Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
Parameter | Value |
alpha | 0.731166173353888 |
beta | 0 |
gamma | 1 |
Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
13 | 0.46 | 0.466830516713388 | -0.00683051671338769 |
14 | 0.46 | 0.461427505600215 | -0.00142750560021521 |
15 | 0.45 | 0.44997224146999 | 2.77585300099692e-05 |
16 | 0.45 | 0.450404624744055 | -0.000404624744055115 |
17 | 0.46 | 0.461375566736432 | -0.00137556673643241 |
18 | 0.46 | 0.461642562585364 | -0.00164256258536388 |
19 | 0.46 | 0.454146875094009 | 0.00585312490599121 |
20 | 0.46 | 0.457990824794375 | 0.00200917520562460 |
21 | 0.46 | 0.459435118913758 | 0.000564881086241864 |
22 | 0.44 | 0.460236399386104 | -0.0202363993861041 |
23 | 0.44 | 0.445377537437643 | -0.00537753743764258 |
24 | 0.43 | 0.431592291510087 | -0.00159229151008661 |
25 | 0.44 | 0.428253841794443 | 0.0117461582055569 |
26 | 0.44 | 0.437770075517025 | 0.00222992448297515 |
27 | 0.44 | 0.429774388275788 | 0.0102256117242123 |
28 | 0.44 | 0.437503772591721 | 0.00249622740827943 |
29 | 0.44 | 0.450043144789146 | -0.0100431447891458 |
30 | 0.44 | 0.443807166053091 | -0.00380716605309078 |
31 | 0.44 | 0.436854614469646 | 0.00314538553035443 |
32 | 0.44 | 0.437693489096854 | 0.00230651090314604 |
33 | 0.44 | 0.438928998479739 | 0.00107100152026091 |
34 | 0.44 | 0.434510131914643 | 0.00548986808535729 |
35 | 0.44 | 0.442425766086351 | -0.00242576608635148 |
36 | 0.43 | 0.431803936589844 | -0.00180393658984418 |
37 | 0.43 | 0.431837409477797 | -0.00183740947779731 |
38 | 0.42 | 0.428869689010611 | -0.00886968901061114 |
39 | 0.42 | 0.41511297228229 | 0.00488702771771032 |
40 | 0.42 | 0.416887495830328 | 0.00311250416967246 |
41 | 0.42 | 0.426056944620637 | -0.00605694462063683 |
42 | 0.42 | 0.424236971520616 | -0.00423697152061631 |
43 | 0.42 | 0.418879722317182 | 0.00112027768281830 |
44 | 0.42 | 0.418030009671073 | 0.00196999032892742 |
45 | 0.42 | 0.418664733742606 | 0.00133526625739361 |
46 | 0.42 | 0.415742095006135 | 0.00425790499386514 |
47 | 0.42 | 0.420480813730523 | -0.000480813730522611 |
48 | 0.42 | 0.411783037948139 | 0.00821696205186068 |
49 | 0.42 | 0.419059505460376 | 0.000940494539623749 |
50 | 0.42 | 0.416250957851564 | 0.0037490421484358 |
51 | 0.42 | 0.41541333909062 | 0.00458666090938031 |
52 | 0.41 | 0.416489742659472 | -0.00648974265947211 |
53 | 0.41 | 0.416045043366751 | -0.00604504336675132 |
54 | 0.41 | 0.414628009118193 | -0.00462800911819339 |
55 | 0.41 | 0.410415342127111 | -0.000415342127110863 |
56 | 0.41 | 0.408673811663632 | 0.00132618833636827 |
57 | 0.41 | 0.408659419465873 | 0.00134058053412711 |
58 | 0.41 | 0.406563980753393 | 0.00343601924660725 |
59 | 0.41 | 0.409385895791372 | 0.000614104208627952 |
60 | 0.41 | 0.403911280413689 | 0.00608871958631058 |
61 | 0.41 | 0.407659664572826 | 0.00234033542717355 |
62 | 0.41 | 0.406661235682144 | 0.00333876431785562 |
63 | 0.41 | 0.405794207555857 | 0.00420579244414276 |
64 | 0.41 | 0.403701737623476 | 0.00629826237652359 |
65 | 0.41 | 0.412685999968824 | -0.00268599996882368 |
66 | 0.41 | 0.414103841193898 | -0.00410384119389845 |
67 | 0.41 | 0.411411052462003 | -0.00141105246200296 |
68 | 0.41 | 0.409409096656436 | 0.000590903343563487 |
69 | 0.41 | 0.408859988064725 | 0.00114001193527502 |
70 | 0.41 | 0.407176496343624 | 0.00282350365637624 |
71 | 0.41 | 0.40879025722972 | 0.00120974277028024 |
72 | 0.41 | 0.405207625737702 | 0.00479237426229845 |
Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
73 | 0.406999313201695 | 0.396988126170802 | 0.417010500232588 |
74 | 0.404561577859124 | 0.392172481627639 | 0.416950674090608 |
75 | 0.401502436918196 | 0.387145925173321 | 0.415858948663071 |
76 | 0.396948680299299 | 0.380915664839511 | 0.412981695759087 |
77 | 0.398807381922821 | 0.381089268520666 | 0.416525495324976 |
78 | 0.401684129296761 | 0.382369095723446 | 0.420999162870076 |
79 | 0.402668508684583 | 0.381924787600868 | 0.423412229768297 |
80 | 0.402221517396403 | 0.38018904167957 | 0.424253993113235 |
81 | 0.401379280469937 | 0.378143067624379 | 0.424615493315496 |
82 | 0.399328052534751 | 0.375006206072174 | 0.423649898997329 |
83 | 0.398433112494345 | 0.373014126988399 | 0.42385209800029 |
84 | 0.394981904427651 | -7.6611802057714 | 8.4511440146267 |