| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 1 |
| beta | 0.349598912015212 |
| gamma | FALSE |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 3 | 1768 | 1766.8 | 1.20000000000005 |
| 4 | 1794.8 | 1765.71951869442 | 29.0804813055818 |
| 5 | 1823.4 | 1802.68602331973 | 20.7139766802718 |
| 6 | 1856.9 | 1838.52760703066 | 18.3723929693401 |
| 7 | 1866.9 | 1878.45057562386 | -11.550575623857 |
| 8 | 1869.8 | 1884.41250695261 | -14.6125069526074 |
| 9 | 1843.8 | 1882.20399042016 | -38.4039904201609 |
| 10 | 1837.1 | 1842.77799715223 | -5.67799715223009 |
| 11 | 1857.7 | 1834.09297552538 | 23.6070244746152 |
| 12 | 1840.3 | 1862.94596559763 | -22.6459655976271 |
| 13 | 1914.6 | 1837.62896066316 | 76.9710393368373 |
| 14 | 1972.9 | 1938.837952272 | 34.0620477279992 |
| 15 | 2050.1 | 2009.04600709872 | 41.05399290128 |
| 16 | 2086.2 | 2100.59843835089 | -14.3984383508878 |
| 17 | 2112.5 | 2131.6647599687 | -19.1647599686989 |
| 18 | 2147.6 | 2151.26478073461 | -3.66478073460939 |
| 19 | 2190.4 | 2185.08357737702 | 5.31642262298465 |
| 20 | 2194.1 | 2229.74219294182 | -35.6421929418243 |
| 21 | 2216.2 | 2220.98172106753 | -4.78172106752618 |
| 22 | 2218.6 | 2241.41003658476 | -22.8100365847586 |
| 23 | 2233.5 | 2235.8356726117 | -2.33567261169992 |
| 24 | 2307.2 | 2249.91912400783 | 57.2808759921741 |
| 25 | 2350.4 | 2343.64445593397 | 6.75554406603214 |
| 26 | 2368.2 | 2389.20618678952 | -21.0061867895242 |
| 27 | 2353.8 | 2399.66244674232 | -45.8624467423174 |
| 28 | 2316.5 | 2369.22898525885 | -52.7289852588483 |
| 29 | 2305.5 | 2313.49498938069 | -7.99498938068837 |
| 30 | 2308.4 | 2299.69994979163 | 8.70005020837334 |
| 31 | 2334.4 | 2305.64147787895 | 28.7585221210484 |
| 32 | 2381.2 | 2341.69542592364 | 39.504574076364 |
| 33 | 2449.7 | 2402.30618204036 | 47.393817959643 |
| 34 | 2490.3 | 2487.37500923529 | 2.9249907647054 |
| 35 | 2523.5 | 2528.99758282429 | -5.49758282429093 |
| 36 | 2537.6 | 2560.2756338502 | -22.675633850205 |
| 37 | 2526.1 | 2566.44825692692 | -40.3482569269181 |
| 38 | 2545.9 | 2540.84255020356 | 5.05744979644305 |
| 39 | 2542.7 | 2562.41062914997 | -19.7106291499654 |
| 40 | 2584.3 | 2552.319814644 | 31.9801853559984 |
| 41 | 2600.2 | 2605.1000526505 | -4.90005265050422 |
| 42 | 2593.9 | 2619.28699957507 | -25.3869995750701 |
| 43 | 2618.9 | 2604.1117321443 | 14.7882678557048 |
| 44 | 2591.3 | 2634.28169449724 | -42.981694497239 |
| 45 | 2521.2 | 2591.65534086443 | -70.4553408644347 |
| 46 | 2536.6 | 2496.92423035257 | 39.6757696474333 |
| 47 | 2596.1 | 2526.19483625468 | 69.9051637453244 |
| 48 | 2656.6 | 2610.13360544429 | 46.4663945557136 |
| 49 | 2710.3 | 2686.87820642623 | 23.421793573767 |
| 50 | 2778.8 | 2748.76643997707 | 30.0335600229328 |
| 51 | 2775.5 | 2827.76613988503 | -52.2661398850282 |
| 52 | 2785.2 | 2806.19395424599 | -20.9939542459874 |
| 53 | 2847.7 | 2808.55449068269 | 39.1455093173072 |
| 54 | 2834.4 | 2884.7397181503 | -50.3397181503046 |
| 55 | 2839 | 2853.84100745381 | -14.841007453806 |
| 56 | 2802.6 | 2853.25260739475 | -50.6526073947457 |
| 57 | 2819.3 | 2799.14451095881 | 20.1554890411912 |
| 58 | 2872 | 2822.89084799874 | 49.109152001256 |
| 59 | 2918.4 | 2892.75935410837 | 25.6406458916276 |
| 60 | 2977.8 | 2948.12329601545 | 29.6767039845472 |
| 61 | 3031.2 | 3017.89823944065 | 13.3017605593514 |
| 62 | 3064.7 | 3075.94852046008 | -11.2485204600844 |
| 63 | 3093 | 3105.51604994546 | -12.5160499454578 |
| 64 | 3100.6 | 3129.4404525018 | -28.8404525017982 |
| 65 | 3141.1 | 3126.95786168514 | 14.1421383148572 |
| 66 | 3180.4 | 3172.40193785359 | 7.99806214641467 |
| 67 | 3240.3 | 3214.4980516782 | 25.8019483217977 |
| 68 | 3265 | 3283.41838473938 | -18.4183847393756 |
| 69 | 3338.2 | 3301.67933747341 | 36.5206625265878 |
| 70 | 3376.6 | 3387.64692135878 | -11.0469213587817 |
| 71 | 3422.5 | 3422.18492967063 | 0.315070329365881 |
| 72 | 3432 | 3468.19507791499 | -36.1950779149888 |
| 73 | 3516.3 | 3465.0413180556 | 51.2586819443973 |
| 74 | 3564 | 3567.2612974947 | -3.26129749469828 |
| 75 | 3636.3 | 3613.82115143879 | 22.4788485612066 |
| 76 | 3724 | 3693.97973243915 | 30.0202675608539 |
| 77 | 3815.4 | 3792.17478531683 | 23.2252146831738 |
| 78 | 3828.1 | 3891.69429510138 | -63.5942951013835 |
| 79 | 3853.3 | 3882.16179872357 | -28.8617987235652 |
| 80 | 3884.5 | 3897.27174529101 | -12.7717452910051 |
| 81 | 3918.7 | 3924.00675703273 | -5.30675703273437 |
| 82 | 3919.6 | 3956.35152054776 | -36.7515205477612 |
| 83 | 3950.8 | 3944.40322894936 | 6.39677105064129 |
| 84 | 3981 | 3977.83953314907 | 3.16046685092624 |
| 85 | 4063 | 4009.14442892162 | 53.8555710783826 |
| 86 | 4132 | 4109.97227797658 | 22.027722023422 |
| 87 | 4160.3 | 4186.67314563014 | -26.3731456301393 |
| 88 | 4178.3 | 4205.75312261142 | -27.4531226114241 |
| 89 | 4244.1 | 4214.15554081505 | 29.9444591849497 |
| 90 | 4256.5 | 4290.42409116699 | -33.9240911669931 |
| 91 | 4283.4 | 4290.96426580391 | -7.5642658039078 |
| 92 | 4263.3 | 4315.21980670867 | -51.9198067086663 |
| 93 | 4256.6 | 4276.96869877128 | -20.3686987712772 |
| 94 | 4264.3 | 4263.14782384167 | 1.15217615832626 |
| 95 | 4302.3 | 4271.25062337307 | 31.0493766269256 |
| 96 | 4256.6 | 4320.1054516606 | -63.5054516605978 |
| 97 | 4374 | 4252.20401485302 | 121.795985146981 |
| 98 | 4398.8 | 4412.18375874822 | -13.383758748224 |
| 99 | 4433.9 | 4432.30481125117 | 1.59518874882906 |
| 100 | 4446.3 | 4467.96248750222 | -21.6624875022198 |
| 101 | 4525.8 | 4472.7893054399 | 53.0106945600992 |
| 102 | 4633.1 | 4570.82178658328 | 62.2782134167182 |
| 103 | 4677.5 | 4699.89418223602 | -22.3941822360184 |
| 104 | 4754.5 | 4736.46520049084 | 18.0347995091643 |
| 105 | 4876.2 | 4819.77014677765 | 56.4298532223474 |
| 106 | 4932.6 | 4961.19796206936 | -28.5979620693624 |
| 107 | 4906.3 | 5007.60014564406 | -101.300145644062 |
| 108 | 4953.1 | 4945.88572493992 | 7.21427506008513 |
| 109 | 4909.6 | 4995.2078276519 | -85.6078276518992 |
| 110 | 4922.2 | 4921.77942424481 | 0.42057575518993 |
| 111 | 4873.5 | 4934.52645707124 | -61.0264570712434 |
| 112 | 4854.3 | 4864.49167407499 | -10.1916740749939 |
| 113 | 4795.3 | 4841.72867590676 | -46.4286759067627 |
| 114 | 4831.9 | 4766.49726132345 | 65.4027386765483 |
| 115 | 4913.3 | 4825.96198760759 | 87.3380123924126 |
| 116 | 4977.5 | 4937.89526171755 | 39.6047382824536 |
| 117 | 5090.7 | 5015.94103513174 | 74.7589648682606 |
| 118 | 5128.9 | 5155.27668791307 | -26.3766879130671 |
| 119 | 5154.1 | 5184.25542651609 | -30.155426516093 |
| 120 | 5191.5 | 5198.91312221471 | -7.41312221471344 |
| 121 | 5251.8 | 5233.72150275381 | 18.078497246187 |
| 122 | 5356.1 | 5300.34172572195 | 55.7582742780496 |
| 123 | 5451.9 | 5424.1347577454 | 27.7652422545971 |
| 124 | 5450.8 | 5529.64145622945 | -78.8414562294474 |
| 125 | 5469.4 | 5500.97856890994 | -31.5785689099384 |
| 126 | 5684.6 | 5508.53873557603 | 176.061264423975 |
| 127 | 5740.3 | 5785.28956206667 | -44.9895620666703 |
| 128 | 5816.2 | 5825.26126011612 | -9.06126011612196 |
| 129 | 5825.9 | 5897.99345343804 | -72.0934534380385 |
| 130 | 5831.4 | 5882.48966055268 | -51.0896605526805 |
| 131 | 5873.3 | 5870.12877080824 | 3.17122919176381 |
| 132 | 5889.5 | 5913.13742908343 | -23.6374290834283 |
| 133 | 5908.5 | 5921.07380959303 | -12.5738095930255 |
| 134 | 5787.4 | 5935.67801943942 | -148.278019439417 |
| 135 | 5776.6 | 5762.74018516763 | 13.8598148323745 |
| 136 | 5883.5 | 5756.78556135376 | 126.714438646243 |
| 137 | 6005.7 | 5907.9847912411 | 97.7152087588984 |
| 138 | 5957.8 | 6064.34592191055 | -106.545921910551 |
| 139 | 6030.2 | 5979.19758353097 | 51.002416469034 |
| 140 | 5955.1 | 6069.42797283869 | -114.327972838686 |
| 141 | 5857.3 | 5954.35903792138 | -97.0590379213772 |
| 142 | 5889.1 | 5822.62730386282 | 66.4726961371798 |
| 143 | 5866.4 | 5877.6660861111 | -11.2660861110971 |
| 144 | 5871 | 5851.02747466399 | 19.9725253360129 |
| 145 | 5944 | 5862.60984779165 | 81.390152208346 |
| 146 | 6077.6 | 5964.06375645244 | 113.536243547556 |
| 147 | 6197.5 | 6137.35590367096 | 60.144096329036 |
| 148 | 6325.6 | 6278.28221431173 | 47.3177856882676 |
| 149 | 6448.3 | 6422.92446070732 | 25.3755392926796 |
| 150 | 6559.6 | 6554.49572163584 | 5.10427836415965 |
| 151 | 6623.3 | 6667.58017179857 | -44.2801717985731 |
| 152 | 6677.3 | 6715.79987191395 | -38.4998719139458 |
| 153 | 6740.3 | 6756.3403585801 | -16.040358580105 |
| 154 | 6797.3 | 6813.73266667217 | -16.4326666721663 |
| 155 | 6903.5 | 6864.98782428207 | 38.5121757179313 |
| 156 | 6955.9 | 6984.6516390124 | -28.7516390123965 |
| 157 | 7022.8 | 7027.00009729501 | -4.20009729500725 |
| 158 | 7051 | 7092.43174785032 | -41.4317478503153 |
| 159 | 7119 | 7106.14725387896 | 12.8527461210433 |
| 160 | 7153.4 | 7178.64055993928 | -25.2405599392814 |
| 161 | 7193 | 7204.21648764585 | -11.2164876458528 |
| 162 | 7269.5 | 7239.89521576823 | 29.6047842317685 |
| 163 | 7332.6 | 7326.7450161261 | 5.85498387389725 |
| 164 | 7458 | 7391.89191211828 | 66.1080878817156 |
| 165 | 7496.6 | 7540.40322771714 | -43.8032277171378 |
| 166 | 7592.9 | 7563.68966696447 | 29.2103330355276 |
| 167 | 7632.1 | 7670.20156761329 | -38.1015676132938 |
| 168 | 7734 | 7696.08130102961 | 37.9186989703867 |
| 169 | 7806.6 | 7811.23763693469 | -4.63763693469173 |
| 170 | 7865 | 7882.216324108 | -17.2163241080025 |
| 171 | 7927.4 | 7934.59751593094 | -7.19751593094406 |
| 172 | 7944.7 | 7994.48127219227 | -49.7812721922728 |
| 173 | 8027.7 | 7994.37779359512 | 33.3222064048787 |
| 174 | 8059.6 | 8089.02720070021 | -29.4272007002128 |
| 175 | 8059.5 | 8110.63948335177 | -51.1394833517661 |
| 176 | 7988.9 | 8092.66117561097 | -103.761175610968 |
| 177 | 7950.2 | 7985.78638150795 | -35.5863815079538 |
| 178 | 8003.8 | 7934.64542125021 | 69.1545787497853 |
| 179 | 8037.5 | 8012.42178674201 | 25.0782132579898 |
| 180 | 8069 | 8054.88910281229 | 14.1108971877111 |
| 181 | 8157.6 | 8091.32225711667 | 66.2777428833288 |
| 182 | 8244.3 | 8203.09288391951 | 41.2071160804917 |
| 183 | 8329.4 | 8304.19884686853 | 25.2011531314693 |
| 184 | 8417 | 8398.10914258482 | 18.8908574151792 |
| 185 | 8432.5 | 8492.3133657842 | -59.8133657842027 |
| 186 | 8486.4 | 8486.90267818208 | -0.502678182077943 |
| 187 | 8531.1 | 8540.62694243653 | -9.52694243652877 |
| 188 | 8643.8 | 8581.99633372589 | 61.8036662741124 |
| 189 | 8727.9 | 8716.30282821387 | 11.5971717861321 |
| 190 | 8847.3 | 8804.45718685275 | 42.8428131472465 |
| 191 | 8904.3 | 8938.8349877167 | -34.5349877167009 |
| 192 | 9003.2 | 8983.76159358448 | 19.4384064155165 |
| 193 | 9025.3 | 9089.45723931866 | -64.1572393186598 |
| 194 | 9044.7 | 9089.12793825495 | -44.4279382549539 |
| 195 | 9120.7 | 9092.99597937795 | 27.7040206220554 |
| 196 | 9184.3 | 9178.68127484586 | 5.61872515413597 |
| 197 | 9247.2 | 9244.24557504666 | 2.954424953341 |
| 198 | 9407.1 | 9308.17843879598 | 98.9215612040207 |
| 199 | 9488.9 | 9502.66130896775 | -13.7613089677525 |
| 200 | 9592.5 | 9579.65037032472 | 12.8496296752801 |
| 201 | 9666.2 | 9687.742586879 | -21.5425868789953 |
| 202 | 9809.6 | 9753.9113219441 | 55.6886780558925 |
| 203 | 9932.7 | 9916.78002320401 | 15.919976795989 |
| 204 | 10008.9 | 10045.4456297712 | -36.5456297711971 |
| 205 | 10103.4 | 10108.8693173643 | -5.46931736427541 |
| 206 | 10194.3 | 10201.4572499643 | -7.15724996425888 |
| 207 | 10328.8 | 10289.8550831637 | 38.9449168362662 |
| 208 | 10507.6 | 10437.9701837182 | 69.6298162817857 |
| 209 | 10601.2 | 10641.1126917341 | -39.9126917341455 |
| 210 | 10684 | 10720.7592581283 | -36.7592581282915 |
| 211 | 10819.9 | 10790.7082614802 | 29.1917385198467 |
| 212 | 11014.3 | 10936.8136615065 | 77.486338493476 |
| 213 | 11043 | 11158.3028011399 | -115.302801139886 |
| 214 | 11258.5 | 11146.6930673091 | 111.806932690924 |
| 215 | 11267.9 | 11401.2806493336 | -133.380649333581 |
| 216 | 11334.5 | 11364.0509194427 | -29.5509194426777 |
| 217 | 11297.2 | 11420.3199501565 | -123.119950156468 |
| 218 | 11371.3 | 11339.9773495344 | 31.3226504655977 |
| 219 | 11340.1 | 11425.0277140586 | -84.9277140586055 |
| 220 | 11380.1 | 11364.1370776238 | 15.9629223762204 |
| 221 | 11477.9 | 11409.7176979191 | 68.1823020809097 |
| 222 | 11538.8 | 11531.3541565453 | 7.44584345473231 |
| 223 | 11596.4 | 11594.8572153161 | 1.54278468392295 |
| 224 | 11598.8 | 11652.9965711631 | -54.196571163051 |
| 225 | 11645.8 | 11636.4495088495 | 9.35049115050606 |
| 226 | 11738.7 | 11686.7184303825 | 51.9815696174828 |
| 227 | 11935.5 | 11797.7911305656 | 137.708869434366 |
| 228 | 12042.8 | 12042.7340014947 | 0.0659985052661796 |
| 229 | 12127.6 | 12150.0570745004 | -22.4570745003675 |
| 230 | 12213.8 | 12227.006105688 | -13.2061056879957 |
| 231 | 12303.5 | 12308.5892655075 | -5.08926550751312 |
| 232 | 12410.3 | 12396.5100638231 | 13.7899361768687 |
| 233 | 12534.1 | 12508.1310105073 | 25.9689894926778 |
| 234 | 12587.5 | 12641.0097409801 | -53.5097409800983 |
| 235 | 12683.2 | 12675.7027937512 | 7.49720624876136 |
| 236 | 12748.7 | 12774.023808899 | -25.3238088989601 |
| 237 | 12915.9 | 12830.6706328598 | 85.2293671401967 |
| 238 | 12962.5 | 13027.6667268838 | -65.1667268837591 |
| 239 | 12965.9 | 13051.4845100656 | -85.5845100656061 |
| 240 | 13060.7 | 13024.9642584613 | 35.7357415386869 |
| 241 | 13099.9 | 13132.2574348233 | -32.3574348232978 |
| 242 | 13204 | 13160.1453108135 | 43.8546891865317 |
| 243 | 13321.1 | 13279.5768624398 | 41.5231375601543 |
| 244 | 13391.2 | 13411.1933061543 | -19.9933061543325 |
| 245 | 13366.9 | 13474.3036680752 | -107.403668075192 |
| 246 | 13415.3 | 13412.4554625697 | 2.84453743033919 |
| 247 | 13324.6 | 13461.8499097605 | -137.249909760492 |
| 248 | 13141.9 | 13323.167490634 | -181.26749063404 |
| 249 | 12925.4 | 13077.0965731247 | -151.696573124651 |
| 250 | 12901.5 | 12807.5636162038 | 93.9363837961628 |
| 251 | 12973 | 12816.5036737776 | 156.496326222381 |
| 252 | 13155 | 12942.7146191593 | 212.285380840658 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 253 | 13198.929357338 | 13092.8158904422 | 13305.0428242337 |
| 254 | 13242.8587146759 | 13064.6191304462 | 13421.0982989057 |
| 255 | 13286.7880720139 | 13033.2525872235 | 13540.3235568043 |
| 256 | 13330.7174293519 | 12996.7336822926 | 13664.7011764112 |
