| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 0.575651073368057 |
| beta | 0.0869583411263661 |
| gamma | 0.402742687472037 |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 13 | 205 | 209.192478598406 | -4.19247859840641 |
| 14 | 208 | 209.632082374054 | -1.63208237405388 |
| 15 | 201 | 202.032536769601 | -1.03253676960068 |
| 16 | 201 | 201.916846630005 | -0.916846630004585 |
| 17 | 220 | 220.811708811239 | -0.81170881123856 |
| 18 | 218 | 218.685886150255 | -0.685886150254959 |
| 19 | 203 | 198.712804324687 | 4.28719567531294 |
| 20 | 185 | 190.858097501976 | -5.85809750197632 |
| 21 | 179 | 187.294217200712 | -8.29421720071221 |
| 22 | 182 | 181.112639390593 | 0.88736060940741 |
| 23 | 182 | 181.100159314246 | 0.899840685754185 |
| 24 | 185 | 182.073315385259 | 2.92668461474102 |
| 25 | 183 | 180.230383720094 | 2.76961627990596 |
| 26 | 192 | 184.175768148198 | 7.82423185180241 |
| 27 | 177 | 182.689366602584 | -5.68936660258356 |
| 28 | 172 | 179.543655784908 | -7.54365578490805 |
| 29 | 188 | 191.372081448318 | -3.37208144831806 |
| 30 | 182 | 187.116246159165 | -5.11624615916494 |
| 31 | 162 | 167.284067282252 | -5.28406728225201 |
| 32 | 150 | 152.944275949712 | -2.94427594971205 |
| 33 | 141 | 149.328674507793 | -8.32867450779273 |
| 34 | 135 | 143.138082233170 | -8.1380822331703 |
| 35 | 139 | 135.997513541148 | 3.00248645885151 |
| 36 | 148 | 136.348949267036 | 11.6510507329643 |
| 37 | 142 | 138.832755683937 | 3.16724431606301 |
| 38 | 156 | 141.655536448269 | 14.3444635517309 |
| 39 | 143 | 142.369424298934 | 0.630575701065709 |
| 40 | 134 | 141.842565480813 | -7.84256548081308 |
| 41 | 146 | 149.737292151698 | -3.73729215169757 |
| 42 | 142 | 144.542665587422 | -2.54266558742177 |
| 43 | 117 | 129.013747026312 | -12.0137470263116 |
| 44 | 106 | 112.682713645966 | -6.6827136459658 |
| 45 | 104 | 105.194591570029 | -1.19459157002912 |
| 46 | 99 | 102.169049253627 | -3.16904925362729 |
| 47 | 105 | 98.7446736891192 | 6.25532631088082 |
| 48 | 106 | 101.366485883294 | 4.63351411670573 |
| 49 | 96 | 98.7245163533632 | -2.72451635336317 |
| 50 | 104 | 97.4367811841935 | 6.56321881580647 |
| 51 | 96 | 92.889276171447 | 3.11072382855301 |
| 52 | 85 | 91.4800289150223 | -6.48002891502232 |
| 53 | 91 | 94.2741655201472 | -3.27416552014725 |
| 54 | 98 | 88.5812307281074 | 9.41876927189264 |
| 55 | 73 | 82.3381903051804 | -9.33819030518038 |
| 56 | 70 | 70.1580679263133 | -0.158067926313279 |
| 57 | 62 | 67.2101684585941 | -5.21016845859411 |
| 58 | 60 | 61.102021148952 | -1.10202114895200 |
| 59 | 70 | 58.9448470669737 | 11.0551529330263 |
| 60 | 82 | 63.4252368036296 | 18.5747631963704 |
| 61 | 72 | 69.4333869408486 | 2.56661305915139 |
| 62 | 73 | 72.5449129311942 | 0.455087068805838 |
| 63 | 68 | 66.4581167395394 | 1.54188326046064 |
| 64 | 53 | 63.8455425495228 | -10.8455425495228 |
| 65 | 61 | 61.7379184546695 | -0.737918454669504 |
| 66 | 73 | 59.6693204883252 | 13.3306795116748 |
| 67 | 46 | 56.7766086813169 | -10.7766086813169 |
| 68 | 50 | 46.7232795210231 | 3.27672047897689 |
| 69 | 52 | 45.9089701530545 | 6.09102984694554 |
| 70 | 45 | 48.2520618502894 | -3.25206185028943 |
| 71 | 58 | 47.2614130239069 | 10.7385869760931 |
| 72 | 73 | 53.4153583517955 | 19.5846416482045 |
| 73 | 58 | 59.525784897736 | -1.52578489773599 |
| 74 | 49 | 60.572620874895 | -11.572620874895 |
| 75 | 44 | 49.4320353622459 | -5.43203536224589 |
| 76 | 35 | 41.9761871672008 | -6.97618716720078 |
| 77 | 46 | 41.5540333916603 | 4.4459666083397 |
| 78 | 61 | 44.4422974261529 | 16.5577025738471 |
| 79 | 29 | 42.7666858290369 | -13.7666858290369 |
| 80 | 33 | 33.7033191132543 | -0.703319113254338 |
| 81 | 37 | 31.4106339444663 | 5.58936605553374 |
| 82 | 31 | 32.475571950384 | -1.47557195038399 |
| 83 | 44 | 33.5162528869359 | 10.4837471130641 |
| 84 | 57 | 40.1635473865073 | 16.8364526134927 |
| 85 | 42 | 43.5059419744658 | -1.50594197446578 |
| 86 | 34 | 42.6721193844814 | -8.67211938448144 |
| 87 | 27 | 35.1708476984624 | -8.17084769846244 |
| 88 | 22 | 27.0296209699263 | -5.02962096992629 |
| 89 | 30 | 27.3511959517069 | 2.64880404829310 |
| 90 | 47 | 29.6164918695055 | 17.3835081304945 |
| 91 | 12 | 27.7540167311256 | -15.7540167311256 |
| 92 | 13 | 18.6342160669002 | -5.63421606690021 |
| 93 | 18 | 13.7716270638491 | 4.22837293615093 |
| 94 | 11 | 13.5886758044485 | -2.58867580444850 |
| 95 | 26 | 11.9705218550925 | 14.0294781449075 |
| 96 | 41 | 19.6406741559448 | 21.3593258440552 |
| 97 | 21 | 25.9952352375190 | -4.99523523751904 |
| 98 | 24 | 21.9305444788722 | 2.06945552112780 |
| 99 | 30 | 21.4364281173417 | 8.56357188265828 |
| 100 | 34 | 24.6424380278853 | 9.3575619721147 |
| 101 | 48 | 38.7865367504351 | 9.21346324956492 |
| 102 | 64 | 52.083562991078 | 11.916437008922 |
| 103 | 35 | 34.7471509256928 | 0.252849074307171 |
| 104 | 44 | 42.8344527948753 | 1.16554720512467 |
| 105 | 55 | 51.4261390729795 | 3.57386092702050 |
| 106 | 53 | 48.2597099385473 | 4.74029006145269 |
| 107 | 73 | 72.1526172665678 | 0.847382733432212 |
| 108 | 94 | 79.3749216267448 | 14.6250783732552 |
| 109 | 73 | 65.2423194591332 | 7.75768054086677 |
| 110 | 78 | 74.8683241257462 | 3.13167587425376 |
| 111 | 87 | 78.948350674488 | 8.05164932551202 |
| 112 | 87 | 81.6328093937419 | 5.36719060625806 |
| 113 | 91 | 110.822142408706 | -19.8221424087059 |
| 114 | 104 | 118.864830003997 | -14.8648300039972 |
| 115 | 73 | 62.9584714041431 | 10.0415285958569 |
| 116 | 84 | 85.1059561337918 | -1.10595613379181 |
| 117 | 103 | 100.885862847317 | 2.11413715268318 |
| 118 | 111 | 92.696727952884 | 18.3032720471161 |
| 119 | 131 | 144.705635126675 | -13.7056351266745 |
| 120 | 155 | 153.549940015822 | 1.4500599841777 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 121 | 113.160167846310 | 100.882829002242 | 125.437506690379 |
| 122 | 119.191249417548 | 103.011611990825 | 135.370886844272 |
| 123 | 122.860746197940 | 103.174515090349 | 142.546977305532 |
| 124 | 118.070439283392 | 96.0733979277513 | 140.067480639033 |
| 125 | 145.862307720869 | 116.524862847368 | 175.199752594370 |
| 126 | 175.438910078245 | 137.800668843947 | 213.077151312543 |
| 127 | 104.957803906518 | 78.905076171792 | 131.010531641243 |
| 128 | 125.755668064754 | 92.3688327937673 | 159.142503335740 |
| 129 | 150.286273132161 | 108.078689547376 | 192.493856716946 |
| 130 | 139.298549589954 | 97.5094619666208 | 181.087637213287 |
| 131 | 184.209649024615 | 126.568799455319 | 241.850498593910 |
| 132 | 209.099935895541 | 141.799453764276 | 276.400418026806 |
