Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
Parameter | Value |
alpha | 1 |
beta | 0.217390091297997 |
gamma | FALSE |
Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
3 | 2.18 | 2.19 | -0.0100000000000002 |
4 | 2.18 | 2.18782609908702 | -0.00782609908702003 |
5 | 2.17 | 2.18612478269199 | -0.0161247826919859 |
6 | 2.17 | 2.17261941471041 | -0.0026194147104146 |
7 | 2.18 | 2.17204997990737 | 0.0079500200926299 |
8 | 2.17 | 2.18377823550113 | -0.0137782355011282 |
9 | 2.18 | 2.17078298362761 | 0.00921701637238792 |
10 | 2.17 | 2.1827866716583 | -0.0127866716583012 |
11 | 2.17 | 2.17000697593911 | -6.97593910548022e-06 |
12 | 2.17 | 2.17000545943907 | -5.45943906615776e-06 |
13 | 2.17 | 2.17000427261111 | -4.27261110935717e-06 |
14 | 2.17 | 2.17000334378779 | -3.34378779021094e-06 |
15 | 2.17 | 2.17000261688146 | -2.61688145730687e-06 |
16 | 2.17 | 2.17000204799736 | -2.04799735836758e-06 |
17 | 2.17 | 2.17000160278303 | -1.60278302541172e-06 |
18 | 2.17 | 2.17000125435388 | -1.2543538772114e-06 |
19 | 2.18 | 2.17000098166977 | 0.00999901833022676 |
20 | 2.18 | 2.18217466917747 | -0.00217466917747178 |
21 | 2.18 | 2.18170191764644 | -0.00170191764643812 |
22 | 2.18 | 2.1813319376139 | -0.00133193761389716 |
23 | 2.18 | 2.18104238757441 | -0.001042387574409 |
24 | 2.18 | 2.18081578284444 | -0.000815782844440172 |
25 | 2.18 | 2.18063843973741 | -0.00063843973740818 |
26 | 2.18 | 2.1804996492646 | -0.000499649264604773 |
27 | 2.18 | 2.18039103046536 | -0.000391030465355158 |
28 | 2.18 | 2.18030602431679 | -0.000306024316791387 |
29 | 2.18 | 2.18023949766262 | -0.000239497662624544 |
30 | 2.18 | 2.18018743324388 | -0.000187433243881152 |
31 | 2.18 | 2.18014668711388 | -0.000146687113881327 |
32 | 2.19 | 2.1801147987888 | 0.00988520121119718 |
33 | 2.19 | 2.1922637435826 | -0.00226374358260362 |
34 | 2.19 | 2.19177162815851 | -0.00177162815850629 |
35 | 2.2 | 2.19138649375138 | 0.00861350624861767 |
36 | 2.2 | 2.20325898466117 | -0.00325898466116525 |
37 | 2.21 | 2.20255051368814 | 0.00744948631186393 |
38 | 2.21 | 2.2141699581976 | -0.00416995819759514 |
39 | 2.21 | 2.21326345060431 | -0.00326345060431121 |
40 | 2.2 | 2.21255400877949 | -0.0125540087794933 |
41 | 2.21 | 2.19982489166476 | 0.0101751083352362 |
42 | 2.2 | 2.21203685939473 | -0.0120368593947275 |
43 | 2.21 | 2.19942016543197 | 0.0105798345680332 |
44 | 2.21 | 2.21172011663463 | -0.00172011663462923 |
45 | 2.22 | 2.21134618032238 | 0.00865381967761625 |
46 | 2.22 | 2.22322743497218 | -0.00322743497217726 |
47 | 2.23 | 2.22252582258892 | 0.00747417741108247 |
48 | 2.24 | 2.23415063469869 | 0.00584936530131008 |
49 | 2.24 | 2.24542222875558 | -0.00542222875557696 |
50 | 2.25 | 2.24424348995136 | 0.00575651004863609 |
51 | 2.25 | 2.25549489819639 | -0.00549489819639426 |
52 | 2.32 | 2.25430036177581 | 0.0656996382241926 |
53 | 2.36 | 2.33858281212761 | 0.0214171878723906 |
54 | 2.37 | 2.38323869655453 | -0.0132386965545348 |
55 | 2.37 | 2.39036073510188 | -0.0203607351018782 |
56 | 2.37 | 2.38593451303919 | -0.0159345130391864 |
57 | 2.38 | 2.38247050779481 | -0.00247050779480906 |
58 | 2.38 | 2.39193344387974 | -0.0119334438797427 |
59 | 2.41 | 2.38933923142523 | 0.0206607685747744 |
60 | 2.42 | 2.42383067779198 | -0.00383067779198321 |
61 | 2.43 | 2.43299792639705 | -0.00299792639705032 |
62 | 2.44 | 2.44234620690389 | -0.00234620690389109 |
63 | 2.44 | 2.45183616477085 | -0.01183616477085 |
64 | 2.44 | 2.4492630998307 | -0.00926309983069684 |
65 | 2.43 | 2.4472493937128 | -0.0172493937127989 |
66 | 2.43 | 2.43349954643874 | -0.00349954643873884 |
67 | 2.43 | 2.43273877971892 | -0.00273877971891956 |
68 | 2.42 | 2.43214339614578 | -0.0121433961457789 |
69 | 2.42 | 2.41950354214898 | 0.000496457851019816 |
70 | 2.42 | 2.41961146716654 | 0.000388532833460964 |
71 | 2.42 | 2.41969593035468 | 0.000304069645322702 |
72 | 2.42 | 2.41976203208263 | 0.000237967917365189 |
Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
73 | 2.41981376394992 | 2.39744387098496 | 2.44218365691487 |
74 | 2.41962752789983 | 2.38438490890985 | 2.45487014688982 |
75 | 2.41944129184975 | 2.37177382234167 | 2.46710876135784 |
76 | 2.41925505579967 | 2.35893801108898 | 2.47957210051036 |
77 | 2.41906881974958 | 2.34567117471563 | 2.49246646478354 |
78 | 2.4188825836995 | 2.33189585888315 | 2.50586930851585 |
79 | 2.41869634764942 | 2.31758318688811 | 2.51980950841073 |
80 | 2.41851011159934 | 2.30272559340107 | 2.53429462979761 |
81 | 2.41832387554925 | 2.28732563959418 | 2.54932211150433 |
82 | 2.41813763949917 | 2.27139085694765 | 2.56488442205069 |
83 | 2.41795140344909 | 2.25493118030076 | 2.58097162659741 |
84 | 2.417765167399 | 2.23795760325074 | 2.59757273154726 |