| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 0.384345027192648 |
| beta | 0.0463295896458016 |
| gamma | 1 |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 13 | 255 | 255.300480769231 | -0.300480769230774 |
| 14 | 259 | 259.140160602771 | -0.140160602770720 |
| 15 | 258 | 257.538962918633 | 0.461037081367351 |
| 16 | 258 | 256.552042053392 | 1.44795794660831 |
| 17 | 288 | 285.595222446737 | 2.40477755326299 |
| 18 | 289 | 286.382305816624 | 2.61769418337627 |
| 19 | 271 | 272.589501396703 | -1.58950139670253 |
| 20 | 268 | 263.443045411867 | 4.55695458813261 |
| 21 | 274 | 267.531759514167 | 6.46824048583335 |
| 22 | 284 | 271.386910544213 | 12.6130894557874 |
| 23 | 284 | 278.328399293867 | 5.67160070613261 |
| 24 | 279 | 283.202952988042 | -4.20295298804217 |
| 25 | 273 | 275.064105179402 | -2.06410517940202 |
| 26 | 280 | 278.827586024101 | 1.17241397589942 |
| 27 | 276 | 278.627311992736 | -2.62731199273571 |
| 28 | 271 | 277.532321219691 | -6.53232121969137 |
| 29 | 298 | 304.426609492209 | -6.42660949220902 |
| 30 | 297 | 302.122437581545 | -5.1224375815454 |
| 31 | 278 | 282.798707335886 | -4.79870733588564 |
| 32 | 270 | 276.179896530020 | -6.17989653001956 |
| 33 | 280 | 277.104453047172 | 2.89554695282754 |
| 34 | 289 | 283.091751655360 | 5.90824834463962 |
| 35 | 288 | 282.785503673148 | 5.21449632685193 |
| 36 | 293 | 280.999711710104 | 12.0002882898957 |
| 37 | 285 | 280.288473408171 | 4.71152659182911 |
| 38 | 283 | 288.652546358686 | -5.65254635868632 |
| 39 | 275 | 283.372116210301 | -8.37211621030099 |
| 40 | 268 | 277.445008662307 | -9.44500866230715 |
| 41 | 295 | 303.013045551913 | -8.01304555191268 |
| 42 | 290 | 300.601949404772 | -10.6019494047719 |
| 43 | 267 | 278.973825638867 | -11.9738256388671 |
| 44 | 252 | 268.221517178735 | -16.2215171787346 |
| 45 | 268 | 270.169721432029 | -2.16972143202929 |
| 46 | 278 | 275.270551763788 | 2.72944823621174 |
| 47 | 280 | 272.464390278269 | 7.53560972173085 |
| 48 | 278 | 274.938698678703 | 3.06130132129698 |
| 49 | 261 | 265.335555713253 | -4.33555571325303 |
| 50 | 263 | 262.711750129884 | 0.288249870115692 |
| 51 | 259 | 257.016119447356 | 1.98388055264411 |
| 52 | 265 | 253.568961411407 | 11.4310385885930 |
| 53 | 294 | 287.574134011810 | 6.42586598818963 |
| 54 | 285 | 288.907732897365 | -3.90773289736535 |
| 55 | 255 | 268.916139130245 | -13.9161391302451 |
| 56 | 231 | 254.675857420555 | -23.6758574205552 |
| 57 | 246 | 262.151002638017 | -16.1510026380166 |
| 58 | 258 | 264.386358525733 | -6.38635852573339 |
| 59 | 265 | 260.365161508343 | 4.63483849165698 |
| 60 | 260 | 258.247932221748 | 1.75206777825224 |
| 61 | 238 | 242.842356635871 | -4.84235663587134 |
| 62 | 241 | 242.116085761908 | -1.11608576190832 |
| 63 | 239 | 236.145274978554 | 2.85472502144555 |
| 64 | 233 | 238.085164094791 | -5.08516409479051 |
| 65 | 265 | 261.603012966125 | 3.39698703387535 |
| 66 | 255 | 254.298667911679 | 0.701332088320754 |
| 67 | 224 | 228.887013983715 | -4.88701398371543 |
| 68 | 194 | 211.239383769247 | -17.2393837692469 |
| 69 | 210 | 225.06665251076 | -15.0666525107600 |
| 70 | 222 | 232.995315831967 | -10.9953158319673 |
| 71 | 230 | 233.170765275649 | -3.17076527564896 |
| 72 | 225 | 225.322529550495 | -0.322529550495176 |
| 73 | 206 | 204.066591877689 | 1.93340812231122 |
| 74 | 204 | 207.366191926987 | -3.3661919269868 |
| 75 | 207 | 202.062689050656 | 4.93731094934387 |
| 76 | 195 | 199.039336776433 | -4.03933677643295 |
| 77 | 230 | 227.324404555456 | 2.67559544454357 |
| 78 | 221 | 217.213539221375 | 3.78646077862476 |
| 79 | 195 | 188.732417967583 | 6.26758203241738 |
| 80 | 162 | 167.151100073264 | -5.15110007326351 |
| 81 | 182 | 186.561240636430 | -4.5612406364302 |
| 82 | 203 | 200.820357848781 | 2.17964215121935 |
| 83 | 211 | 210.897573256833 | 0.102426743167342 |
| 84 | 206 | 206.140000263964 | -0.140000263963572 |
| 85 | 187 | 186.425443446638 | 0.574556553362072 |
| 86 | 181 | 185.998201458894 | -4.9982014588941 |
| 87 | 189 | 185.208627147520 | 3.79137285248038 |
| 88 | 174 | 176.227006727094 | -2.22700672709428 |
| 89 | 213 | 209.383672577348 | 3.61632742265240 |
| 90 | 201 | 200.375990471798 | 0.62400952820218 |
| 91 | 177 | 172.208306909913 | 4.79169309008699 |
| 92 | 140 | 143.004884997966 | -3.004884997966 |
| 93 | 165 | 163.616394207919 | 1.38360579208063 |
| 94 | 192 | 184.429630441255 | 7.57036955874486 |
| 95 | 197 | 195.515076218277 | 1.48492378172259 |
| 96 | 196 | 191.379404286335 | 4.62059571366467 |
| 97 | 176 | 174.259045686848 | 1.74095431315203 |
| 98 | 164 | 171.194542581722 | -7.19454258172203 |
| 99 | 177 | 175.278387249546 | 1.72161275045426 |
| 100 | 165 | 162.065390862789 | 2.93460913721137 |
| 101 | 208 | 201.164657740112 | 6.83534225988757 |
| 102 | 195 | 191.970554038310 | 3.02944596169044 |
| 103 | 164 | 167.754677086213 | -3.75467708621264 |
| 104 | 123 | 130.775750848478 | -7.7757508484776 |
| 105 | 147 | 152.479697645337 | -5.47969764533687 |
| 106 | 173 | 174.566057446934 | -1.56605744693428 |
| 107 | 176 | 178.332827999186 | -2.33282799918561 |
| 108 | 170 | 174.531733210713 | -4.53173321071338 |
| 109 | 157 | 151.829304612566 | 5.17069538743374 |
| 110 | 145 | 144.351341841831 | 0.648658158168786 |
| 111 | 148 | 156.848136911331 | -8.84813691133064 |
| 112 | 135 | 140.040466144071 | -5.04046614407090 |
| 113 | 175 | 178.055018767335 | -3.05501876733521 |
| 114 | 168 | 162.119332350466 | 5.88066764953408 |
| 115 | 140 | 134.276246943908 | 5.72375305609182 |
| 116 | 109 | 98.0871100137013 | 10.9128899862987 |
| 117 | 129 | 128.342695595965 | 0.657304404034704 |
| 118 | 150 | 155.261688528099 | -5.2616885280986 |
| 119 | 150 | 157.134643979543 | -7.1346439795426 |
| 120 | 152 | 150.047372836566 | 1.95262716343359 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 121 | 135.839133055065 | 123.164581818624 | 148.513684291507 |
| 122 | 123.526361022718 | 109.865300191828 | 137.187421853608 |
| 123 | 129.852084587366 | 115.190687049300 | 144.513482125432 |
| 124 | 118.871903596675 | 103.195739996269 | 134.548067197082 |
| 125 | 160.218379079257 | 143.512600517709 | 176.924157640805 |
| 126 | 151.184867259427 | 133.434339208654 | 168.9353953102 |
| 127 | 121.106950396081 | 102.296352229679 | 139.917548562483 |
| 128 | 85.932694278133 | 66.0465940775685 | 105.818794478697 |
| 129 | 105.505800586950 | 84.5287118600039 | 126.482889313896 |
| 130 | 128.342138073199 | 106.258563042390 | 150.425713104008 |
| 131 | 130.992029179503 | 107.786491969899 | 154.197566389106 |
| 132 | 132.276316187401 | 107.933388332629 | 156.619244042172 |
