| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 0.17405321302253 |
| beta | 0.155374088159449 |
| gamma | 1 |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 13 | 371 | 374.488782051282 | -3.48878205128227 |
| 14 | 374 | 376.675603202716 | -2.67560320271582 |
| 15 | 369 | 371.098270113510 | -2.09827011351041 |
| 16 | 363 | 364.773012764285 | -1.77301276428483 |
| 17 | 357 | 358.623085947253 | -1.62308594725272 |
| 18 | 366 | 367.538694011388 | -1.53869401138763 |
| 19 | 362 | 362.469045974832 | -0.469045974831545 |
| 20 | 366 | 363.572889037032 | 2.42711096296767 |
| 21 | 361 | 364.246454753421 | -3.24645475342118 |
| 22 | 362 | 363.178056418678 | -1.17805641867830 |
| 23 | 358 | 363.771144190277 | -5.77114419027686 |
| 24 | 363 | 364.158719151829 | -1.15871915182885 |
| 25 | 360 | 355.227884193784 | 4.77211580621605 |
| 26 | 360 | 359.136574941226 | 0.86342505877434 |
| 27 | 348 | 354.360166038926 | -6.36016603892637 |
| 28 | 345 | 347.15459982716 | -2.15459982716004 |
| 29 | 332 | 340.644611286876 | -8.64461128687589 |
| 30 | 333 | 347.80044107954 | -14.8004410795398 |
| 31 | 323 | 340.340011049965 | -17.3400110499645 |
| 32 | 327 | 339.477227717233 | -12.4772277172326 |
| 33 | 332 | 331.045266404497 | 0.954733595502944 |
| 34 | 337 | 330.704783985323 | 6.29521601467667 |
| 35 | 336 | 327.295373765936 | 8.70462623406428 |
| 36 | 337 | 332.893995199172 | 4.10600480082832 |
| 37 | 343 | 328.802306737405 | 14.1976932625948 |
| 38 | 337 | 330.402328537964 | 6.59767146203558 |
| 39 | 326 | 320.091904650806 | 5.90809534919407 |
| 40 | 321 | 318.261240514118 | 2.73875948588221 |
| 41 | 309 | 307.140883508303 | 1.85911649169736 |
| 42 | 302 | 311.222919851203 | -9.22291985120336 |
| 43 | 293 | 302.968947385222 | -9.96894738522155 |
| 44 | 287 | 307.938081689494 | -20.9380816894941 |
| 45 | 292 | 309.431316986699 | -17.4313169866991 |
| 46 | 292 | 310.108167252241 | -18.1081672522406 |
| 47 | 289 | 303.587894503197 | -14.5878945031967 |
| 48 | 302 | 299.850833366293 | 2.14916663370724 |
| 49 | 310 | 302.217501217653 | 7.78249878234749 |
| 50 | 295 | 294.713988433853 | 0.28601156614684 |
| 51 | 276 | 280.855022415635 | -4.85502241563495 |
| 52 | 264 | 272.361805144265 | -8.36180514426519 |
| 53 | 257 | 256.111129203723 | 0.88887079627699 |
| 54 | 243 | 248.373188462661 | -5.37318846266055 |
| 55 | 227 | 237.779274345754 | -10.7792743457542 |
| 56 | 226 | 231.131712717639 | -5.13171271763855 |
| 57 | 226 | 236.284220987578 | -10.2842209875784 |
| 58 | 229 | 235.851008086266 | -6.85100808626552 |
| 59 | 224 | 232.707073538354 | -8.70707353835397 |
| 60 | 240 | 242.485982721617 | -2.48598272161672 |
| 61 | 244 | 247.241843180283 | -3.2418431802825 |
| 62 | 226 | 229.872796143532 | -3.8727961435317 |
| 63 | 208 | 209.176275068043 | -1.17627506804314 |
| 64 | 199 | 196.658944637181 | 2.34105536281902 |
| 65 | 193 | 188.433148300843 | 4.56685169915735 |
| 66 | 180 | 174.784155461458 | 5.21584453854172 |
| 67 | 167 | 160.475431552542 | 6.5245684474582 |
| 68 | 164 | 160.879473035130 | 3.1205269648697 |
| 69 | 166 | 162.811009062392 | 3.18899093760788 |
| 70 | 173 | 167.521260638162 | 5.47873936183774 |
| 71 | 169 | 165.28654222958 | 3.71345777042015 |
| 72 | 191 | 182.997662933404 | 8.00233706659606 |
| 73 | 193 | 189.870476200535 | 3.12952379946466 |
| 74 | 166 | 174.177283218823 | -8.17728321882322 |
| 75 | 143 | 155.930358198954 | -12.9303581989537 |
| 76 | 147 | 144.926072651367 | 2.07392734863311 |
| 77 | 139 | 139.138700169714 | -0.138700169714326 |
| 78 | 129 | 125.725999540620 | 3.27400045938026 |
| 79 | 115 | 112.626988832728 | 2.37301116727181 |
| 80 | 108 | 109.851370345917 | -1.85137034591713 |
| 81 | 106 | 111.194111504069 | -5.1941115040689 |
| 82 | 116 | 116.329792502009 | -0.329792502009028 |
| 83 | 108 | 111.462294570306 | -3.46229457030607 |
| 84 | 135 | 131.109024918507 | 3.89097508149294 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 85 | 132.772559242198 | 118.798813406849 | 146.746305077547 |
| 86 | 106.642210105287 | 92.3887165158134 | 120.895703694760 |
| 87 | 85.5602901482995 | 70.9546327335236 | 100.165947563075 |
| 88 | 89.2165064048414 | 74.1818586857312 | 104.251154123951 |
| 89 | 81.201751627796 | 65.658460393508 | 96.745042862084 |
| 90 | 70.5967562596923 | 54.4638503864421 | 86.7296621329425 |
| 91 | 56.0600410021235 | 39.2565743083007 | 72.8635076959463 |
| 92 | 49.1944187264228 | 31.6405861600407 | 66.7482512928049 |
| 93 | 47.9606785629975 | 29.5786792495783 | 66.3426778764167 |
| 94 | 58.0207542715621 | 38.7354052151096 | 77.3061033280146 |
| 95 | 50.6349707270281 | 30.3740966464391 | 70.895844807617 |
| 96 | 77.062959049322 | 55.7575958295069 | 98.3683222691372 |
