| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 0.0218820013470966 |
| beta | 1 |
| gamma | 1 |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 13 | 2499.81 | 1442.11065705128 | 1057.69934294872 |
| 14 | 5198.24 | 4216.98507326975 | 981.254926730251 |
| 15 | 7225.14 | 6396.58272096476 | 828.557279035236 |
| 16 | 4806.03 | 4218.88411335655 | 587.145886643452 |
| 17 | 5900.88 | 5374.17461841729 | 526.705381582714 |
| 18 | 4951.34 | 4104.69918213418 | 846.64081786582 |
| 19 | 6179.12 | 5827.90910234919 | 351.210897650813 |
| 20 | 4752.15 | 5169.9615550515 | -417.811555051501 |
| 21 | 5496.43 | 6576.9007877307 | -1080.47078773070 |
| 22 | 5835.1 | 7956.12559695512 | -2121.02559695512 |
| 23 | 12600.08 | 9134.81661613924 | 3465.26338386076 |
| 24 | 28541.72 | 21490.9862163605 | 7050.73378363948 |
| 25 | 4717.02 | 5715.70909868618 | -998.689098686176 |
| 26 | 5702.63 | 8590.06100855337 | -2887.43100855337 |
| 27 | 9957.58 | 10670.2402046897 | -712.660204689728 |
| 28 | 5304.78 | 8323.55537984434 | -3018.77537984434 |
| 29 | 6492.43 | 9362.785924832 | -2870.355924832 |
| 30 | 6630.8 | 8279.53885680331 | -1648.73885680331 |
| 31 | 7349.62 | 9356.58031188177 | -2006.96031188177 |
| 32 | 8176.62 | 7736.25940935995 | 440.360590640047 |
| 33 | 8573.17 | 8374.01962039411 | 199.150379605891 |
| 34 | 9690.5 | 8651.6617631101 | 1038.83823688991 |
| 35 | 15151.84 | 15320.8929183157 | -169.052918315658 |
| 36 | 34061.01 | 30982.3696152979 | 3078.64038470207 |
| 37 | 5921.1 | 7037.79247075986 | -1116.69247075986 |
| 38 | 5814.58 | 7850.47035009641 | -2035.89035009641 |
| 39 | 12421.25 | 11883.4194163748 | 537.830583625248 |
| 40 | 6369.77 | 7142.76230407558 | -772.992304075576 |
| 41 | 7609.12 | 8259.76627715667 | -650.64627715667 |
| 42 | 7224.75 | 8352.00768933597 | -1127.25768933597 |
| 43 | 8121.22 | 9033.51954392351 | -912.299543923514 |
| 44 | 7979.25 | 9798.31620205185 | -1819.06620205185 |
| 45 | 8093.06 | 10068.6583729870 | -1975.59837298696 |
| 46 | 8476.7 | 10990.3934007887 | -2513.69340078874 |
| 47 | 17914.66 | 16193.0584062714 | 1721.60159372864 |
| 48 | 30114.41 | 34906.5354178772 | -4792.12541787723 |
| 49 | 4826.64 | 6347.97321754052 | -1521.33321754052 |
| 50 | 6470.23 | 5905.6320364054 | 564.597963594599 |
| 51 | 9638.77 | 12222.7109280304 | -2583.94092803038 |
| 52 | 8821.17 | 5773.11630715854 | 3048.05369284146 |
| 53 | 8722.37 | 6818.52595789346 | 1903.84404210654 |
| 54 | 10209.48 | 6281.50458368025 | 3927.97541631975 |
| 55 | 11276.55 | 7175.53015812463 | 4101.01984187537 |
| 56 | 12552.22 | 7164.44562171028 | 5387.77437828972 |
| 57 | 11637.39 | 7598.42318225773 | 4038.96681774227 |
| 58 | 13606.89 | 8416.10145367728 | 5190.78854632272 |
| 59 | 21822.11 | 18389.2166432832 | 3432.89335671677 |
| 60 | 45060.69 | 31265.6354398877 | 13795.0545601123 |
| 61 | 7615.03 | 7216.43227988702 | 398.597720112984 |
| 62 | 9849.69 | 9801.81541571563 | 47.8745842843691 |
| 63 | 14558.4 | 13962.0634179994 | 596.336582000629 |
| 64 | 11587.33 | 14094.5243893338 | -2507.19438933385 |
| 65 | 9332.56 | 14781.3515428740 | -5448.79154287396 |
| 66 | 13082.09 | 16784.5382363052 | -3702.4482363052 |
| 67 | 16732.78 | 18235.1429173245 | -1502.3629173245 |
| 68 | 19888.61 | 19791.7198746731 | 96.890125326856 |
| 69 | 23933.38 | 19106.5311617616 | 4826.84883823835 |
| 70 | 25391.35 | 21401.2096825952 | 3990.14031740477 |
| 71 | 36024.8 | 29935.4930251932 | 6089.30697480676 |
| 72 | 80721.71 | 53370.4531563743 | 27351.2568436257 |
| 73 | 10243.24 | 17176.2054264752 | -6932.96542647522 |
| 74 | 11266.88 | 19759.3155481584 | -8492.43554815835 |
| 75 | 21826.84 | 24583.4708185425 | -2756.63081854247 |
| 76 | 17357.33 | 21847.8988074668 | -4490.56880746677 |
| 77 | 15997.79 | 19811.6525941686 | -3813.86259416864 |
| 78 | 18601.53 | 23792.0760980126 | -5190.54609801263 |
| 79 | 26155.15 | 27562.8301822428 | -1407.68018224283 |
| 80 | 28586.52 | 30888.5779340407 | -2302.05793404075 |
| 81 | 30505.41 | 34927.7001630747 | -4422.29016307467 |
| 82 | 30821.33 | 36149.5466525105 | -5328.21665251051 |
| 83 | 46634.38 | 46277.2113898907 | 357.168610109307 |
| 84 | 104660.67 | 90002.0590601568 | 14658.6109398432 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 85 | 19336.9378138813 | 9416.57292639255 | 29257.3027013701 |
| 86 | 20038.9983093786 | 10109.1377888585 | 29968.8588298986 |
| 87 | 30337.6994041606 | 20386.5068382857 | 40288.8919700354 |
| 88 | 25705.1931316368 | 15716.1894121775 | 35694.1968510962 |
| 89 | 24266.1118055363 | 14218.3130088962 | 34313.9106021764 |
| 90 | 26903.8900161447 | 16772.0256880793 | 37035.75434421 |
| 91 | 34522.3510863972 | 24277.1725692074 | 44767.5296035869 |
| 92 | 37068.9357914634 | 26677.6158490267 | 47460.2557339002 |
| 93 | 39199.8090558353 | 28626.4244566946 | 49773.193654976 |
| 94 | 39844.3043641751 | 29050.3837010006 | 50638.2250273495 |
| 95 | 55978.1141085073 | 44923.2256161348 | 67033.0026008798 |
| 96 | 114004.404108507 | 102646.753999570 | 125362.054217444 |
