| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 0.703339343785154 |
| beta | 0.111780621846133 |
| gamma | 1 |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 13 | 267 | 266.698985042735 | 0.30101495726484 |
| 14 | 263 | 263.06737923417 | -0.0673792341703461 |
| 15 | 266 | 266.254703294283 | -0.25470329428282 |
| 16 | 257 | 257.331916940614 | -0.331916940614121 |
| 17 | 249 | 249.203727978248 | -0.203727978248168 |
| 18 | 249 | 249.066348988811 | -0.0663489888105175 |
| 19 | 251 | 252.72871104278 | -1.72871104277996 |
| 20 | 252 | 252.710957701073 | -0.710957701073482 |
| 21 | 252 | 252.311468372467 | -0.311468372467147 |
| 22 | 252 | 251.293468053218 | 0.706531946781695 |
| 23 | 256 | 252.588681413358 | 3.41131858664176 |
| 24 | 257 | 257.262807842518 | -0.262807842518498 |
| 25 | 259 | 265.33808068527 | -6.33808068526997 |
| 26 | 260 | 256.443489695685 | 3.55651030431545 |
| 27 | 261 | 261.924815363002 | -0.924815363002153 |
| 28 | 253 | 252.255871755537 | 0.744128244462729 |
| 29 | 243 | 244.755199868646 | -1.75519986864552 |
| 30 | 233 | 243.278051869614 | -10.2780518696139 |
| 31 | 241 | 238.172810262115 | 2.82718973788542 |
| 32 | 239 | 240.927358314087 | -1.92735831408686 |
| 33 | 233 | 238.961236034472 | -5.96123603447214 |
| 34 | 228 | 232.997746078847 | -4.99774607884723 |
| 35 | 228 | 229.361064976328 | -1.36106497632835 |
| 36 | 227 | 227.491159037687 | -0.491159037686742 |
| 37 | 225 | 231.488117681057 | -6.48811768105722 |
| 38 | 230 | 223.296128368875 | 6.70387163112531 |
| 39 | 222 | 227.781921449197 | -5.78192144919723 |
| 40 | 207 | 212.930267047946 | -5.93026704794619 |
| 41 | 190 | 197.207412128505 | -7.20741212850544 |
| 42 | 184 | 186.152096617264 | -2.15209661726439 |
| 43 | 192 | 188.073811607013 | 3.92618839298657 |
| 44 | 187 | 187.701087248775 | -0.70108724877477 |
| 45 | 173 | 183.007411860488 | -10.0074118604882 |
| 46 | 167 | 171.772462666732 | -4.77246266673185 |
| 47 | 163 | 166.679350019811 | -3.67935001981115 |
| 48 | 156 | 160.560964536619 | -4.56096453661883 |
| 49 | 153 | 156.720434909742 | -3.72043490974195 |
| 50 | 157 | 151.4102321477 | 5.58976785230041 |
| 51 | 152 | 148.342420283441 | 3.65757971655884 |
| 52 | 128 | 137.762092616605 | -9.76209261660503 |
| 53 | 115 | 116.34019078805 | -1.3401907880498 |
| 54 | 114 | 108.74742080641 | 5.25257919359026 |
| 55 | 136 | 116.098661806031 | 19.9013381939695 |
| 56 | 132 | 125.263457993688 | 6.73654200631194 |
| 57 | 126 | 123.299183564407 | 2.70081643559263 |
| 58 | 124 | 123.813596043138 | 0.186403956862137 |
| 59 | 123 | 124.180558819298 | -1.18055881929804 |
| 60 | 119 | 121.402611306797 | -2.40261130679667 |
| 61 | 105 | 121.343657746784 | -16.343657746784 |
| 62 | 107 | 110.938751721999 | -3.93875172199904 |
| 63 | 108 | 100.868558657663 | 7.13144134233664 |
| 64 | 92 | 89.2961654422711 | 2.70383455772891 |
| 65 | 74 | 80.6662748405034 | -6.66627484050345 |
| 66 | 73 | 72.3903279513047 | 0.609672048695259 |
| 67 | 100 | 81.5637682203232 | 18.4362317796768 |
| 68 | 97 | 86.4194621839055 | 10.5805378160945 |
| 69 | 99 | 86.8906359175686 | 12.1093640824314 |
| 70 | 102 | 94.9452758171043 | 7.05472418289565 |
| 71 | 99 | 101.946212647575 | -2.94621264757464 |
| 72 | 103 | 99.6337995345362 | 3.36620046546376 |
| 73 | 92 | 102.019983676966 | -10.0199836769657 |
| 74 | 99 | 102.763444802236 | -3.76344480223604 |
| 75 | 97 | 99.1350561276357 | -2.13505612763575 |
| 76 | 87 | 82.03755798873 | 4.96244201127006 |
| 77 | 69 | 74.6999471899395 | -5.69994718993945 |
| 78 | 66 | 71.8215712556196 | -5.82157125561956 |
| 79 | 95 | 83.8139090291303 | 11.1860909708697 |
| 80 | 91 | 82.7236194674907 | 8.27638053250928 |
| 81 | 93 | 83.3303802369769 | 9.66961976302308 |
| 82 | 99 | 89.2803760936421 | 9.71962390635794 |
| 83 | 91 | 96.5091078205981 | -5.5091078205981 |
| 84 | 91 | 95.3856107981544 | -4.38561079815436 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 85 | 88.8578982572924 | 76.1752451530761 | 101.540551361509 |
| 86 | 99.8020565938264 | 83.7022791195334 | 115.901834068119 |
| 87 | 100.896786044547 | 81.4461449149307 | 120.347427174162 |
| 88 | 89.1674233036494 | 66.3592679771602 | 111.975578630139 |
| 89 | 76.5471926387797 | 50.3394684988334 | 102.754916778726 |
| 90 | 79.4606331550801 | 49.7922248949589 | 109.129041415201 |
| 91 | 102.869605920986 | 69.6685618949362 | 136.070649947036 |
| 92 | 94.4456452978064 | 57.633719587132 | 131.257571008481 |
| 93 | 90.3910780776652 | 49.886404992253 | 130.895751163077 |
| 94 | 89.541118282155 | 45.2598607475646 | 133.822375816745 |
| 95 | 84.6379706609443 | 36.4953699985855 | 132.780571323303 |
| 96 | 87.3777478361247 | 35.2888078049693 | 139.46668786728 |
