| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 1 |
| beta | 0.384583602218265 |
| gamma | FALSE |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 3 | 5107.4 | 5010.5 | 96.9000000000005 |
| 4 | 5202.1 | 5039.26615105495 | 162.833848945051 |
| 5 | 5307.5 | 5196.5893792453 | 110.910620754697 |
| 6 | 5266.1 | 5344.64378529941 | -78.5437852994073 |
| 7 | 5329.8 | 5273.03713341710 | 56.7628665828961 |
| 8 | 5263.4 | 5358.56720111979 | -95.1672011197888 |
| 9 | 5177.1 | 5255.56745610011 | -78.4674561001093 |
| 10 | 5204.9 | 5139.09015917623 | 65.8098408237729 |
| 11 | 5185.2 | 5192.19954482164 | -6.99954482164321 |
| 12 | 5189.8 | 5169.80763466025 | 19.9923653397527 |
| 13 | 5253.8 | 5182.09637053947 | 71.7036294605268 |
| 14 | 5372.3 | 5273.67241064953 | 98.6275893504735 |
| 15 | 5478.4 | 5430.10296424004 | 48.2970357599643 |
| 16 | 5590.5 | 5554.77721222907 | 35.7227877709338 |
| 17 | 5699.8 | 5680.61561063129 | 19.1843893687092 |
| 18 | 5797.9 | 5797.29361220107 | 0.606387798932701 |
| 19 | 5854.3 | 5895.62681900512 | -41.3268190051213 |
| 20 | 5902.4 | 5936.13320208391 | -33.7332020839103 |
| 21 | 5956.9 | 5971.25996571212 | -14.3599657121231 |
| 22 | 6007.8 | 6020.23735837082 | -12.4373583708229 |
| 23 | 6101.7 | 6066.35415428649 | 35.3458457135066 |
| 24 | 6148.6 | 6173.84758695444 | -25.2475869544442 |
| 25 | 6207.4 | 6211.03777901619 | -3.63777901618596 |
| 26 | 6232 | 6268.43874885807 | -36.438748858066 |
| 27 | 6291.7 | 6279.0250035619 | 12.6749964380951 |
| 28 | 6323.4 | 6343.59959935017 | -20.1995993501714 |
| 29 | 6365 | 6367.53116466872 | -2.53116466871597 |
| 30 | 6435 | 6408.15772024261 | 26.8422797573858 |
| 31 | 6493.4 | 6488.48082088346 | 4.91917911653945 |
| 32 | 6606.8 | 6548.77265650806 | 58.0273434919445 |
| 33 | 6639.1 | 6684.48902129535 | -45.3890212953447 |
| 34 | 6723.5 | 6699.33314798442 | 24.1668520155799 |
| 35 | 6759.4 | 6793.02732298685 | -33.6273229868475 |
| 36 | 6848.6 | 6815.99480597961 | 32.6051940203924 |
| 37 | 6918.1 | 6917.734228947 | 0.365771053004210 |
| 38 | 6963.5 | 6987.37489849615 | -23.8748984961476 |
| 39 | 7013.1 | 7023.5930040299 | -10.4930040299032 |
| 40 | 7030.9 | 7069.15756674199 | -38.2575667419933 |
| 41 | 7112.1 | 7072.24433391225 | 39.8556660877493 |
| 42 | 7130.3 | 7168.77216954509 | -38.4721695450862 |
| 43 | 7130.8 | 7172.17640399629 | -41.3764039962853 |
| 44 | 7076.9 | 7156.76371750056 | -79.863717500556 |
| 45 | 7040.8 | 7072.14944133765 | -31.3494413376493 |
| 46 | 7086.5 | 7023.99296026049 | 62.5070397395139 |
| 47 | 7120.7 | 7093.7321427675 | 26.9678572324910 |
| 48 | 7154.1 | 7138.30353844609 | 15.7964615539122 |
| 49 | 7228.2 | 7177.7785985328 | 50.4214014672052 |
| 50 | 7297.9 | 7271.26984273795 | 26.6301572620541 |
| 51 | 7369.5 | 7351.21136454542 | 18.2886354545753 |
| 52 | 7450.7 | 7429.8448738482 | 20.8551261517978 |
| 53 | 7459.7 | 7519.06541338838 | -59.3654133883765 |
| 54 | 7497.5 | 7505.2344488603 | -7.73444886029847 |
| 55 | 7536 | 7540.05990665643 | -4.05990665643185 |
| 56 | 7637.4 | 7576.99853312983 | 60.4014668701684 |
| 57 | 7715.1 | 7701.62794683803 | 13.4720531619723 |
| 58 | 7815.7 | 7784.50907757234 | 31.1909224276642 |
| 59 | 7859.5 | 7897.10459487608 | -37.6045948760766 |
| 60 | 7951.6 | 7926.44248431868 | 25.1575156813233 |
| 61 | 7973.7 | 8028.21765232226 | -54.5176523222635 |
| 62 | 7988 | 8029.35105720768 | -41.3510572076839 |
| 63 | 8053.1 | 8027.74811867122 | 25.351881328781 |
| 64 | 8112 | 8102.59803651565 | 9.40196348434802 |
| 65 | 8169.2 | 8165.11387750039 | 4.08612249961334 |
| 66 | 8303.1 | 8223.88533321039 | 79.2146667896068 |
| 67 | 8372.7 | 8388.24999511286 | -15.5499951128604 |
| 68 | 8470.6 | 8451.86972197788 | 18.7302780221198 |
| 69 | 8536.1 | 8556.97307977018 | -20.8730797701755 |
| 70 | 8665.8 | 8614.44563556277 | 51.3543644372257 |
| 71 | 8773.7 | 8763.89568202767 | 9.80431797232995 |
| 72 | 8838.4 | 8875.56626195076 | -37.1662619507642 |
| 73 | 8936.2 | 8925.97272704875 | 10.2272729512515 |
| 74 | 8995.3 | 9027.70596852121 | -32.4059685212142 |
| 75 | 9098.9 | 9074.34316441395 | 24.5568355860487 |
| 76 | 9237.1 | 9187.38732070272 | 49.7126792972849 |
| 77 | 9315.5 | 9344.70600198279 | -29.2060019827877 |
| 78 | 9392.6 | 9411.87385253385 | -19.2738525338518 |
| 79 | 9502.2 | 9481.56144489776 | 20.6385551022395 |
| 80 | 9671.1 | 9599.09869476356 | 72.0013052364393 |
| 81 | 9695.6 | 9795.6892160958 | -100.089216095806 |
| 82 | 9847.9 | 9781.69654482648 | 66.2034551735196 |
| 83 | 9836.6 | 9959.4573080964 | -122.857308096407 |
| 84 | 9887.7 | 9900.90840198985 | -13.2084019898521 |
| 85 | 9875.6 | 9946.92866717305 | -71.3286671730475 |
| 86 | 9905.9 | 9907.3968314102 | -1.49683141020978 |
| 87 | 9871.1 | 9937.12117459456 | -66.0211745945562 |
| 88 | 9910 | 9876.9305134463 | 33.0694865536989 |
| 89 | 9977.3 | 9928.54849570863 | 48.7515042913674 |
| 90 | 10031.6 | 10014.5975248426 | 17.0024751574365 |
| 91 | 10090.7 | 10075.4363979852 | 15.263602014762 |
| 92 | 10095.8 | 10140.4065290309 | -44.6065290309034 |
| 93 | 10126 | 10128.3515894137 | -2.35158941374175 |
| 94 | 10212.7 | 10157.6472066861 | 55.0527933139329 |
| 95 | 10398.7 | 10265.5196082509 | 133.180391749082 |
| 96 | 10467 | 10502.7386030546 | -35.7386030546204 |
| 97 | 10543.6 | 10557.2941223536 | -13.6941223536251 |
| 98 | 10634.2 | 10628.6275874497 | 5.57241255034933 |
| 99 | 10728.7 | 10721.3706459413 | 7.3293540586892 |
| 100 | 10796.4 | 10818.6893953271 | -22.2893953271359 |
| 101 | 10875.8 | 10877.8172593810 | -2.01725938095842 |
| 102 | 10946.1 | 10956.4414545016 | -10.3414545016185 |
| 103 | 11050 | 11022.7643006772 | 27.2356993227877 |
| 104 | 11086.1 | 11137.1387040317 | -51.0387040317019 |
| 105 | 11217.3 | 11153.6100553826 | 63.6899446173593 |
| 106 | 11291.7 | 11309.3041637087 | -17.6041637086637 |
| 107 | 11314.1 | 11376.9338910155 | -62.8338910155471 |
| 108 | 11356.4 | 11375.1690068674 | -18.7690068673983 |
| 109 | 11357.8 | 11410.2507545963 | -52.4507545962751 |
| 110 | 11491.4 | 11391.4790544546 | 99.9209455454275 |
| 111 | 11625.7 | 11563.5070116295 | 62.1929883705125 |
| 112 | 11620.7 | 11721.7254151297 | -101.025415129739 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 113 | 11677.8726970635 | 11578.6811236784 | 11777.0642704487 |
| 114 | 11735.0453941271 | 11565.6317692625 | 11904.4590189917 |
| 115 | 11792.2180911906 | 11548.2990873031 | 12036.1370950782 |
| 116 | 11849.3907882542 | 11525.144065813 | 12173.6375106954 |
