| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 0.128930926063059 |
| beta | 0 |
| gamma | 0.318961787795789 |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 13 | 530 | 488.836959000463 | 41.163040999537 |
| 14 | 883 | 814.755238932399 | 68.2447610676013 |
| 15 | 894 | 834.618524038149 | 59.3814759618515 |
| 16 | 1045 | 999.136032009435 | 45.8639679905651 |
| 17 | 1199 | 1167.51744281064 | 31.4825571893605 |
| 18 | 1287 | 1265.76789251402 | 21.2321074859849 |
| 19 | 1565 | 1471.54411690622 | 93.455883093782 |
| 20 | 1577 | 1416.67395034438 | 160.326049655620 |
| 21 | 1076 | 1269.32628721628 | -193.326287216280 |
| 22 | 918 | 1065.59758763115 | -147.597587631153 |
| 23 | 1008 | 1084.10736657534 | -76.1073665753388 |
| 24 | 1063 | 1034.95187934666 | 28.0481206533357 |
| 25 | 544 | 581.982552876668 | -37.9825528766681 |
| 26 | 635 | 950.01704297118 | -315.01704297118 |
| 27 | 804 | 917.750504008918 | -113.750504008918 |
| 28 | 980 | 1063.42543153307 | -83.425431533069 |
| 29 | 1018 | 1216.09603740948 | -198.096037409481 |
| 30 | 1064 | 1282.55780968998 | -218.557809689982 |
| 31 | 1404 | 1474.02347356884 | -70.0234735688375 |
| 32 | 1286 | 1417.91458147561 | -131.914581475614 |
| 33 | 1104 | 1148.84690724577 | -44.8469072457747 |
| 34 | 999 | 983.319274434603 | 15.6807255653965 |
| 35 | 996 | 1041.62335100716 | -45.6233510071575 |
| 36 | 1015 | 1025.6617778338 | -10.6617778338000 |
| 37 | 615 | 559.411247840276 | 55.5887521597242 |
| 38 | 722 | 858.653333515306 | -136.653333515306 |
| 39 | 832 | 906.056318391442 | -74.0563183914425 |
| 40 | 977 | 1069.55862086221 | -92.55862086221 |
| 41 | 1270 | 1191.23602602605 | 78.763973973949 |
| 42 | 1437 | 1290.50915889255 | 146.490841107447 |
| 43 | 1520 | 1593.93855847723 | -73.9385584772338 |
| 44 | 1708 | 1512.02680738275 | 195.973192617247 |
| 45 | 1151 | 1278.88506606664 | -127.885066066642 |
| 46 | 934 | 1101.55325635512 | -167.553256355115 |
| 47 | 1159 | 1121.70002051595 | 37.2999794840518 |
| 48 | 1209 | 1125.00450634841 | 83.9954936515919 |
| 49 | 699 | 638.412885070315 | 60.5871149296852 |
| 50 | 830 | 909.400985151356 | -79.4009851513558 |
| 51 | 996 | 990.093850771444 | 5.90614922855627 |
| 52 | 1124 | 1179.04487730169 | -55.0448773016915 |
| 53 | 1458 | 1375.82991843031 | 82.1700815696906 |
| 54 | 1270 | 1506.27911116513 | -236.279111165128 |
| 55 | 1753 | 1718.3139041886 | 34.6860958114012 |
| 56 | 2258 | 1723.10131469524 | 534.898685304756 |
| 57 | 1208 | 1397.79915781362 | -189.79915781362 |
| 58 | 1241 | 1178.68476644003 | 62.315233559967 |
| 59 | 1265 | 1298.32903611964 | -33.3290361196437 |
| 60 | 1828 | 1305.30176605923 | 522.698233940772 |
| 61 | 809 | 774.561182046733 | 34.4388179532666 |
| 62 | 997 | 1040.77010167051 | -43.7701016705096 |
| 63 | 1164 | 1168.75073612202 | -4.75073612201572 |
| 64 | 1205 | 1367.6983549032 | -162.698354903199 |
| 65 | 1538 | 1626.18580375515 | -88.1858037551515 |
| 66 | 1513 | 1647.32610180479 | -134.326101804787 |
| 67 | 1378 | 1994.8473981759 | -616.847398175902 |
| 68 | 2083 | 2061.21782094053 | 21.7821790594703 |
| 69 | 1357 | 1428.82192211012 | -71.8219221101172 |
| 70 | 1536 | 1284.72546884146 | 251.274531158535 |
| 71 | 1526 | 1409.0793621541 | 116.920637845899 |
| 72 | 1376 | 1598.65940088826 | -222.659400888261 |
| 73 | 779 | 810.73714273177 | -31.7371427317696 |
| 74 | 1005 | 1051.93266238057 | -46.9326623805705 |
| 75 | 1193 | 1193.37607240147 | -0.376072401467354 |
| 76 | 1522 | 1351.58581532867 | 170.414184671327 |
| 77 | 1539 | 1689.45800268104 | -150.458002681038 |
| 78 | 1546 | 1689.68549575826 | -143.685495758261 |
| 79 | 2116 | 1905.13461397824 | 210.865386021764 |
| 80 | 2326 | 2288.75654810251 | 37.2434518974892 |
| 81 | 1596 | 1559.59203705080 | 36.4079629492023 |
| 82 | 1356 | 1510.71249582125 | -154.712495821247 |
| 83 | 1553 | 1548.27143626205 | 4.72856373794889 |
| 84 | 1613 | 1632.16622149008 | -19.1662214900787 |
| 85 | 814 | 866.034135880236 | -52.0341358802364 |
| 86 | 1150 | 1118.27300435748 | 31.7269956425243 |
| 87 | 1225 | 1295.90142116044 | -70.9014211604406 |
| 88 | 1691 | 1506.94089288937 | 184.059107110634 |
| 89 | 1759 | 1773.46513372946 | -14.4651337294576 |
| 90 | 1754 | 1793.43097722004 | -39.4309772200411 |
| 91 | 2100 | 2150.52505344624 | -50.5250534462384 |
| 92 | 2062 | 2474.58202317727 | -412.58202317727 |
| 93 | 2012 | 1649.13461538531 | 362.865384614687 |
| 94 | 1897 | 1579.57425173296 | 317.42574826704 |
| 95 | 1964 | 1733.10680944281 | 230.893190557190 |
| 96 | 2186 | 1848.41951486649 | 337.580485133513 |
| 97 | 966 | 990.716000674308 | -24.7160006743081 |
| 98 | 1549 | 1316.00081055352 | 232.999189446478 |
| 99 | 1538 | 1516.72552640784 | 21.2744735921622 |
| 100 | 1612 | 1865.30779150913 | -253.307791509130 |
| 101 | 2078 | 2048.08749988090 | 29.9125001190969 |
| 102 | 2137 | 2067.22079795441 | 69.7792020455922 |
| 103 | 2907 | 2493.16925096456 | 413.830749035440 |
| 104 | 2249 | 2815.31344148217 | -566.313441482172 |
| 105 | 1883 | 2074.7657014799 | -191.765701479898 |
| 106 | 1739 | 1898.77284610264 | -159.772846102645 |
| 107 | 1828 | 1973.17415285422 | -145.174152854216 |
| 108 | 1868 | 2074.50887478492 | -206.508874784916 |
| 109 | 1138 | 1014.42752648855 | 123.572473511449 |
| 110 | 1430 | 1448.76169452102 | -18.7616945210216 |
| 111 | 1809 | 1560.78133262785 | 248.218667372145 |
| 112 | 1763 | 1872.46637985906 | -109.466379859062 |
| 113 | 2200 | 2167.82898868277 | 32.1710113172339 |
| 114 | 2067 | 2198.99757413641 | -131.997574136406 |
| 115 | 2503 | 2712.50610912219 | -209.506109122188 |
| 116 | 2141 | 2677.56580949333 | -536.565809493326 |
| 117 | 2103 | 2039.05393585696 | 63.9460641430412 |
| 118 | 1972 | 1900.54022236161 | 71.4597776383923 |
| 119 | 2181 | 2012.03876025336 | 168.961239746642 |
| 120 | 2344 | 2141.73511193062 | 202.264888069379 |
| 121 | 970 | 1141.04354334107 | -171.043543341066 |
| 122 | 1199 | 1516.72816114097 | -317.728161140968 |
| 123 | 1718 | 1667.26490517319 | 50.7350948268104 |
| 124 | 1683 | 1855.10955042207 | -172.109550422071 |
| 125 | 2025 | 2182.64731643919 | -157.647316439192 |
| 126 | 2051 | 2143.70912748383 | -92.709127483828 |
| 127 | 2439 | 2637.04671442342 | -198.046714423419 |
| 128 | 2353 | 2509.46343944927 | -156.463439449273 |
| 129 | 2230 | 2081.67868386108 | 148.321316138916 |
| 130 | 1852 | 1953.33939339838 | -101.339393398375 |
| 131 | 2147 | 2069.79325703407 | 77.2067429659337 |
| 132 | 2286 | 2196.18554403938 | 89.8144559606185 |
| 133 | 1007 | 1084.64792832794 | -77.647928327937 |
| 134 | 1665 | 1430.19404726694 | 234.805952733061 |
| 135 | 1642 | 1769.23922025062 | -127.239220250619 |
| 136 | 1518 | 1875.82278453689 | -357.822784536888 |
| 137 | 1831 | 2191.54539780048 | -360.545397800477 |
| 138 | 2207 | 2144.18528899211 | 62.8147110078899 |
| 139 | 2822 | 2637.89742440655 | 184.102575593454 |
| 140 | 2393 | 2566.47025484265 | -173.470254842647 |
| 141 | 2306 | 2207.31785414757 | 98.6821458524314 |
| 142 | 1785 | 1994.72252902756 | -209.722529027564 |
| 143 | 2047 | 2151.56574794136 | -104.565747941355 |
| 144 | 2171 | 2259.77921774676 | -88.7792177467613 |
| 145 | 1212 | 1070.26508143285 | 141.734918567153 |
| 146 | 1335 | 1544.13335047298 | -209.133350472983 |
| 147 | 2011 | 1723.90986670660 | 287.090133293397 |
| 148 | 1860 | 1818.52528118570 | 41.4747188142951 |
| 149 | 1954 | 2201.59379662456 | -247.593796624557 |
| 150 | 2152 | 2292.73539533376 | -140.735395333764 |
| 151 | 2835 | 2817.79631950020 | 17.2036804998047 |
| 152 | 2224 | 2616.82823281669 | -392.828232816688 |
| 153 | 2182 | 2297.14668489135 | -115.146684891355 |
| 154 | 1992 | 1965.49774545083 | 26.5022545491663 |
| 155 | 2389 | 2188.10276913204 | 200.897230867962 |
| 156 | 2724 | 2345.61843415762 | 378.381565842381 |
| 157 | 891 | 1193.66533165030 | -302.665331650297 |
| 158 | 1247 | 1519.99089775425 | -272.990897754245 |
| 159 | 2017 | 1833.60178236905 | 183.398217630952 |
| 160 | 2257 | 1846.38991421299 | 410.610085787007 |
| 161 | 2255 | 2205.65988299313 | 49.3401170068732 |
| 162 | 2255 | 2371.89557184749 | -116.895571847493 |
| 163 | 3057 | 2974.95897107681 | 82.041028923195 |
| 164 | 3330 | 2647.35367654457 | 682.646323455434 |
| 165 | 1896 | 2520.14220101208 | -624.142201012083 |
| 166 | 2096 | 2137.97226036438 | -41.9722603643763 |
| 167 | 2374 | 2419.71801410648 | -45.7180141064846 |
| 168 | 2535 | 2603.13644850766 | -68.1364485076638 |
| 169 | 1041 | 1148.50094503263 | -107.50094503263 |
| 170 | 1728 | 1528.24102368985 | 199.758976310149 |
| 171 | 2201 | 2076.81793642787 | 124.182063572127 |
| 172 | 2455 | 2145.67557931209 | 309.324420687911 |
| 173 | 2204 | 2408.11543436073 | -204.115434360731 |
| 174 | 2660 | 2502.41008370423 | 157.589916295772 |
| 175 | 3670 | 3252.23288577992 | 417.767114220076 |
| 176 | 2665 | 3109.720088842 | -444.720088841997 |
| 177 | 2639 | 2442.44363393001 | 196.556366069986 |
| 178 | 2226 | 2314.42316529856 | -88.423165298559 |
| 179 | 2586 | 2612.65435638816 | -26.6543563881555 |
| 180 | 2684 | 2806.99681258423 | -122.996812584234 |
| 181 | 1185 | 1211.47427616192 | -26.4742761619227 |
| 182 | 1749 | 1730.07097698978 | 18.9290230102185 |
| 183 | 2459 | 2271.6238317361 | 187.376168263900 |
| 184 | 2618 | 2405.78894534087 | 212.211054659133 |
| 185 | 2585 | 2517.28777215465 | 67.7122278453548 |
| 186 | 3310 | 2764.81400431412 | 545.185995685879 |
| 187 | 3923 | 3717.08072903676 | 205.919270963237 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 188 | 3262.85177136476 | 3097.72152904186 | 3427.98201368767 |
| 189 | 2779.90302837335 | 2608.90564984184 | 2950.90040690486 |
| 190 | 2522.42600214271 | 2346.03073013678 | 2698.82127414865 |
| 191 | 2882.93206219248 | 2693.71910196576 | 3072.14502241921 |
| 192 | 3070.84778100358 | 2870.96264867985 | 3270.73291332731 |
| 193 | 1340.56310847030 | 1166.82838026070 | 1514.29783667991 |
| 194 | 1936.53683464634 | 1739.11931027989 | 2133.95435901279 |
| 195 | 2587.65967758135 | 2357.76423752611 | 2817.55511763658 |
| 196 | 2714.66020854532 | 2473.43565412471 | 2955.88476296592 |
| 197 | 2761.51980800167 | 2512.87939827370 | 3010.16021772965 |
| 198 | 3159.45509988435 | 2884.32834292068 | 3434.58185684802 |
| 199 | 3991.41730230635 | 3706.1359745955 | 4276.69863001720 |
