| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 0.116508597215365 |
| beta | 0.113960080374117 |
| gamma | 0.923119969726914 |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 13 | 24 | 26.4444669311186 | -2.44446693111864 |
| 14 | 21 | 22.7999103475503 | -1.79991034755028 |
| 15 | 15 | 15.5071479699010 | -0.507147969901043 |
| 16 | 21 | 20.4863904332728 | 0.513609566727155 |
| 17 | 49 | 45.1358407222432 | 3.86415927775681 |
| 18 | 48 | 41.8380525166743 | 6.16194748332573 |
| 19 | 35 | 36.3824260342733 | -1.38242603427332 |
| 20 | 36 | 26.4011771216597 | 9.5988228783403 |
| 21 | 51 | 30.4618799396217 | 20.5381200603783 |
| 22 | 50 | 34.9644587202633 | 15.0355412797367 |
| 23 | 61 | 39.9088891886615 | 21.0911108113385 |
| 24 | 63 | 47.3590795126269 | 15.6409204873731 |
| 25 | 61 | 41.7474488407776 | 19.2525511592224 |
| 26 | 62 | 39.6124065589765 | 22.3875934410235 |
| 27 | 58 | 30.9248103084356 | 27.0751896915644 |
| 28 | 65 | 48.8396652611018 | 16.1603347388982 |
| 29 | 93 | 120.376007733544 | -27.3760077335443 |
| 30 | 94 | 115.441865223909 | -21.4418652239095 |
| 31 | 86 | 85.4818643154791 | 0.518135684520871 |
| 32 | 88 | 84.3868182017308 | 3.61318179826920 |
| 33 | 102 | 112.134675530090 | -10.1346755300897 |
| 34 | 107 | 105.140763240839 | 1.85923675916068 |
| 35 | 121 | 121.118271453613 | -0.118271453613005 |
| 36 | 127 | 121.077115027069 | 5.92288497293131 |
| 37 | 125 | 110.945392624378 | 14.0546073756224 |
| 38 | 128 | 106.352336148663 | 21.6476638513365 |
| 39 | 117 | 90.9649988625661 | 26.0350011374339 |
| 40 | 127 | 101.772867383471 | 25.2271326165286 |
| 41 | 160 | 157.892212670898 | 2.10778732910242 |
| 42 | 162 | 161.286935759247 | 0.713064240753056 |
| 43 | 153 | 144.317225248130 | 8.68277475187034 |
| 44 | 160 | 146.834948882523 | 13.1650511174767 |
| 45 | 177 | 174.675906040562 | 2.32409395943776 |
| 46 | 178 | 181.105546752881 | -3.10554675288139 |
| 47 | 196 | 203.976018348845 | -7.97601834884512 |
| 48 | 212 | 210.472869930212 | 1.52713006978769 |
| 49 | 212 | 202.646610211188 | 9.35338978881151 |
| 50 | 211 | 202.148783322787 | 8.85121667721307 |
| 51 | 204 | 178.105414782944 | 25.8945852170555 |
| 52 | 216 | 190.21585649707 | 25.7841435029301 |
| 53 | 248 | 244.510236825574 | 3.48976317442575 |
| 54 | 250 | 246.450783325021 | 3.54921667497905 |
| 55 | 240 | 229.372890883863 | 10.6271091161367 |
| 56 | 249 | 236.937563788766 | 12.0624362112345 |
| 57 | 275 | 263.042385367727 | 11.9576146322730 |
| 58 | 277 | 265.712552142234 | 11.2874478577659 |
| 59 | 286 | 294.649798731673 | -8.64979873167329 |
| 60 | 302 | 315.135086901385 | -13.1350869013848 |
| 61 | 290 | 309.893093353792 | -19.8930933537925 |
| 62 | 290 | 303.117698760301 | -13.1176987603006 |
| 63 | 277 | 283.486602623844 | -6.4866026238443 |
| 64 | 285 | 292.823866971079 | -7.82386697107933 |
| 65 | 311 | 334.270974687350 | -23.2709746873496 |
| 66 | 300 | 330.791503884563 | -30.7915038845633 |
| 67 | 291 | 308.866917739733 | -17.8669177397330 |
| 68 | 299 | 313.146783649465 | -14.1467836494645 |
| 69 | 332 | 338.698860574392 | -6.69886057439152 |
| 70 | 337 | 335.098864372296 | 1.90113562770421 |
| 71 | 343 | 345.341446975476 | -2.34144697547589 |
| 72 | 360 | 362.791377332174 | -2.79137733217431 |
| 73 | 353 | 348.003837533957 | 4.99616246604324 |
| 74 | 351 | 346.945006011618 | 4.05499398838157 |
| 75 | 341 | 329.821484837055 | 11.1785151629454 |
| 76 | 348 | 339.658970072508 | 8.34102992749234 |
| 77 | 381 | 373.841083503257 | 7.1589164967433 |
| 78 | 358 | 364.443136986266 | -6.4431369862657 |
| 79 | 353 | 352.952257879794 | 0.0477421202064647 |
| 80 | 358 | 363.236019478418 | -5.23601947841757 |
| 81 | 399 | 401.904778684521 | -2.90477868452052 |
| 82 | 409 | 405.775236689811 | 3.22476331018885 |
| 83 | 407 | 413.224574255489 | -6.22457425548936 |
| 84 | 419 | 432.469211640472 | -13.4692116404721 |
| 85 | 418 | 420.232241543497 | -2.23224154349737 |
| 86 | 421 | 416.084403274391 | 4.91559672560919 |
| 87 | 414 | 401.662335549377 | 12.3376644506232 |
| 88 | 424 | 409.493631417327 | 14.5063685826732 |
| 89 | 463 | 448.375875034616 | 14.6241249653841 |
| 90 | 437 | 424.032348112696 | 12.9676518873035 |
| 91 | 430 | 418.531764110505 | 11.4682358894946 |
| 92 | 436 | 426.552824927083 | 9.44717507291728 |
| 93 | 474 | 476.553445223035 | -2.553445223035 |
| 94 | 489 | 487.009146895982 | 1.99085310401750 |
| 95 | 482 | 486.231795117647 | -4.23179511764693 |
| 96 | 492 | 502.246427752703 | -10.2464277527030 |
| 97 | 502 | 499.117353209686 | 2.88264679031357 |
| 98 | 500 | 501.693261568068 | -1.69326156806761 |
| 99 | 493 | 490.637377835757 | 2.36262216424342 |
| 100 | 504 | 500.247827420412 | 3.75217257958786 |
| 101 | 538 | 544.266158879228 | -6.26615887922787 |
| 102 | 516 | 510.539515840027 | 5.46048415997313 |
| 103 | 502 | 500.687709295027 | 1.31229070497284 |
| 104 | 501 | 505.760629563508 | -4.76062956350842 |
| 105 | 541 | 549.401803617438 | -8.40180361743785 |
| 106 | 571 | 563.886924550248 | 7.11307544975182 |
| 107 | 559 | 556.52810803436 | 2.47189196563954 |
| 108 | 569 | 569.123138142177 | -0.123138142176572 |
| 109 | 576 | 578.319365692353 | -2.31936569235324 |
| 110 | 573 | 575.369278243249 | -2.36927824324903 |
| 111 | 562 | 565.481496797421 | -3.48149679742119 |
| 112 | 570 | 576.077233259365 | -6.07723325936456 |
| 113 | 597 | 614.63374958803 | -17.6337495880302 |
| 114 | 573 | 584.699471116764 | -11.6994711167645 |
| 115 | 562 | 566.285335599852 | -4.28533559985181 |
| 116 | 556 | 564.350268451656 | -8.35026845165567 |
| 117 | 600 | 608.180435407701 | -8.18043540770122 |
| 118 | 630 | 637.202970029505 | -7.20297002950474 |
| 119 | 624 | 621.356514805579 | 2.64348519442080 |
| 120 | 634 | 631.355294228884 | 2.64470577111581 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 121 | 638.301890061408 | 617.075085764316 | 659.528694358501 |
| 122 | 633.76228918743 | 612.33697205899 | 655.187606315869 |
| 123 | 620.694976661165 | 599.049663884489 | 642.340289437841 |
| 124 | 629.116610441239 | 607.17979435738 | 651.053426525099 |
| 125 | 660.63537349351 | 638.280785539932 | 682.989961447088 |
| 126 | 634.123589831142 | 611.512970567519 | 656.734209094764 |
| 127 | 621.106080396055 | 598.169561865774 | 644.042598926336 |
| 128 | 615.071615963833 | 591.747445347015 | 638.395786580651 |
| 129 | 664.024070526507 | 639.839811170905 | 688.20832988211 |
| 130 | 697.4299466292 | 672.366044308721 | 722.493848949679 |
| 131 | 689.212738480854 | 663.625475474793 | 714.800001486914 |
| 132 | 699.38549502688 | 682.363862116969 | 716.40712793679 |
