| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 0.312591008980173 |
| beta | 0.140711984725360 |
| gamma | 1 |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 13 | 24 | 26.3878205128205 | -2.38782051282053 |
| 14 | 21 | 22.4469280703411 | -1.44692807034106 |
| 15 | 15 | 14.6948399120256 | 0.305160087974350 |
| 16 | 21 | 18.9621946506821 | 2.03780534931794 |
| 17 | 49 | 45.4857922020282 | 3.51420779797183 |
| 18 | 48 | 43.2088067065506 | 4.79119329344939 |
| 19 | 35 | 37.4167374760649 | -2.41673747606485 |
| 20 | 36 | 28.2235663010092 | 7.77643369899084 |
| 21 | 51 | 33.8504042340795 | 17.1495957659205 |
| 22 | 50 | 42.0365384915958 | 7.96346150840424 |
| 23 | 61 | 48.0347783599471 | 12.9652216400529 |
| 24 | 63 | 56.8334693212053 | 6.16653067879469 |
| 25 | 61 | 57.0534447021164 | 3.94655529788356 |
| 26 | 62 | 58.4995867099273 | 3.50041329007271 |
| 27 | 58 | 56.4761920324154 | 1.52380796758464 |
| 28 | 65 | 65.3469215664832 | -0.346921566483189 |
| 29 | 93 | 95.066474805018 | -2.06647480501803 |
| 30 | 94 | 94.6038689715942 | -0.603868971594153 |
| 31 | 86 | 84.614291484125 | 1.38570851587494 |
| 32 | 88 | 86.2275961011497 | 1.77240389885026 |
| 33 | 102 | 98.7677229706117 | 3.23227702938829 |
| 34 | 107 | 98.0235385734672 | 8.97646142653278 |
| 35 | 121 | 109.555986433162 | 11.4440135668382 |
| 36 | 127 | 114.918067778019 | 12.0819322219815 |
| 37 | 125 | 117.433691822238 | 7.56630817776154 |
| 38 | 128 | 121.836448291654 | 6.16355170834557 |
| 39 | 117 | 121.535723698735 | -4.5357236987348 |
| 40 | 127 | 129.208744717578 | -2.20874471757821 |
| 41 | 160 | 159.064782473613 | 0.935217526386936 |
| 42 | 162 | 162.578427468024 | -0.578427468023733 |
| 43 | 153 | 155.998115664341 | -2.99811566434119 |
| 44 | 160 | 158.347729758693 | 1.65227024130724 |
| 45 | 177 | 173.689385345459 | 3.31061465454076 |
| 46 | 178 | 178.757289793167 | -0.757289793167416 |
| 47 | 196 | 190.354127291890 | 5.64587270810952 |
| 48 | 212 | 195.498095208953 | 16.5019047910471 |
| 49 | 212 | 197.641518449603 | 14.3584815503967 |
| 50 | 211 | 204.852171709063 | 6.14782829093696 |
| 51 | 204 | 198.840054277366 | 5.15994572263395 |
| 52 | 216 | 213.218207869913 | 2.78179213008718 |
| 53 | 248 | 249.089707968217 | -1.08970796821694 |
| 54 | 250 | 253.135096802614 | -3.13509680261444 |
| 55 | 240 | 246.185032381257 | -6.18503238125749 |
| 56 | 249 | 252.687739205703 | -3.68773920570348 |
| 57 | 275 | 269.217811945876 | 5.78218805412376 |
| 58 | 277 | 274.08840205953 | 2.91159794047019 |
| 59 | 286 | 293.221477618580 | -7.22147761857957 |
| 60 | 302 | 303.227572561421 | -1.22757256142074 |
| 61 | 290 | 298.997486764376 | -8.9974867643757 |
| 62 | 290 | 292.877852730668 | -2.87785273066805 |
| 63 | 277 | 282.582967183926 | -5.58296718392558 |
| 64 | 285 | 290.713346351007 | -5.71334635100698 |
| 65 | 311 | 319.639505059182 | -8.63950505918217 |
| 66 | 300 | 317.958262924178 | -17.9582629241781 |
| 67 | 291 | 301.665441877772 | -10.6654418777717 |
| 68 | 299 | 305.674587565542 | -6.67458756554169 |
| 69 | 332 | 324.839646887358 | 7.16035311264159 |
| 70 | 337 | 325.287323940258 | 11.7126760597415 |
| 71 | 343 | 337.712642602145 | 5.28735739785526 |
| 72 | 360 | 353.806028467815 | 6.19397153218483 |
| 73 | 353 | 344.938057933809 | 8.06194206619085 |
| 74 | 351 | 347.49141973338 | 3.50858026662013 |
| 75 | 341 | 336.747945209618 | 4.25205479038237 |
| 76 | 348 | 347.710225897421 | 0.289774102578519 |
| 77 | 381 | 376.612673231963 | 4.38732676803681 |
| 78 | 358 | 373.281927734667 | -15.2819277346667 |
| 79 | 353 | 363.640799246914 | -10.6407992469138 |
| 80 | 358 | 371.204024533344 | -13.2040245333438 |
| 81 | 399 | 398.354131323248 | 0.645868676752343 |
| 82 | 409 | 400.124033422123 | 8.87596657787685 |
| 83 | 407 | 407.350313450249 | -0.350313450248791 |
| 84 | 419 | 422.161167217467 | -3.16116721746681 |
| 85 | 418 | 411.097973979096 | 6.90202602090386 |
| 86 | 421 | 409.552765171137 | 11.4472348288627 |
| 87 | 414 | 401.545128431635 | 12.4548715683648 |
| 88 | 424 | 412.451846562614 | 11.5481534373855 |
| 89 | 463 | 448.289477843102 | 14.7105221568984 |
| 90 | 437 | 435.718138122637 | 1.28186187736293 |
| 91 | 430 | 436.226908175786 | -6.22690817578598 |
| 92 | 436 | 445.383891728934 | -9.3838917289342 |
| 93 | 474 | 485.392708207393 | -11.3927082073935 |
| 94 | 489 | 490.671411677834 | -1.6714116778345 |
| 95 | 482 | 489.40902761187 | -7.40902761187016 |
| 96 | 492 | 500.921284338081 | -8.92128433808057 |
| 97 | 502 | 495.5617989935 | 6.43820100650044 |
| 98 | 500 | 497.562357779892 | 2.43764222010827 |
| 99 | 493 | 487.60111002836 | 5.39888997163956 |
| 100 | 504 | 495.53859415838 | 8.46140584162049 |
| 101 | 538 | 532.309093662436 | 5.690906337564 |
| 102 | 516 | 507.014507877921 | 8.985492122079 |
| 103 | 502 | 504.435800492344 | -2.43580049234362 |
| 104 | 501 | 512.440497412423 | -11.4404974124232 |
| 105 | 541 | 550.167884585948 | -9.1678845859476 |
| 106 | 571 | 562.664739742437 | 8.33526025756282 |
| 107 | 559 | 560.866594239744 | -1.86659423974424 |
| 108 | 569 | 573.595944203855 | -4.59594420385486 |
| 109 | 576 | 580.861138276491 | -4.86113827649149 |
| 110 | 573 | 576.796968931272 | -3.79696893127243 |
| 111 | 562 | 566.865558683047 | -4.86555868304686 |
| 112 | 570 | 573.191317093755 | -3.19131709375461 |
| 113 | 597 | 603.393913078432 | -6.39391307843232 |
| 114 | 573 | 575.033994035413 | -2.03399403541266 |
| 115 | 562 | 559.122444448725 | 2.87755555127546 |
| 116 | 556 | 560.794697965195 | -4.79469796519504 |
| 117 | 600 | 600.65059316829 | -0.650593168289788 |
| 118 | 630 | 626.705208193313 | 3.29479180668727 |
| 119 | 624 | 614.960416555852 | 9.03958344414764 |
| 120 | 634 | 628.344276903117 | 5.65572309688298 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 121 | 638.204192887778 | 624.201608526867 | 652.206777248689 |
| 122 | 636.177349545383 | 621.311202883193 | 651.043496207573 |
| 123 | 626.651548574078 | 610.762494145502 | 642.540603002654 |
| 124 | 635.816407799673 | 618.751524090595 | 652.881291508752 |
| 125 | 665.122740779326 | 646.737811686329 | 683.507669872324 |
| 126 | 642.347440459369 | 622.507913727433 | 662.186967191304 |
| 127 | 631.126299738903 | 609.707323324408 | 652.545276153399 |
| 128 | 627.176866338428 | 604.062769083514 | 650.29096359334 |
| 129 | 672.142919272718 | 647.22641209767 | 697.059426447765 |
| 130 | 701.904296873383 | 675.085576743761 | 728.723017003005 |
| 131 | 693.724981849439 | 664.910845809426 | 722.539117889452 |
| 132 | 702.20582234445 | 671.308847186826 | 733.102797502074 |
