| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 0.206674112244381 |
| beta | 0.156145216303958 |
| gamma | 1 |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 13 | 125 | 136.497707249167 | -11.497707249167 |
| 14 | 118 | 125.868466827844 | -7.86846682784406 |
| 15 | 111 | 115.829465823458 | -4.82946582345791 |
| 16 | 104 | 106.517461771267 | -2.51746177126746 |
| 17 | 126 | 127.127195352308 | -1.12719535230811 |
| 18 | 131 | 130.336377069246 | 0.663622930753945 |
| 19 | 122 | 117.326137698583 | 4.67386230141722 |
| 20 | 116 | 108.433819474594 | 7.56618052540635 |
| 21 | 115 | 110.361495776654 | 4.63850422334642 |
| 22 | 115 | 111.355941877338 | 3.64405812266216 |
| 23 | 113 | 113.273838994097 | -0.273838994097034 |
| 24 | 122 | 114.965256489656 | 7.03474351034428 |
| 25 | 114 | 104.112777485435 | 9.88722251456544 |
| 26 | 106 | 101.894963219054 | 4.10503678094598 |
| 27 | 93 | 98.2124211486975 | -5.21242114869752 |
| 28 | 89 | 92.1233403863731 | -3.12334038637309 |
| 29 | 114 | 111.830786669907 | 2.16921333009276 |
| 30 | 122 | 117.596665005009 | 4.40333499499071 |
| 31 | 115 | 110.541878156574 | 4.45812184342579 |
| 32 | 116 | 105.528235318581 | 10.4717646814189 |
| 33 | 120 | 107.029892660232 | 12.9701073397680 |
| 34 | 120 | 110.494493199738 | 9.5055068002625 |
| 35 | 120 | 112.308917268727 | 7.6910827312734 |
| 36 | 121 | 123.663846534212 | -2.66384653421156 |
| 37 | 118 | 114.595993170302 | 3.40400682969825 |
| 38 | 112 | 107.755031686656 | 4.24496831334436 |
| 39 | 99 | 97.6588251140776 | 1.34117488592241 |
| 40 | 96 | 95.8752952217872 | 0.124704778212759 |
| 41 | 120 | 124.446887300445 | -4.44688730044543 |
| 42 | 135 | 133.207648979929 | 1.79235102007070 |
| 43 | 128 | 126.706194912045 | 1.29380508795455 |
| 44 | 134 | 127.222212879329 | 6.77778712067129 |
| 45 | 134 | 131.369433412117 | 2.63056658788315 |
| 46 | 132 | 130.728257439174 | 1.271742560826 |
| 47 | 130 | 129.952663178631 | 0.0473368213690435 |
| 48 | 125 | 132.14519310741 | -7.14519310740994 |
| 49 | 124 | 127.014338051243 | -3.01433805124296 |
| 50 | 114 | 119.134346479543 | -5.134346479543 |
| 51 | 101 | 103.923333356148 | -2.92333335614836 |
| 52 | 101 | 99.8862219572254 | 1.11377804277460 |
| 53 | 123 | 125.771961793655 | -2.77196179365495 |
| 54 | 143 | 140.180102773959 | 2.81989722604084 |
| 55 | 133 | 132.949390419299 | 0.0506095807014333 |
| 56 | 136 | 137.394194343486 | -1.39419434348619 |
| 57 | 137 | 135.994819057389 | 1.00518094261091 |
| 58 | 135 | 133.318218875344 | 1.68178112465566 |
| 59 | 141 | 131.076384087444 | 9.92361591255647 |
| 60 | 136 | 129.216539914763 | 6.78346008523744 |
| 61 | 133 | 130.405324525263 | 2.59467547473665 |
| 62 | 124 | 121.806190773239 | 2.19380922676073 |
| 63 | 110 | 109.463847125284 | 0.536152874716379 |
| 64 | 104 | 109.946623474011 | -5.946623474011 |
| 65 | 130 | 133.486170377532 | -3.4861703775322 |
| 66 | 160 | 154.249954231527 | 5.75004576847334 |
| 67 | 142 | 145.131414581241 | -3.13141458124142 |
| 68 | 142 | 148.535983295595 | -6.53598329559478 |
| 69 | 137 | 148.363336605893 | -11.3633366058930 |
| 70 | 135 | 143.435306155354 | -8.43530615535431 |
| 71 | 139 | 145.300218303875 | -6.3002183038752 |
| 72 | 135 | 136.499747085003 | -1.49974708500298 |
| 73 | 134 | 131.512780408953 | 2.48721959104736 |
| 74 | 120 | 121.599293388196 | -1.5992933881964 |
| 75 | 103 | 106.460309284893 | -3.4603092848927 |
| 76 | 101 | 100.042096228068 | 0.95790377193218 |
| 77 | 127 | 124.906187861806 | 2.09381213819428 |
| 78 | 159 | 151.989770662127 | 7.01022933787294 |
| 79 | 141 | 135.859115598457 | 5.14088440154296 |
| 80 | 140 | 137.505210337323 | 2.49478966267679 |
| 81 | 135 | 134.911431998035 | 0.0885680019652568 |
| 82 | 127 | 134.539329979635 | -7.53932997963528 |
| 83 | 130 | 138.113277855539 | -8.11327785553866 |
| 84 | 128 | 132.699208207592 | -4.69920820759233 |
| 85 | 126 | 130.026352503398 | -4.02635250339841 |
| 86 | 110 | 115.626259796421 | -5.62625979642135 |
| 87 | 101 | 98.461966970452 | 2.53803302954793 |
| 88 | 102 | 96.6151552203016 | 5.38484477969838 |
| 89 | 129 | 122.320837513975 | 6.67916248602478 |
| 90 | 169 | 153.420600807372 | 15.579399192628 |
| 91 | 146 | 138.083670415765 | 7.9163295842352 |
| 92 | 145 | 138.547422449867 | 6.45257755013265 |
| 93 | 138 | 135.312671755108 | 2.68732824489229 |
| 94 | 123 | 129.816666734662 | -6.81666673466157 |
| 95 | 124 | 133.592182462144 | -9.5921824621443 |
| 96 | 137 | 131.016504740961 | 5.98349525903944 |
| 97 | 132 | 131.849065171388 | 0.150934828611526 |
| 98 | 112 | 117.160761905490 | -5.16076190548961 |
| 99 | 105 | 106.839523079279 | -1.83952307927935 |
| 100 | 106 | 106.952241870461 | -0.952241870460966 |
| 101 | 137 | 134.057920517065 | 2.94207948293533 |
| 102 | 175 | 173.322657341209 | 1.67734265879105 |
| 103 | 151 | 148.291843001298 | 2.70815699870235 |
| 104 | 142 | 146.257365484352 | -4.25736548435154 |
| 105 | 140 | 137.310720799050 | 2.68927920095015 |
| 106 | 122 | 123.797097441325 | -1.79709744132461 |
| 107 | 127 | 126.016400504588 | 0.983599495412335 |
| 108 | 135 | 138.187228930160 | -3.1872289301603 |
| 109 | 128 | 132.225310477006 | -4.22531047700616 |
| 110 | 117 | 112.140293426311 | 4.8597065736893 |
| 111 | 107 | 106.434032035451 | 0.565967964548932 |
| 112 | 108 | 107.823958537440 | 0.176041462560207 |
| 113 | 134 | 138.899016279422 | -4.89901627942174 |
| 114 | 171 | 175.614202884575 | -4.61420288457478 |
| 115 | 154 | 149.824044485801 | 4.17595551419856 |
| 116 | 146 | 142.308382497310 | 3.69161750268964 |
| 117 | 148 | 140.484395652935 | 7.51560434706499 |
| 118 | 122 | 124.278204568723 | -2.27820456872307 |
| 119 | 124 | 128.792888611097 | -4.79288861109745 |
| 120 | 135 | 136.432504114121 | -1.43250411412075 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 121 | 129.920542091987 | 119.61912351386 | 140.221960670115 |
| 122 | 117.809395866572 | 107.269169687027 | 128.349622046116 |
| 123 | 107.571174468567 | 96.7773312182415 | 118.365017718892 |
| 124 | 108.470298979205 | 97.2599351972896 | 119.680662761120 |
| 125 | 135.477907013571 | 123.077610847703 | 147.87820317944 |
| 126 | 173.907459891797 | 159.306299443702 | 188.508620339891 |
| 127 | 155.923697153213 | 141.23034115805 | 170.617053148375 |
| 128 | 147.094206191856 | 131.965590877942 | 162.222821505770 |
| 129 | 147.414793932782 | 131.332818210342 | 163.496769655222 |
| 130 | 121.720603655513 | 106.470496083891 | 136.970711227135 |
| 131 | 124.483372343429 | 108.152042446747 | 140.814702240111 |
| 132 | 135.774713610729 | -40.0558894088902 | 311.605316630347 |
