| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 0.768991824691135 |
| beta | 0.729803955352783 |
| gamma | 1 |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 13 | 896 | 903.770032051282 | -7.77003205128221 |
| 14 | 889 | 886.612471780298 | 2.38752821970195 |
| 15 | 878 | 874.814238181876 | 3.18576181812375 |
| 16 | 883 | 881.459398185756 | 1.54060181424438 |
| 17 | 901 | 900.954049786438 | 0.0459502135618095 |
| 18 | 897 | 897.241781061954 | -0.241781061954157 |
| 19 | 881 | 880.339225263874 | 0.660774736125859 |
| 20 | 866 | 869.70989638307 | -3.70989638307083 |
| 21 | 867 | 865.304180709716 | 1.69581929028436 |
| 22 | 866 | 865.132132493982 | 0.867867506018456 |
| 23 | 862 | 865.602121557149 | -3.60212155714862 |
| 24 | 871 | 861.821500470522 | 9.17849952947813 |
| 25 | 865 | 871.391894037613 | -6.3918940376135 |
| 26 | 856 | 860.792986846258 | -4.7929868462578 |
| 27 | 847 | 842.779990723652 | 4.22000927634758 |
| 28 | 859 | 849.54346293209 | 9.45653706791052 |
| 29 | 870 | 878.925685014414 | -8.92568501441428 |
| 30 | 872 | 867.358390803323 | 4.64160919667722 |
| 31 | 856 | 856.270800335272 | -0.270800335272043 |
| 32 | 839 | 845.243805159692 | -6.24380515969244 |
| 33 | 829 | 840.044603702055 | -11.0446037020552 |
| 34 | 825 | 822.640221050535 | 2.35977894946518 |
| 35 | 822 | 816.818364626724 | 5.18163537327587 |
| 36 | 827 | 821.267860589491 | 5.73213941050903 |
| 37 | 822 | 821.180051966459 | 0.819948033541323 |
| 38 | 812 | 817.13264328428 | -5.13264328428022 |
| 39 | 810 | 801.386200506656 | 8.61379949334412 |
| 40 | 816 | 815.649666180763 | 0.350333819237335 |
| 41 | 820 | 831.583850658154 | -11.5838506581536 |
| 42 | 823 | 817.41580865937 | 5.58419134062945 |
| 43 | 810 | 802.75644298545 | 7.24355701454988 |
| 44 | 793 | 797.183464927787 | -4.1834649277871 |
| 45 | 777 | 794.671265536733 | -17.6712655367334 |
| 46 | 772 | 773.760226477783 | -1.76022647778268 |
| 47 | 765 | 761.602460117091 | 3.3975398829092 |
| 48 | 765 | 759.986382743761 | 5.01361725623906 |
| 49 | 753 | 752.987246497228 | 0.0127535027721706 |
| 50 | 742 | 741.266972680605 | 0.733027319395319 |
| 51 | 736 | 730.821573637208 | 5.17842636279181 |
| 52 | 740 | 736.221210656225 | 3.77878934377543 |
| 53 | 742 | 749.645923301676 | -7.64592330167602 |
| 54 | 742 | 742.293058489909 | -0.293058489908503 |
| 55 | 728 | 720.020057341917 | 7.97994265808313 |
| 56 | 707 | 709.309482295501 | -2.30948229550097 |
| 57 | 699 | 703.110135911258 | -4.11013591125823 |
| 58 | 696 | 701.901328632517 | -5.90132863251654 |
| 59 | 689 | 691.024787126059 | -2.02478712605864 |
| 60 | 692 | 685.843442157568 | 6.15655784243177 |
| 61 | 673 | 679.440541357478 | -6.44054135747831 |
| 62 | 653 | 660.175014836356 | -7.17501483635579 |
| 63 | 642 | 637.488110453274 | 4.51188954672614 |
| 64 | 648 | 634.49058011224 | 13.5094198877603 |
| 65 | 654 | 650.65854670793 | 3.34145329207013 |
| 66 | 653 | 657.519398794553 | -4.51939879455335 |
| 67 | 630 | 635.601571358116 | -5.6015713581163 |
| 68 | 609 | 606.141919772997 | 2.85808022700292 |
| 69 | 598 | 600.472463694726 | -2.47246369472634 |
| 70 | 601 | 598.00035886708 | 2.99964113292026 |
| 71 | 592 | 597.750571584554 | -5.75057158455377 |
| 72 | 591 | 592.389595163245 | -1.38959516324496 |
| 73 | 568 | 573.834239012965 | -5.83423901296533 |
| 74 | 538 | 551.766057103879 | -13.7660571038787 |
| 75 | 523 | 519.912257582851 | 3.08774241714946 |
| 76 | 530 | 510.300614558721 | 19.6993854412788 |
| 77 | 529 | 524.756163242897 | 4.2438367571026 |
| 78 | 534 | 526.877881912528 | 7.12211808747224 |
| 79 | 513 | 516.578531067405 | -3.57853106740504 |
| 80 | 491 | 494.680422662202 | -3.68042266220232 |
| 81 | 480 | 483.133610528595 | -3.1336105285954 |
| 82 | 478 | 481.428244198975 | -3.42824419897539 |
| 83 | 462 | 470.617734449276 | -8.61773444927587 |
| 84 | 461 | 458.853904045013 | 2.14609595498695 |
| 85 | 437 | 438.769542800978 | -1.76954280097806 |
| 86 | 411 | 417.054752106214 | -6.05475210621438 |
| 87 | 400 | 398.411923176506 | 1.58807682349357 |
| 88 | 405 | 394.030517291353 | 10.9694827086469 |
| 89 | 395 | 395.849189114665 | -0.849189114664853 |
| 90 | 407 | 389.507750384278 | 17.4922496157224 |
| 91 | 385 | 385.319295289814 | -0.31929528981442 |
| 92 | 366 | 368.341387966974 | -2.34138796697374 |
| 93 | 349 | 361.139497893285 | -12.1394978932851 |
| 94 | 343 | 350.575288727777 | -7.57528872777664 |
| 95 | 332 | 331.184218230723 | 0.815781769276782 |
| 96 | 327 | 330.262729297620 | -3.26272929761961 |
| 97 | 306 | 303.180488353435 | 2.81951164656454 |
| 98 | 276 | 284.646170170953 | -8.6461701709535 |
| 99 | 269 | 264.963225222065 | 4.03677477793508 |
| 100 | 268 | 265.193378621304 | 2.80662137869615 |
| 101 | 260 | 253.984909981498 | 6.01509001850235 |
| 102 | 274 | 256.991635633593 | 17.0083643664070 |
| 103 | 247 | 247.877468977656 | -0.87746897765615 |
| 104 | 226 | 229.250960956314 | -3.25096095631363 |
| 105 | 212 | 217.823459001706 | -5.823459001706 |
| 106 | 199 | 215.452532419926 | -16.4525324199259 |
| 107 | 188 | 188.473243654802 | -0.473243654801763 |
| 108 | 179 | 182.194820801609 | -3.19482080160881 |
| 109 | 155 | 153.184444959842 | 1.81555504015776 |
| 110 | 124 | 127.280588985871 | -3.28058898587113 |
| 111 | 117 | 113.715994330466 | 3.28400566953428 |
| 112 | 116 | 111.723033187744 | 4.27696681225648 |
| 113 | 105 | 101.851542268803 | 3.14845773119688 |
| 114 | 112 | 103.049706897292 | 8.9502931027082 |
| 115 | 86 | 76.9411985476 | 9.05880145239999 |
| 116 | 64 | 64.3176950315437 | -0.317695031543721 |
| 117 | 53 | 55.1081601179772 | -2.10816011797725 |
| 118 | 42 | 55.7805178084333 | -13.7805178084333 |
| 119 | 32 | 38.6885555070466 | -6.68855550704657 |
| 120 | 24 | 27.6550092910357 | -3.65500929103571 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 121 | -0.156966635392177 | -13.2660857899975 | 12.9521525192132 |
| 122 | -29.2582907949413 | -51.0740298877948 | -7.4425517020878 |
| 123 | -37.5666244872557 | -70.5925235666712 | -4.54072540784015 |
| 124 | -42.4815647584413 | -88.5733304084701 | 3.61020089158754 |
| 125 | -58.9289813252306 | -119.636478939499 | 1.77851628903826 |
| 126 | -63.6049181363643 | -140.297873939165 | 13.0880376664360 |
| 127 | -106.387320288330 | -200.31244851559 | -12.4621920610693 |
| 128 | -143.043192933233 | -255.355312657759 | -30.7310732087067 |
| 129 | -167.143917895076 | -298.925207483226 | -35.3626283069263 |
| 130 | -181.085567773435 | -333.358576216247 | -28.8125593306231 |
| 131 | -191.747069148066 | -365.484071319053 | -18.0100669770792 |
| 132 | -198.98763661954 | -395.117670008475 | -2.85760323060447 |
