| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 0.125193707172277 |
| beta | 0.0321269389080147 |
| gamma | 0.396056119292007 |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 13 | 2072 | 2006.68440258248 | 65.3155974175247 |
| 14 | 2434 | 2346.39287836549 | 87.607121634514 |
| 15 | 2956 | 2836.39858085195 | 119.601419148053 |
| 16 | 2828 | 2731.91362651944 | 96.0863734805648 |
| 17 | 2687 | 2640.20233475900 | 46.797665241003 |
| 18 | 2629 | 2614.57841515656 | 14.4215848434351 |
| 19 | 3150 | 2782.61972645414 | 367.380273545858 |
| 20 | 4119 | 3810.03975875582 | 308.960241244179 |
| 21 | 3030 | 2684.05701703421 | 345.942982965794 |
| 22 | 3055 | 3630.00274378242 | -575.002743782422 |
| 23 | 3821 | 4467.44341770354 | -646.443417703535 |
| 24 | 4001 | 4305.61930252181 | -304.61930252181 |
| 25 | 2529 | 2281.31173021894 | 247.688269781060 |
| 26 | 2472 | 2696.56519508368 | -224.565195083681 |
| 27 | 3134 | 3214.07376951865 | -80.073769518654 |
| 28 | 2789 | 3060.17379420265 | -271.173794202645 |
| 29 | 2758 | 2891.23054258321 | -133.230542583205 |
| 30 | 2993 | 2824.7088875317 | 168.291112468299 |
| 31 | 3282 | 3153.18331542525 | 128.816684574754 |
| 32 | 3437 | 4192.97405227788 | -755.974052277884 |
| 33 | 2804 | 2896.73829938057 | -92.7382993805713 |
| 34 | 3076 | 3463.36294829674 | -387.362948296744 |
| 35 | 3782 | 4299.54189011614 | -517.54189011614 |
| 36 | 3889 | 4261.80826900495 | -372.808269004947 |
| 37 | 2271 | 2390.40331232745 | -119.403312327445 |
| 38 | 2452 | 2585.69124967042 | -133.691249670419 |
| 39 | 3084 | 3150.80546676277 | -66.8054667627653 |
| 40 | 2522 | 2925.53219914797 | -403.532199147966 |
| 41 | 2769 | 2781.15196243472 | -12.1519624347188 |
| 42 | 3438 | 2825.12146833713 | 612.878531662873 |
| 43 | 2839 | 3188.20831564264 | -349.208315642635 |
| 44 | 3746 | 3830.04672401753 | -84.0467240175308 |
| 45 | 2632 | 2845.84390966825 | -213.843909668252 |
| 46 | 2851 | 3280.28633671994 | -429.286336719936 |
| 47 | 3871 | 4040.14534565316 | -169.145345653155 |
| 48 | 3618 | 4085.64321439013 | -467.643214390134 |
| 49 | 2389 | 2309.93304647181 | 79.0669535281886 |
| 50 | 2344 | 2518.89393328109 | -174.893933281093 |
| 51 | 2678 | 3089.89421314685 | -411.894213146855 |
| 52 | 2492 | 2704.73420274229 | -212.734202742291 |
| 53 | 2858 | 2713.21286269809 | 144.787137301912 |
| 54 | 2246 | 2978.05763015226 | -732.057630152264 |
| 55 | 2800 | 2831.22238017626 | -31.2223801762616 |
| 56 | 3869 | 3542.86747186579 | 326.132528134206 |
| 57 | 3007 | 2612.72235820797 | 394.277641792029 |
| 58 | 3023 | 3028.77128534522 | -5.7712853452158 |
| 59 | 3907 | 3911.20909719863 | -4.20909719862857 |
| 60 | 4209 | 3867.06883554976 | 341.931164450237 |
| 61 | 2353 | 2363.01615714814 | -10.0161571481431 |
| 62 | 2570 | 2471.30432488283 | 98.6956751171679 |
| 63 | 2903 | 3001.04715244328 | -98.0471524432819 |
| 64 | 2910 | 2715.17584035319 | 194.824159646811 |
| 65 | 3782 | 2908.34781678921 | 873.652183210786 |
| 66 | 2759 | 2951.50445293781 | -192.504452937806 |
| 67 | 2931 | 3142.95957301546 | -211.959573015459 |
| 68 | 3641 | 4051.84652003429 | -410.846520034286 |
| 69 | 2794 | 2976.25565874145 | -182.255658741448 |
| 70 | 3070 | 3195.6641803373 | -125.664180337298 |
| 71 | 3576 | 4109.96752865424 | -533.967528654239 |
| 72 | 4106 | 4120.10908941213 | -14.1090894121326 |
| 73 | 2452 | 2411.09343463825 | 40.9065653617513 |
| 74 | 2206 | 2565.83325039367 | -359.833250393674 |
| 75 | 2488 | 2967.17985017809 | -479.179850178092 |
| 76 | 2416 | 2732.91512682599 | -316.915126825987 |
| 77 | 2534 | 3063.25844701153 | -529.258447011527 |
| 78 | 2521 | 2592.80590968855 | -71.8059096885477 |
| 79 | 3093 | 2761.03069836954 | 331.969301630463 |
| 80 | 3903 | 3587.54827993655 | 315.451720063454 |
| 81 | 2907 | 2731.51055778802 | 175.489442211976 |
| 82 | 3025 | 2996.81882502637 | 28.1811749736344 |
| 83 | 3812 | 3745.12475709111 | 66.8752429088913 |
| 84 | 4209 | 3998.77225601464 | 210.227743985358 |
| 85 | 2138 | 2370.78136571911 | -232.781365719107 |
| 86 | 2419 | 2346.49111561055 | 72.5088843894537 |
| 87 | 2622 | 2748.24707257249 | -126.247072572492 |
| 88 | 2912 | 2612.28682428414 | 299.713175715859 |
| 89 | 2708 | 2951.40556406562 | -243.405564065621 |
| 90 | 2798 | 2668.29987289974 | 129.700127100261 |
| 91 | 3254 | 3019.19011307488 | 234.809886925117 |
| 92 | 2895 | 3865.68067176837 | -970.680671768369 |
| 93 | 3263 | 2796.88139101464 | 466.11860898536 |
| 94 | 3736 | 3050.67837743679 | 685.32162256321 |
| 95 | 4077 | 3930.09579268135 | 146.904207318653 |
| 96 | 4097 | 4260.61214200891 | -163.612142008913 |
| 97 | 2175 | 2370.09476451141 | -195.094764511410 |
| 98 | 3138 | 2462.10353020859 | 675.896469791409 |
| 99 | 2823 | 2897.51364926012 | -74.5136492601241 |
| 100 | 2498 | 2921.0046531891 | -423.004653189102 |
| 101 | 2822 | 2987.33156401831 | -165.331564018306 |
| 102 | 2738 | 2839.60962813127 | -101.609628131268 |
| 103 | 4137 | 3211.91206070021 | 925.087939299788 |
| 104 | 3515 | 3745.42172085299 | -230.421720852994 |
| 105 | 3785 | 3229.25825010295 | 555.741749897047 |
| 106 | 3632 | 3595.60006447554 | 36.3999355244632 |
| 107 | 4504 | 4252.58830194226 | 251.411698057742 |
| 108 | 4451 | 4508.37179926193 | -57.371799261935 |
| 109 | 2550 | 2479.88389683950 | 70.1161031604966 |
| 110 | 2867 | 2942.10319674560 | -75.1031967456047 |
| 111 | 3458 | 3030.20757497546 | 427.792425024544 |
| 112 | 2961 | 2989.72167044481 | -28.721670444806 |
| 113 | 3163 | 3220.0325901477 | -57.0325901477031 |
| 114 | 2880 | 3102.55515167413 | -222.555151674134 |
| 115 | 3331 | 3884.91532425601 | -553.915324256011 |
| 116 | 3062 | 3833.51846524582 | -771.518465245816 |
| 117 | 3534 | 3510.45687256395 | 23.5431274360490 |
| 118 | 3622 | 3627.27895277377 | -5.27895277376638 |
| 119 | 4464 | 4351.11716344243 | 112.882836557567 |
| 120 | 5411 | 4477.1798134772 | 933.820186522797 |
| 121 | 2564 | 2566.22711446184 | -2.22711446184394 |
| 122 | 2820 | 2976.15993397383 | -156.159933973829 |
| 123 | 3508 | 3228.6427094204 | 279.357290579596 |
| 124 | 3088 | 3006.72945785923 | 81.2705421407677 |
| 125 | 3299 | 3242.10418447513 | 56.8958155248692 |
| 126 | 2939 | 3076.46546889192 | -137.465468891921 |
| 127 | 3320 | 3764.05441973576 | -444.054419735764 |
| 128 | 3418 | 3641.60513083321 | -223.605130833205 |
| 129 | 3604 | 3665.57747841546 | -61.5774784154555 |
| 130 | 3495 | 3766.41245680783 | -271.412456807835 |
| 131 | 4163 | 4520.02156947913 | -357.021569479127 |
| 132 | 4882 | 4867.27442517698 | 14.7255748230182 |
| 133 | 2211 | 2536.96871678841 | -325.968716788407 |
| 134 | 3260 | 2838.13414611879 | 421.865853881208 |
| 135 | 2992 | 3307.93248574866 | -315.932485748664 |
| 136 | 2425 | 2946.79597039393 | -521.795970393925 |
| 137 | 2707 | 3078.9868118905 | -371.986811890501 |
| 138 | 3244 | 2801.0461047987 | 442.953895201298 |
| 139 | 3965 | 3414.55101211349 | 550.448987886507 |
| 140 | 3315 | 3488.27560299426 | -173.275602994259 |
| 141 | 3333 | 3568.63999532627 | -235.639995326266 |
| 142 | 3583 | 3568.62463576879 | 14.3753642312063 |
| 143 | 4021 | 4308.7316226438 | -287.731622643799 |
| 144 | 4904 | 4779.49838278938 | 124.501617210616 |
| 145 | 2252 | 2380.83043525035 | -128.830435250346 |
| 146 | 2952 | 2956.79252418115 | -4.79252418114993 |
| 147 | 3573 | 3108.42207819868 | 464.577921801324 |
| 148 | 3048 | 2768.10331782691 | 279.896682173094 |
| 149 | 3059 | 3062.74851001720 | -3.74851001720481 |
| 150 | 2731 | 3117.22529966795 | -386.225299667947 |
| 151 | 3563 | 3672.98295548228 | -109.982955482281 |
| 152 | 3092 | 3412.31752853798 | -320.317528537983 |
| 153 | 3478 | 3448.96268315430 | 29.0373168456954 |
| 154 | 3478 | 3567.29143929519 | -89.2914392951898 |
| 155 | 4308 | 4183.54837152876 | 124.451628471235 |
| 156 | 5029 | 4852.26900531843 | 176.730994681573 |
| 157 | 2075 | 2353.25703410054 | -278.257034100538 |
| 158 | 3264 | 2952.15085465155 | 311.849145348455 |
| 159 | 3308 | 3307.36968573034 | 0.630314269658811 |
| 160 | 3688 | 2845.26743863561 | 842.73256136439 |
| 161 | 3136 | 3115.79939388806 | 20.2006061119350 |
| 162 | 2824 | 3038.10125461901 | -214.101254619015 |
| 163 | 3644 | 3731.10337236326 | -87.1033723632554 |
| 164 | 4694 | 3392.18642699610 | 1301.81357300390 |
| 165 | 2914 | 3779.56839876408 | -865.568398764083 |
| 166 | 3686 | 3754.58016790621 | -68.5801679062129 |
| 167 | 4358 | 4497.78163549096 | -139.781635490962 |
| 168 | 5587 | 5195.1997465914 | 391.800253408599 |
| 169 | 2265 | 2399.6679296203 | -134.667929620299 |
| 170 | 3685 | 3285.41328892342 | 399.586711076584 |
| 171 | 3754 | 3565.51555948623 | 188.484440513767 |
| 172 | 3708 | 3399.09318361850 | 308.906816381505 |
| 173 | 3210 | 3314.01229927252 | -104.012299272516 |
| 174 | 3517 | 3132.59718815175 | 384.40281184825 |
| 175 | 3905 | 4014.20649785714 | -109.206497857137 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 176 | 4150.79235735269 | 3825.37189971189 | 4476.21281499348 |
| 177 | 3596.6904443016 | 3262.27826021848 | 3931.10262838472 |
| 178 | 3984.29295923712 | 3633.16360364715 | 4335.4223148271 |
| 179 | 4767.63269205472 | 4388.79309947495 | 5146.47228463448 |
| 180 | 5740.43268725371 | 5322.21488395201 | 6158.65049055542 |
| 181 | 2512.61125442570 | 2164.26115469042 | 2860.96135416099 |
| 182 | 3684.40927969676 | 3287.08795951662 | 4081.73059987691 |
| 183 | 3852.98020094208 | 3435.38101169249 | 4270.57939019167 |
| 184 | 3697.09423311585 | 3273.3896330304 | 4120.79883320131 |
| 185 | 3419.1203184623 | 2996.20803643922 | 3842.03260048538 |
| 186 | 3418.72856826715 | 2982.3654334957 | 3855.0917030386 |
| 187 | 4101.1979852377 | 3727.29819122541 | 4475.09777925 |
