661965461949 |
| 17 | 125 | 123.479680462729 | 1.52031953727142 |
| 18 | 149 | 147.667288314870 | 1.33271168512962 |
| 19 | 170 | 162.443243712473 | 7.55675628752724 |
| 20 | 170 | 165.529589613321 | 4.47041038667871 |
| 21 | 158 | 153.88771229425 | 4.11228770575008 |
| 22 | 133 | 136.318641448733 | -3.31864144873339 |
| 23 | 114 | 119.090610790114 | -5.09061079011435 |
| 24 | 140 | 133.988719950498 | 6.01128004950164 |
| 25 | 145 | 134.830368289919 | 10.1696317100805 |
| 26 | 150 | 149.705143441365 | 0.294856558634905 |
| 27 | 178 | 166.540825999660 | 11.4591740003402 |
| 28 | 163 | 161.749728378189 | 1.25027162181149 |
| 29 | 172 | 149.757507993041 | 22.2424920069588 |
| 30 | 178 | 185.647723596323 | -7.64772359632292 |
| 31 | 199 | 206.262153619027 | -7.26215361902663 |
| 32 | 199 | 203.180886325985 | -4.18088632598545 |
| 33 | 184 | 186.419252204207 | -2.41925220420688 |
| 34 | 162 | 158.147799136752 | 3.85220086324750 |
| 35 | 146 | 138.368728198327 | 7.63127180167297 |
| 36 | 166 | 169.141340932275 | -3.14134093227528 |
| 37 | 171 | 170.360941535351 | 0.639058464649423 |
| 38 | 180 | 177.43819047237 | 2.56180952763009 |
| 39 | 193 | 206.247937478342 | -13.2479374783417 |
| 40 | 181 | 185.960743337438 | -4.96074333743809 |
| 41 | 183 | 184.798362273963 | -1.79836227396325 |
| 42 | 218 | 195.684395505420 | 22.3156044945797 |
| 43 | 230 | 227.498397718799 | 2.50160228120123 |
| 44 | 242 | 229.004771789439 | 12.995228210561 |
| 45 | 209 | 215.630984242776 | -6.63098424277621 |
| 46 | 191 | 186.286597370310 | 4.71340262969036 |
| 47 | 172 | 166.037642761140 | 5.96235723886033 |
| 48 | 194 | 192.842517670216 | 1.15748232978419 |
| 49 | 196 | 198.309951792614 | -2.30995179261362 |
| 50 | 196 | 206.984490574542 | -10.9844905745424 |
| 51 | 236 | 224.192965596175 | 11.8070344038246 |
| 52 | 235 | 214.065423836271 | 20.9345761637291 |
| 53 | 229 | 222.675239689624 | 6.32476031037604 |
| 54 | 243 | 256.737994926100 | -13.7379949260995 |
| 55 | 264 | 268.358000825093 | -4.35800082509263 |
| 56 | 272 | 275.595138563011 | -3.59513856301129 |
| 57 | 237 | 240.950054518830 | -3.95005451882952 |
| 58 | 211 | 216.418708751084 | -5.41870875108356 |
| 59 | 180 | 191.302349202140 | -11.3023492021397 |
| 60 | 201 | 212.165209086813 | -11.1652090868132 |
| 61 | 204 | 211.884606924302 | -7.88460692430232 |
| 62 | 188 | 213.278507450624 | -25.2785074506242 |
| 63 | 235 | 241.844292266099 | -6.84429226609927 |
| 64 | 227 | 231.126648633712 | -4.12664863371231 |
| 65 | 234 | 222.847577264956 | 11.1524227350442 |
| 66 | 264 | 244.403589556133 | 19.5964104438671 |
| 67 | 302 | 270.925430122293 | 31.0745698777072 |
| 68 | 293 | 288.46328100399 | 4.53671899600994 |
| 69 | 259 | 253.325564521034 | 5.67443547896596 |
| 70 | 229 | 228.457233710859 | 0.542766289141412 |
| 71 | 203 | 198.766723143806 | 4.23327685619387 |
| 72 | 229 | 226.325368143990 | 2.67463185601025 |
| 73 | 242 | 232.507692400678 | 9.49230759932206 |
| 74 | 233 | 226.155487496555 | 6.84451250344512 |
| 75 | 267 | 284.984109809782 | -17.9841098097817 |
| 76 | 269 | 271.954044414959 | -2.95404441495936 |
| 77 | 270 | 274.414349879443 | -4.41434987944342 |
| 78 | 315 | 301.110875912758 | 13.8891240872424 |
| 79 | 364 | 337.481480217208 | 26.5185197827919 |
| 80 | 347 | 335.985533162042 | 11.0144668379583 |
| 81 | 312 | 297.836666071856 | 14.1633339281443 |
| 82 | 274 | 267.300445465088 | 6.69955453491184 |
| 83 | 237 | 236.99254313544 | 0.00745686455996974 |
| 84 | 278 | 266.900689163386 | 11.0993108366135 |
| 85 | 284 | 281.633925908281 | 2.36607409171881 |
| 86 | 277 | 269.967245890601 | 7.03275410939943 |
| 87 | 317 | 320.174999871829 | -3.17499987182867 |
| 88 | 313 | 321.276899149144 | -8.27689914914367 |
| 89 | 318 | 322.045741325616 | -4.04574132561623 |
| 90 | 374 | 367.951178474248 | 6.04882152575198 |
| 91 | 413 | 417.203225397332 | -4.20322539733195 |
| 92 | 405 | 394.606247713423 | 10.3937522865770 |
| 93 | 355 | 352.30665533687 | 2.69334466312978 |
| 94 | 306 | 308.449808881235 | -2.44980888123547 |
| 95 | 271 | 266.696337801515 | 4.30366219848491 |
| 96 | 306 | 309.394161372705 | -3.39416137270507 |
| 97 | 315 | 315.103179025908 | -0.103179025908162 |
| 98 | 301 | 304.405357956351 | -3.40535795635083 |
| 99 | 356 | 349.058201817874 | 6.94179818212643 |
| 100 | 348 | 349.292551021806 | -1.29255102180582 |
| 101 | 355 | 355.073176743192 | -0.0731767431923913 |
| 102 | 422 | 414.360922266091 | 7.6390777339086 |
| 103 | 465 | 462.091146643931 | 2.90885335606902 |
| 104 | 467 | 448.979705968486 | 18.0202940315142 |
| 105 | 404 | 397.635010380021 | 6.3649896199791 |
| 106 | 347 | 345.450978117798 | 1.54902188220177 |
| 107 | 305 | 304.243038614503 | 0.756961385497391 |
| 108 | 336 | 345.615242815445 | -9.61524281544519 |
| 109 | 340 | 352.616294292299 | -12.6162942922995 |
| 110 | 318 | 334.810889595368 | -16.8108895953683 |
| 111 | 362 | 386.941371143576 | -24.941371143576 |
| 112 | 348 | 372.19085448139 | -24.1908544813901 |
| 113 | 363 | 372.090123850004 | -9.09012385000392 |
| 114 | 435 | 435.498537075613 | -0.498537075613456 |
| 115 | 491 | 478.418383525416 | 12.5816164745842 |
| 116 | 505 | 476.297736428687 | 28.7022635713128 |
| 117 | 404 | 417.219138602199 | -13.2191386021993 |
| 118 | 359 | 354.436906440644 | 4.56309355935639 |
| 119 | 310 | 311.87647452998 | -1.87647452998021 |
| 120 | 337 | 345.975126181846 | -8.97512618184646 |
| 121 | 360 | 350.643068831256 | 9.35693116874421 |
| 122 | 342 | 334.994586512654 | 7.00541348734612 |
| 123 | 406 | 390.685878839784 | 15.3141211602163 |
| 124 | 396 | 386.498863412812 | 9.50113658718794 |
| 125 | 420 | 407.130739664592 | 12.8692603354077 |
| 126 | 472 | 491.604975308879 | -19.6049753088789 |
| 127 | 548 | 543.780022319873 | 4.21997768012739 |
| 128 | 559 | 549.935293999599 | 9.06470600040075 |
| 129 | 463 | 449.638769888322 | 13.3612301116776 |
| 130 | 407 | 399.913027267263 | 7.0869727327372 |
| 131 | 362 | 348.397215116609 | 13.6027848833913 |
| 132 | 405 | 386.652093911442 | 18.3479060885584 |
| 133 | 417 | 413.916764563464 | 3.08323543653609 |
| 134 | 391 | 392.451160571742 | -1.45116057174164 |
| 135 | 419 | 460.1705013673 | -41.1705013673003 |
| 136 | 461 | 435.421790272079 | 25.5782097279213 |
| 137 | 472 | 465.095112731698 | 6.90488726830233 |
| 138 | 535 | 534.352710870332 | 0.647289129667797 |
| 139 | 622 | 616.735355637602 | 5.26464436239837 |
| 140 | 606 | 627.551048082547 | -21.5510480825469 |
| 141 | 508 | 510.133147348626 | -2.13314734862615 |
| 142 | 461 | 446.162802943527 | 14.8371970564727 |
| 143 | 390 | 395.452817646612 | -5.45281764661166 |
| 144 | 432 | 434.572462781261 | -2.57246278126127 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 145 | 447.055931344916 | 427.306133026716 | 466.805729663116 |
| 146 | 419.712279855699 | 399.132585244972 | 440.291974466426 |
| 147 | 464.867131095767 | 442.963034360731 | 486.771227830803 |
| 148 | 496.083937621018 | 472.832900505232 | 519.334974736803 |
| 149 | 507.532637500571 | 483.137513327878 | 531.927761673263 |
| 150 | 575.450895961051 | 548.708256350216 | 602.193535571887 |
| 151 | 666.592293420418 | 636.628829419529 | 696.555757421307 |
| 152 | 657.913718340472 | 627.182084720006 | 688.645351960938 |
| 153 | 550.308766449002 | 521.639795163271 | 578.977737734733 |
| 154 | 492.985309235296 | 465.015309913896 | 520.955308556697 |
| 155 | 420.207279555462 | 393.4687785372 | 446.945780573723 |
| 156 | 465.634500936807 | 443.300414442854 | 487.96858743076 |
