| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 0.509341826247958 |
| beta | 0.078544945072969 |
| gamma | 1 |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 13 | 302 | 300.999732905983 | 1.00026709401698 |
| 14 | 297 | 296.626296450144 | 0.373703549856259 |
| 15 | 301 | 301.157008776380 | -0.157008776379655 |
| 16 | 298 | 298.494459121936 | -0.494459121936472 |
| 17 | 295 | 296.265250448955 | -1.2652504489551 |
| 18 | 287 | 288.926160952036 | -1.92616095203596 |
| 19 | 290 | 289.006716995916 | 0.99328300408439 |
| 20 | 288 | 291.030672126812 | -3.03067212681174 |
| 21 | 288 | 289.842146182603 | -1.84214618260268 |
| 22 | 287 | 288.018622230618 | -1.01862223061840 |
| 23 | 274 | 287.657135574702 | -13.6571355747016 |
| 24 | 282 | 281.645288335265 | 0.35471166473485 |
| 25 | 296 | 286.48357419176 | 9.51642580824029 |
| 26 | 292 | 285.654136124440 | 6.34586387555964 |
| 27 | 298 | 292.719035831855 | 5.28096416814458 |
| 28 | 296 | 292.630967926127 | 3.36903207387326 |
| 29 | 292 | 292.116232999024 | -0.116232999024191 |
| 30 | 296 | 285.208904008870 | 10.7910959911295 |
| 31 | 293 | 293.878908422203 | -0.878908422202755 |
| 32 | 295 | 293.57956081756 | 1.42043918244013 |
| 33 | 294 | 296.024073310026 | -2.0240733100257 |
| 34 | 291 | 295.28741810765 | -4.28741810764978 |
| 35 | 279 | 287.704498014518 | -8.7044980145182 |
| 36 | 284 | 291.933090849267 | -7.93309084926716 |
| 37 | 299 | 297.556585706452 | 1.4434142935483 |
| 38 | 296 | 291.247855900657 | 4.7521440993433 |
| 39 | 299 | 297.103039825277 | 1.89696017472301 |
| 40 | 299 | 294.342404912262 | 4.65759508773829 |
| 41 | 291 | 292.814618647480 | -1.81461864747968 |
| 42 | 298 | 290.366758351913 | 7.63324164808733 |
| 43 | 288 | 291.548775999850 | -3.54877599984974 |
| 44 | 284 | 290.757359124645 | -6.75735912464529 |
| 45 | 277 | 286.758948099093 | -9.7589480990934 |
| 46 | 270 | 280.075075289218 | -10.0750752892178 |
| 47 | 251 | 266.248446905583 | -15.2484469055829 |
| 48 | 257 | 266.132095343942 | -9.1320953439423 |
| 49 | 269 | 274.307243558909 | -5.30724355890897 |
| 50 | 271 | 264.475205943233 | 6.524794056767 |
| 51 | 268 | 268.194901603801 | -0.194901603800758 |
| 52 | 268 | 264.002180882003 | 3.99781911799749 |
| 53 | 258 | 257.215162206955 | 0.784837793044858 |
| 54 | 261 | 259.083441780305 | 1.91655821969528 |
| 55 | 255 | 249.994920264635 | 5.00507973536531 |
| 56 | 251 | 250.455985010327 | 0.544014989673258 |
| 57 | 239 | 247.465778122548 | -8.46577812254827 |
| 58 | 229 | 240.099258407255 | -11.0992584072547 |
| 59 | 210 | 221.985437880254 | -11.9854378802537 |
| 60 | 218 | 225.435476083455 | -7.43547608345511 |
| 61 | 226 | 235.322718477454 | -9.3227184774538 |
| 62 | 227 | 228.061513740369 | -1.06151374036861 |
| 63 | 222 | 223.1272086282 | -1.12720862820001 |
| 64 | 215 | 218.986616247199 | -3.98661624719853 |
| 65 | 203 | 204.706686619467 | -1.70668661946675 |
| 66 | 205 | 203.91191147498 | 1.08808852501997 |
| 67 | 194 | 193.934375071696 | 0.065624928304402 |
| 68 | 190 | 187.510653113197 | 2.48934688680305 |
| 69 | 182 | 178.988323988319 | 3.01167601168112 |
| 70 | 179 | 174.532550212722 | 4.46744978727796 |
| 71 | 158 | 162.892396424216 | -4.8923964242164 |
| 72 | 163 | 171.451161439866 | -8.4511614398663 |
| 73 | 165 | 179.117916333114 | -14.1179163331138 |
| 74 | 169 | 172.498741064334 | -3.49874106433359 |
| 75 | 163 | 165.224312807779 | -2.22431280777860 |
| 76 | 154 | 158.011529067990 | -4.01152906799032 |
| 77 | 142 | 143.726181146087 | -1.72618114608693 |
| 78 | 146 | 143.180580729859 | 2.81941927014068 |
| 79 | 133 | 132.540292215315 | 0.459707784685293 |
| 80 | 131 | 126.479366742414 | 4.52063325758616 |
| 81 | 128 | 118.302060496914 | 9.69793950308576 |
| 82 | 120 | 117.287778562844 | 2.71222143715582 |
| 83 | 88 | 99.4125193325367 | -11.4125193325367 |
| 84 | 95 | 101.894721206481 | -6.89472120648109 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 85 | 106.626609214165 | 95.0943192121202 | 118.158899216209 |
| 86 | 112.026281536148 | 98.868432478417 | 125.184130593879 |
| 87 | 106.916805667433 | 92.107253891232 | 121.726357443633 |
| 88 | 99.8066201529557 | 83.3141697280492 | 116.299070577862 |
| 89 | 88.6928974918854 | 70.4833122189284 | 106.902482764842 |
| 90 | 91.3329684060636 | 71.3701840169507 | 111.295752795176 |
| 91 | 78.0621447538117 | 56.3090316973706 | 99.8152578102527 |
| 92 | 73.704530731515 | 50.1233897620381 | 97.285671700992 |
| 93 | 65.5290446163823 | 40.0819363668526 | 90.976152865912 |
| 94 | 55.5236989413782 | 28.1726666658299 | 82.8747312169264 |
| 95 | 28.6041687821459 | -0.688609621680868 | 57.8969471859727 |
| 96 | 38.8401068997453 | 7.56799902603302 | 70.1122147734576 |
