| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 0.122923936061106 |
| beta | 0.0628781616526975 |
| gamma | 0.35503071893546 |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 13 | 2072 | 1985.84268162393 | 86.1573183760677 |
| 14 | 2434 | 2331.83381956774 | 102.166180432265 |
| 15 | 2956 | 2837.70749586882 | 118.292504131177 |
| 16 | 2828 | 2728.72779345768 | 99.2722065423186 |
| 17 | 2687 | 2639.26067236362 | 47.7393276363823 |
| 18 | 2629 | 2618.41124858815 | 10.5887514118508 |
| 19 | 3150 | 2809.57697266319 | 340.423027336813 |
| 20 | 4119 | 3751.37676577387 | 367.623234226128 |
| 21 | 3030 | 2757.36156032045 | 272.638439679548 |
| 22 | 3055 | 3592.02773556861 | -537.027735568609 |
| 23 | 3821 | 4348.72407950558 | -527.72407950558 |
| 24 | 4001 | 4209.7351640861 | -208.735164086099 |
| 25 | 2529 | 2364.00602923632 | 164.993970763677 |
| 26 | 2472 | 2726.60730668541 | -254.607306685407 |
| 27 | 3134 | 3192.82320107236 | -58.8232010723636 |
| 28 | 2789 | 3053.95672088088 | -264.956720880879 |
| 29 | 2758 | 2898.6628602674 | -140.6628602674 |
| 30 | 2993 | 2836.62229787113 | 156.377702128866 |
| 31 | 3282 | 3143.07883611707 | 138.921163882932 |
| 32 | 3437 | 4061.68473144673 | -624.684731446733 |
| 33 | 2804 | 2901.54979309679 | -97.5497930967904 |
| 34 | 3076 | 3421.16448977267 | -345.164489772670 |
| 35 | 3782 | 4188.40004272526 | -406.400042725262 |
| 36 | 3889 | 4148.64968698426 | -259.649686984263 |
| 37 | 2271 | 2397.63883920792 | -126.638839207915 |
| 38 | 2452 | 2576.07994645867 | -124.079946458666 |
| 39 | 3084 | 3102.66234208457 | -18.6623420845667 |
| 40 | 2522 | 2888.21186409838 | -366.211864098378 |
| 41 | 2769 | 2742.05940324039 | 26.9405967596081 |
| 42 | 3438 | 2777.29625715575 | 660.703742844251 |
| 43 | 2839 | 3128.38860904603 | -289.388609046026 |
| 44 | 3746 | 3741.33388614964 | 4.6661138503614 |
| 45 | 2632 | 2812.33696108994 | -180.336961089944 |
| 46 | 2851 | 3233.66251037908 | -382.662510379085 |
| 47 | 3871 | 3965.92261036955 | -94.9226103695464 |
| 48 | 3618 | 4001.26623179294 | -383.26623179294 |
| 49 | 2389 | 2266.63210520868 | 122.367894791320 |
| 50 | 2344 | 2468.55758762906 | -124.557587629064 |
| 51 | 2678 | 3019.9821309966 | -341.982130996601 |
| 52 | 2492 | 2647.14080399939 | -155.140803999393 |
| 53 | 2858 | 2640.56474709947 | 217.43525290053 |
| 54 | 2246 | 2889.24455719202 | -643.244557192023 |
| 55 | 2800 | 2766.80344368023 | 33.196556319765 |
| 56 | 3869 | 3496.06213210009 | 372.937867899915 |
| 57 | 3007 | 2542.66774864412 | 464.332251355881 |
| 58 | 3023 | 2973.16047335934 | 49.8395266406642 |
| 59 | 3907 | 3844.45119617801 | 62.5488038219873 |
| 60 | 4209 | 3806.84868640701 | 402.151313592991 |
| 61 | 2353 | 2329.76460618054 | 23.2353938194615 |
| 62 | 2570 | 2445.40280050067 | 124.597199499333 |
| 63 | 2903 | 2964.46494134045 | -61.4649413404509 |
| 64 | 2910 | 2691.16850706248 | 218.831492937523 |
| 65 | 3782 | 2856.35147252505 | 925.648527474953 |
| 66 | 2759 | 2939.32822162209 | -180.328221622091 |
| 67 | 2931 | 3103.25163278733 | -172.251632787325 |
| 68 | 3641 | 3930.28429496249 | -289.284294962492 |
| 69 | 2794 | 2936.06447428926 | -142.064474289257 |
| 70 | 3070 | 3170.3794106414 | -100.379410641397 |
| 71 | 3576 | 4033.43241840469 | -457.432418404686 |
| 72 | 4106 | 4039.91144206063 | 66.0885579393744 |
| 73 | 2452 | 2403.18067424855 | 48.8193257514458 |
| 74 | 2206 | 2553.37813390341 | -347.378133903406 |
| 75 | 2488 | 2952.68895069317 | -464.688950693167 |
| 76 | 2416 | 2710.19466911439 | -294.194669114394 |
| 77 | 2534 | 3021.53097666638 | -487.530976666377 |
| 78 | 2521 | 2564.60394020959 | -43.6039402095853 |
| 79 | 3093 | 2727.10450740374 | 365.895492596256 |
| 80 | 3903 | 3567.26062737423 | 335.739372625771 |
| 81 | 2907 | 2683.95972539023 | 223.040274609765 |
| 82 | 3025 | 2967.20294616971 | 57.7970538302902 |
| 83 | 3812 | 3730.80775400432 | 81.1922459956754 |
| 84 | 4209 | 3962.96892683598 | 246.031073164016 |
| 85 | 2138 | 2340.82441112322 | -202.824411123217 |
| 86 | 2419 | 2332.61676822983 | 86.3832317701654 |
| 87 | 2622 | 2747.97003496763 | -125.970034967634 |
| 88 | 2912 | 2602.07257418404 | 309.927425815963 |
| 89 | 2708 | 2934.00668175509 | -226.006681755093 |
| 90 | 2798 | 2656.02211769573 | 141.977882304272 |
| 91 | 3254 | 2978.844039266 | 275.155960734003 |
| 92 | 2895 | 3807.74977932082 | -912.74977932082 |
| 93 | 3263 | 2735.53052504221 | 527.469474957786 |
| 94 | 3736 | 3006.73757444092 | 729.262425559083 |
| 95 | 4077 | 3867.35356930211 | 209.646430697892 |
| 96 | 4097 | 4174.81369316516 | -77.8136931651561 |
| 97 | 2175 | 2378.76906557102 | -203.769065571024 |
| 98 | 3138 | 2466.17086096644 | 671.829139033559 |
| 99 | 2823 | 2897.55952585991 | -74.55952585991 |
| 100 | 2498 | 2904.30720429103 | -406.307204291029 |
| 101 | 2822 | 2986.37093875851 | -164.370938758506 |
| 102 | 2738 | 2836.08156851991 | -98.08156851991 |
| 103 | 4137 | 3174.54150425071 | 962.458495749285 |
| 104 | 3515 | 3727.02166685362 | -212.021666853620 |
| 105 | 3785 | 3203.81232021901 | 581.187679780989 |
| 106 | 3632 | 3559.27921233145 | 72.7207876685475 |
| 107 | 4504 | 4187.13378152134 | 316.866218478655 |
| 108 | 4451 | 4428.83653876027 | 22.1634612397338 |
| 109 | 2550 | 2617.20779232954 | -67.2077923295383 |
| 110 | 2867 | 3006.45075866478 | -139.450758664777 |
| 111 | 3458 | 3111.82887619607 | 346.171123803929 |
| 112 | 2961 | 3076.37613699992 | -115.376136999919 |
| 113 | 3163 | 3281.17149012045 | -118.171490120448 |
| 114 | 2880 | 3169.19294939455 | -289.192949394546 |
| 115 | 3331 | 3824.91406458938 | -493.914064589375 |
| 116 | 3062 | 3831.90729050255 | -769.907290502546 |
| 117 | 3534 | 3482.06129244458 | 51.9387075554214 |
| 118 | 3622 | 3604.99338399486 | 17.0066160051406 |
| 119 | 4464 | 4292.44644409626 | 171.553555903743 |
| 120 | 5411 | 4413.81936884119 | 997.180631158812 |
| 121 | 2564 | 2691.05023608226 | -127.050236082257 |
| 122 | 2820 | 3046.81482232811 | -226.814822328106 |
| 123 | 3508 | 3288.36918390758 | 219.630816092424 |
| 124 | 3088 | 3088.36093058357 | -0.360930583570735 |
| 125 | 3299 | 3302.03297606169 | -3.03297606168780 |
| 126 | 2939 | 3147.45246753272 | -208.452467532723 |
| 127 | 3320 | 3746.47363493709 | -426.473634937086 |
| 128 | 3418 | 3673.45993355708 | -255.459933557082 |
| 129 | 3604 | 3644.38614000392 | -40.3861400039191 |
| 130 | 3495 | 3745.99878241764 | -250.998782417642 |
| 131 | 4163 | 4447.4672487195 | -284.467248719498 |
| 132 | 4882 | 4765.1862314213 | 116.813768578697 |
| 133 | 2211 | 2572.63210130036 | -361.632101300363 |
| 134 | 3260 | 2855.18846143743 | 404.81153856257 |
| 135 | 2992 | 3304.97813353914 | -312.978133539136 |
| 136 | 2425 | 2958.45491158245 | -533.454911582449 |
| 137 | 2707 | 3089.10291247523 | -382.102912475235 |
| 138 | 3244 | 2804.36836860031 | 439.631631399694 |
| 139 | 3965 | 3400.58248683110 | 564.417513168898 |
| 140 | 3315 | 3495.70091234209 | -180.700912342089 |
| 141 | 3333 | 3536.44233408617 | -203.442334086170 |
| 142 | 3583 | 3544.82266004058 | 38.1773399594249 |
| 143 | 4021 | 4266.04483352958 | -245.044833529581 |
| 144 | 4904 | 4708.4977029165 | 195.502297083496 |
| 145 | 2252 | 2372.17517874422 | -120.175178744218 |
| 146 | 2952 | 2920.48238460767 | 31.5176153923312 |
| 147 | 3573 | 3095.39618782337 | 477.603812176634 |
| 148 | 3048 | 2778.03362813544 | 269.966371864562 |
| 149 | 3059 | 3061.41375285475 | -2.41375285474896 |
| 150 | 2731 | 3089.00893130404 | -358.008931304042 |
| 151 | 3563 | 3629.64351109778 | -66.6435110977814 |
| 152 | 3092 | 3413.90280922877 | -321.902809228772 |
| 153 | 3478 | 3427.84934703614 | 50.1506529638605 |
| 154 | 3478 | 3542.2437317922 | -64.2437317922008 |
| 155 | 4308 | 4161.49572906673 | 146.504270933275 |
| 156 | 5029 | 4791.09931454002 | 237.900685459981 |
| 157 | 2075 | 2363.85625030521 | -288.856250305212 |
| 158 | 3264 | 2939.52635862239 | 324.473641377605 |
| 159 | 3308 | 3292.48448941245 | 15.5155105875529 |
| 160 | 3688 | 2853.21933533991 | 834.780664660094 |
| 161 | 3136 | 3125.13319850902 | 10.8668014909777 |
| 162 | 2824 | 3047.65581804721 | -223.655818047206 |
| 163 | 3644 | 3700.59537930672 | -56.5953793067156 |
| 164 | 4694 | 3411.74437099281 | 1282.25562900719 |
| 165 | 2914 | 3756.2720860273 | -842.272086027302 |
| 166 | 3686 | 3735.98583927871 | -49.985839278705 |
| 167 | 4358 | 4433.36590475871 | -75.3659047587116 |
| 168 | 5587 | 5073.19211581412 | 513.807884185875 |
| 169 | 2265 | 2527.00686188418 | -262.006861884177 |
| 170 | 3685 | 3308.33757430996 | 376.662425690035 |
| 171 | 3754 | 3583.28421186176 | 170.715788138243 |
| 172 | 3708 | 3431.18598058334 | 276.814019416664 |
| 173 | 3210 | 3386.62104665384 | -176.62104665384 |
| 174 | 3517 | 3220.28636201448 | 296.713637985523 |
| 175 | 3905 | 4000.45180595504 | -95.451805955035 |
| 176 | 3670 | 4134.66673322833 | -464.666733228330 |
| 177 | 4221 | 3600.33798063106 | 620.662019368937 |
| 178 | 4404 | 4015.3344371608 | 388.665562839199 |
| 179 | 5086 | 4770.86653169258 | 315.133468307419 |
| 180 | 5725 | 5657.30927147469 | 67.690728525311 |
| 181 | 2367 | 2826.40986638851 | -459.409866388513 |
| 182 | 3819 | 3792.52826834768 | 26.4717316523179 |
| 183 | 4067 | 3967.77056413013 | 99.2294358698682 |
| 184 | 4022 | 3846.84221389780 | 175.157786102205 |
| 185 | 3937 | 3654.72035250663 | 282.279647493373 |
| 186 | 4365 | 3701.86740927603 | 663.132590723971 |
| 187 | 4290 | 4417.47133932666 | -127.471339326661 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 188 | 4445.04617652993 | 3762.81519710919 | 5127.27715595067 |
| 189 | 4321.65230403539 | 3633.62303773862 | 5009.68157033217 |
| 190 | 4599.17301047653 | 3904.6967437247 | 5293.64927722836 |
| 191 | 5292.0872371324 | 4590.49350690679 | 5993.680967358 |
| 192 | 6068.36137167132 | 5358.96069890571 | 6777.76204443693 |
| 193 | 3070.10443495828 | 2352.19110218386 | 3788.0177677327 |
| 194 | 4252.64092707115 | 3525.49576242709 | 4979.78609171521 |
| 195 | 4455.72801470876 | 3718.62114498182 | 5192.8348844357 |
| 196 | 4353.92112982561 | 3606.11466703997 | 5101.72759261125 |
| 197 | 4179.94680165021 | 3420.69743073862 | 4939.1961725618 |
| 198 | 4315.12857909415 | 3543.69001812892 | 5086.56714005939 |
| 199 | 4702.04706140015 | 3917.67237049289 | 5486.4217523074 |
