| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 0.653714754766023 |
| beta | 0.0529159338485531 |
| gamma | 1 |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 13 | 44 | 53.1428952991453 | -9.14289529914532 |
| 14 | 38 | 41.0687479080939 | -3.06874790809392 |
| 15 | 33 | 33.8175397197737 | -0.817539719773748 |
| 16 | 33 | 32.6763659327989 | 0.323634067201063 |
| 17 | 52 | 51.0423894140582 | 0.95761058594183 |
| 18 | 54 | 52.5226449616744 | 1.47735503832563 |
| 19 | 39 | 38.0604363504120 | 0.93956364958796 |
| 20 | 22 | 28.0708335569269 | -6.07083355692687 |
| 21 | 31 | 24.6634288432478 | 6.33657115675216 |
| 22 | 31 | 28.6694551976919 | 2.33054480230812 |
| 23 | 38 | 31.0956343846045 | 6.90436561539552 |
| 24 | 42 | 37.667289698764 | 4.332710301236 |
| 25 | 41 | 31.416643046307 | 9.5833569536930 |
| 26 | 31 | 34.4910323904657 | -3.49103239046567 |
| 27 | 36 | 28.5322448681684 | 7.46775513183162 |
| 28 | 34 | 34.2779806135972 | -0.277980613597194 |
| 29 | 51 | 53.5249638002933 | -2.52496380029329 |
| 30 | 47 | 53.8428273489417 | -6.84282734894171 |
| 31 | 31 | 34.4017908131469 | -3.40179081314695 |
| 32 | 19 | 19.6428349077232 | -0.642834907723216 |
| 33 | 30 | 24.7643105872425 | 5.23568941275745 |
| 34 | 33 | 27.3093812665780 | 5.69061873342196 |
| 35 | 36 | 34.278103235232 | 1.72189676476797 |
| 36 | 40 | 37.1542705357469 | 2.84572946425313 |
| 37 | 32 | 32.2812411328842 | -0.281241132884190 |
| 38 | 25 | 24.5697506826620 | 0.430249317337953 |
| 39 | 28 | 25.2950956294347 | 2.70490437056531 |
| 40 | 29 | 25.4061617053032 | 3.59383829469679 |
| 41 | 55 | 46.701156742188 | 8.29884325781202 |
| 42 | 55 | 53.2689503961012 | 1.73104960389878 |
| 43 | 40 | 41.5904110003053 | -1.59041100030529 |
| 44 | 38 | 29.9996727347889 | 8.00032726521112 |
| 45 | 44 | 44.1346471304973 | -0.134647130497271 |
| 46 | 41 | 44.4685044366325 | -3.46850443663246 |
| 47 | 49 | 44.9005504224267 | 4.09944957757329 |
| 48 | 59 | 50.6274577258272 | 8.3725422741728 |
| 49 | 61 | 49.3830786942564 | 11.6169213057436 |
| 50 | 47 | 51.2060666636596 | -4.20606666365965 |
| 51 | 43 | 51.03797926002 | -8.03797926002 |
| 52 | 39 | 45.4121877876488 | -6.41218778764881 |
| 53 | 66 | 62.4273413023145 | 3.57265869768548 |
| 54 | 68 | 64.0997120763742 | 3.90028792362581 |
| 55 | 63 | 53.232584846858 | 9.767415153142 |
| 56 | 68 | 53.3241672320863 | 14.6758327679137 |
| 57 | 67 | 70.1733260239246 | -3.17332602392462 |
| 58 | 59 | 68.4285043070775 | -9.42850430707755 |
| 59 | 68 | 68.4411291716005 | -0.441129171600537 |
| 60 | 78 | 73.3784826571987 | 4.62151734280127 |
| 61 | 82 | 71.3747092448876 | 10.6252907551124 |
| 62 | 70 | 67.6051093852206 | 2.39489061477937 |
| 63 | 62 | 71.1884931498553 | -9.1884931498553 |
| 64 | 68 | 66.0970456716028 | 1.90295432839717 |
| 65 | 94 | 93.0166363767962 | 0.983363623203758 |
| 66 | 102 | 94.0313323050989 | 7.96866769490114 |
| 67 | 100 | 88.9177300284861 | 11.0822699715139 |
| 68 | 104 | 92.6763138447618 | 11.3236861552382 |
| 69 | 103 | 102.145016234787 | 0.854983765213376 |
| 70 | 93 | 101.998622743614 | -8.99862274361436 |
| 71 | 110 | 106.550471988825 | 3.44952801117455 |
| 72 | 114 | 117.06491965552 | -3.06491965552 |
| 73 | 120 | 113.130132834069 | 6.8698671659308 |
| 74 | 102 | 104.940289415024 | -2.94028941502401 |
| 75 | 95 | 101.725076612879 | -6.72507661287882 |
| 76 | 103 | 102.870264031926 | 0.129735968074158 |
| 77 | 122 | 129.036354549051 | -7.03635454905111 |
| 78 | 139 | 127.674052119625 | 11.3259478803749 |
| 79 | 135 | 126.396184761247 | 8.60381523875284 |
| 80 | 135 | 129.095267284779 | 5.90473271522131 |
| 81 | 137 | 131.686012913669 | 5.31398708633077 |
| 82 | 130 | 131.486272887244 | -1.48627288724373 |
| 83 | 148 | 145.963429417610 | 2.03657058239031 |
| 84 | 148 | 153.953234341842 | -5.95323434184226 |
| 85 | 145 | 152.125556798794 | -7.12555679879358 |
| 86 | 128 | 131.460430191638 | -3.46043019163804 |
| 87 | 131 | 126.647429488925 | 4.35257051107536 |
| 88 | 133 | 137.844007656779 | -4.84400765677859 |
| 89 | 146 | 158.541174712991 | -12.5411747129909 |
| 90 | 163 | 160.012459729354 | 2.98754027064592 |
| 91 | 151 | 152.126151540346 | -1.12615154034631 |
| 92 | 157 | 146.978514090095 | 10.0214859099047 |
| 93 | 152 | 151.646837280606 | 0.35316271939422 |
| 94 | 149 | 145.268660755636 | 3.73133924436351 |
| 95 | 172 | 163.976400570918 | 8.02359942908225 |
| 96 | 167 | 172.920210430047 | -5.92021043004689 |
| 97 | 160 | 170.516252894801 | -10.5162528948008 |
| 98 | 150 | 148.594556534751 | 1.40544346524877 |
| 99 | 160 | 149.527095093708 | 10.4729049062915 |
| 100 | 165 | 161.610819985528 | 3.38918001447223 |
| 101 | 171 | 185.380362895994 | -14.3803628959942 |
| 102 | 179 | 191.318722250232 | -12.3187222502323 |
| 103 | 171 | 171.764514435572 | -0.764514435571698 |
| 104 | 176 | 170.488597391204 | 5.51140260879649 |
| 105 | 170 | 168.479652970861 | 1.52034702913903 |
| 106 | 169 | 163.693707946539 | 5.30629205346131 |
| 107 | 194 | 184.631257883462 | 9.36874211653821 |
| 108 | 196 | 189.386296686954 | 6.61370331304585 |
| 109 | 188 | 193.778398973095 | -5.77839897309511 |
| 110 | 174 | 179.440103835476 | -5.44010383547618 |
| 111 | 186 | 179.158623217924 | 6.84137678207557 |
| 112 | 191 | 186.410841616174 | 4.58915838382612 |
| 113 | 197 | 204.848473566369 | -7.8484735663692 |
| 114 | 206 | 216.033667724240 | -10.0336677242397 |
| 115 | 197 | 202.316256529717 | -5.31625652971738 |
| 116 | 204 | 200.422573536797 | 3.57742646320298 |
| 117 | 201 | 195.884934298969 | 5.11506570103097 |
| 118 | 190 | 195.001892640157 | -5.00189264015745 |
| 119 | 213 | 210.492982524096 | 2.50701747590352 |
| 120 | 213 | 209.456406982977 | 3.54359301702263 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 121 | 207.092155244158 | 194.83616965225 | 219.348140836066 |
| 122 | 196.390141896129 | 181.511526378341 | 211.268757413917 |
| 123 | 203.847727131254 | 186.530975858222 | 221.164478404285 |
| 124 | 205.540964359967 | 185.892588125736 | 225.189340594198 |
| 125 | 216.206117278357 | 194.290389530211 | 238.121845026503 |
| 126 | 231.571257682240 | 207.426886537931 | 255.715628826548 |
| 127 | 226.199640682604 | 199.848686708472 | 252.550594656737 |
| 128 | 231.197991442581 | 202.651100964909 | 259.744881920253 |
| 129 | 225.067414671224 | 194.327104315254 | 255.807725027195 |
| 130 | 217.373502862963 | 184.436328866192 | 250.310676859733 |
| 131 | 238.943930823285 | 203.801980289545 | 274.085881357025 |
| 132 | 236.750011493138 | 199.391961074474 | 274.108061911802 |
