| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 1 |
| beta | 0.0311447030224647 |
| gamma | FALSE |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 3 | 23932 | 23007 | 925 |
| 4 | 22321 | 24175.8088502958 | -1854.80885029578 |
| 5 | 21102 | 22507.0413794899 | -1405.04137948988 |
| 6 | 22824 | 21244.2817829914 | 1579.71821700861 |
| 7 | 23129 | 23015.4816377193 | 113.518362280698 |
| 8 | 23604 | 23324.0171334001 | 279.982866599868 |
| 9 | 24746 | 23807.7371166318 | 938.262883368236 |
| 10 | 26911 | 24978.9590354913 | 1932.04096450873 |
| 11 | 27909 | 27204.1318775581 | 704.868122441872 |
| 12 | 28922 | 28224.0847859016 | 697.915214098415 |
| 13 | 29800 | 29258.8211479795 | 541.178852020461 |
| 14 | 30506 | 30153.6760026078 | 352.323997392246 |
| 15 | 30771 | 30870.6490288742 | -99.6490288742243 |
| 16 | 31976 | 31132.5454894635 | 843.454510536543 |
| 17 | 33749 | 32363.8146297071 | 1385.18537029292 |
| 18 | 34371 | 34179.9558166959 | 191.04418330409 |
| 19 | 33246 | 34807.9058310491 | -1561.90583104909 |
| 20 | 35072 | 33634.260737792 | 1437.73926220799 |
| 21 | 35762 | 35505.0387001372 | 256.961299862785 |
| 22 | 36179 | 36203.0416835097 | -24.0416835097058 |
| 23 | 37433 | 36619.2929124166 | 813.70708758336 |
| 24 | 38298 | 37898.6355780067 | 399.364421993305 |
| 25 | 37559 | 38776.0736643274 | -1217.07366432741 |
| 26 | 37511 | 37999.1682664955 | -488.168266495471 |
| 27 | 39364 | 37935.9644108105 | 1428.03558918952 |
| 28 | 40084 | 39833.4401551413 | 250.559844858697 |
| 29 | 42712 | 40561.2437670988 | 2150.75623290122 |
| 30 | 41938 | 43256.2284312462 | -1318.2284312462 |
| 31 | 40799 | 42441.1725982393 | -1642.17259823927 |
| 32 | 38568 | 41251.0276203555 | -2683.02762035548 |
| 33 | 41134 | 38936.4655219184 | 2197.53447808156 |
| 34 | 43955 | 41570.9070806199 | 2384.09291938008 |
| 35 | 43607 | 44466.158946572 | -859.158946571966 |
| 36 | 45082 | 44091.4006963319 | 990.59930366811 |
| 37 | 46464 | 45597.2526174589 | 866.747382541107 |
| 38 | 46496 | 47006.2472072836 | -510.247207283639 |
| 39 | 46774 | 47022.3557095447 | -248.355709544747 |
| 40 | 47890 | 47292.620744727 | 597.379255272957 |
| 41 | 45740 | 48427.2259442243 | -2687.22594422429 |
| 42 | 42660 | 46193.5330902372 | -3533.53309023717 |
| 43 | 39190 | 43003.4822515217 | -3813.48225152168 |
| 44 | 39010 | 39414.7124793166 | -404.7124793166 |
| 45 | 41150 | 39222.1078293388 | 1927.8921706612 |
| 46 | 42530 | 41422.1514584534 | 1107.84854154663 |
| 47 | 44710 | 42836.6550722737 | 1873.34492772628 |
| 48 | 46620 | 45074.9998437064 | 1545.00015629361 |
| 49 | 44560 | 47033.1184147438 | -2473.11841474382 |
| 50 | 46120 | 44896.0938761772 | 1223.90612382277 |
| 51 | 48060 | 46494.2120689311 | 1565.78793106893 |
| 52 | 51970 | 48482.9780690404 | 3487.02193095963 |
| 53 | 57720 | 52501.5803315129 | 5218.41966848707 |
| 54 | 63490 | 58414.1064623345 | 5075.89353766546 |
| 55 | 65370 | 64342.1936591388 | 1027.80634086121 |
| 56 | 64260 | 66254.2043823895 | -1994.20438238951 |
| 57 | 58700 | 65082.0954791339 | -6382.0954791339 |
| 58 | 58630 | 59323.3270107753 | -693.327010775254 |
| 59 | 59803 | 59231.7335469272 | 571.266453072793 |
| 60 | 59266 | 60422.5254709549 | -1156.52547095485 |
| 61 | 60570 | 59849.505828624 | 720.494171375947 |
| 62 | 63062 | 61175.945405621 | 1886.05459437903 |
| 63 | 63846 | 63726.686015847 | 119.313984152941 |
| 64 | 64726 | 64514.40201445 | 211.59798555007 |
| 65 | 63460 | 65400.99217087 | -1940.99217087004 |
| 66 | 65220 | 64074.5405461394 | 1145.45945386063 |
| 67 | 66659 | 65870.2155406541 | 788.784459345872 |
| 68 | 66871 | 67333.7819983892 | -462.781998389197 |
| 69 | 65672 | 67531.3687904852 | -1859.36879048521 |
| 70 | 67182 | 66274.4593016963 | 907.540698303681 |
| 71 | 68292 | 67812.7243872258 | 479.275612774218 |
| 72 | 68318 | 68937.6512838515 | -619.651283851548 |
| 73 | 69530 | 68944.3524286385 | 585.647571361493 |
| 74 | 70500 | 70174.5922483244 | 325.407751675622 |
| 75 | 72044 | 71154.7269761115 | 889.273023888469 |
| 76 | 73811 | 72726.4231203464 | 1084.57687965357 |
| 77 | 76018 | 74527.2019451683 | 1490.79805483173 |
| 78 | 77818 | 76780.6324078525 | 1037.36759214754 |
| 79 | 79455 | 78612.940913435 | 842.059086564972 |
| 80 | 81408 | 80276.1665936135 | 1131.83340638653 |
| 81 | 81815 | 82264.4172089263 | -449.417208926272 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 82 | 82657.420243421 | 79199.5211850987 | 86115.3193017435 |
| 83 | 83499.8404868422 | 78532.8969002439 | 88466.7840734405 |
| 84 | 84342.2607302633 | 78164.5925120903 | 90519.9289484363 |
| 85 | 85184.6809736843 | 77941.7927037476 | 92427.569243621 |
| 86 | 86027.1012171054 | 77806.318848471 | 94247.8835857399 |
| 87 | 86869.5214605265 | 77728.8279459219 | 96010.214975131 |
| 88 | 87711.9417039476 | 77692.1776076052 | 97731.70580029 |
| 89 | 88554.3619473687 | 77685.38577034 | 99423.3381243974 |
| 90 | 89396.7821907898 | 77700.9544634141 | 101092.609918165 |
| 91 | 90239.2024342108 | 77733.5197918933 | 102744.885076528 |
| 92 | 91081.622677632 | 77779.1050199977 | 104384.140335266 |
| 93 | 91924.042921053 | 77834.6775768833 | 106013.408265223 |
